386 FXUS62 KTAE 011935 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 235 PM EST MON DEC 1 2008 .SYNOPSIS...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING STRATOCUMULUS FIELD ACROSS NORTHERN LA/SOUTHWESTERN MS. THESE AREA OF CLOUDS INDICATE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT WILL LEAD TO RAIN CHANCES FOR TONIGHT. THE VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE POSITION OF THE SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA. THE PACE OF THIS SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE RIGHT ON SCHEDULE WITH WHAT WAS INDICATED IN THE MODELS THIS AFTERNOON...SO GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES AFTER SUNSET ARE STILL LOOKING GOOD FOR OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE SLOWLY WARMED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE LOWER 60S IN PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA...BUT GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE. THE WINDS HAVEN'T MADE IT MUCH BETTER AS IT HAS FELT DOWNRIGHT CHILLY WITH WINDS SUSTAINING AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH AT TIMES TODAY. && .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT). FORECAST THIS CYCLE LARGELY CENTERED ON THE FIRST 18 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND THE BASE OF THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED EAST COAST TROF. AS WE'VE BEEN MENTIONING FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS NOW...TIMING IS EVERYTHING WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS IT APPEARS THAT THE GFS HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON TIMING AND TRACK...WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON ITS SOLUTION FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. TONIGHT...AS FORCED ASCENT INCREASES AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT TO SEE AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOP OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS AND SPREAD TOWARD THE COAST AFTER 00Z. AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH OUR CWA...THE AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP WILL SPREAD MAINLY INTO THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY 06-08Z AS MUCH OF THE MOISTURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. RH TIME HEIGHTS SHOW THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR PRECIP...IF NOT THE LIFT...ENDING BY THIS TIME. AT VLD...SOME OF THIS MOISTURE LINGERS TOWARD 12Z...BUT THE DIFFICULTY FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION...WHICH WOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW FLURRIES GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF A SECONDARY FREEZING LAYER CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...WILL BE THE NARROW WARM LAYER FROM 925 MB DOWN TOWARD THE SURFACE. I'VE LOOKED AT SOME MODEL DATA THAT SUPPORTS IT...BUT THE PREPONDERANCE OF THE DATA I'VE LOOKED AT...UP TO AND INCLUDING THE 01/18Z RUC WOULD ARGUE AGAINST IT. THE 01/18Z RUC SHOWS 925MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 5C AT 03Z...WITH NOT MUCH HOPE FOR THEM LOWERING MORE PRIOR TO THE MOISTURE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...WILL WORD THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ONLY LIGHT RAIN...BUT I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE RECEIVE REPORTS OF FLURRIES MIXING WITH RAIN OVER OUR GEORGIA COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 75. I APPRECIATE THE COORDINATION EFFORTS WITH JAX TODAY ON THIS MOST DIFFICULT FORECAST. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION AND MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY EVENING. WITH THE RIDGE POSITION LIKELY SETTING UP OVER THE FLORIDA EAST COAST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...IT ISN'T IN THE BEST POSITION FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES. THUS...WILL RUN A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THE MAV FOR TEMPERATURES. NEVERTHELESS...IT LOOKS LIKE A LIGHT FREEZE FOR MOST INLAND AREAS WITH WIDESPREAD FROST ACROSS THE BOARD. WEDNESDAY...THINGS BEGIN TO TRANSITION AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S IS EXPECTED. LOW AT NIGHT WILL MODERATE CONSIDERABLY...AND RETURN TO THE 40S IN THE WEST AND UPPER 30S IN THE EAST. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY). THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LATEST GFS AND 30/12Z EURO WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN OUR NWRN ZONES BY AROUND SUNRISE AND THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY. WILL TREND POPS UPWARD TO THE LOW CHANCE (30) CATEGORY FOR THE NW ZONES ON THURSDAY AND TO SLIGHT CHANCE (20) ALL ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES. A FEW OF THE NORMALLY COLDEST LOCATIONS COULD SEE A BRIEF FREEZE SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT...THE HIGH SLIPS EAST OF THE AREA AND WE BEGIN TO SEE A GRADUAL RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE EURO ESSENTIALLY RETURNS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NWD ON SATURDAY AND THEN SHUNTS THE SYSTEM DECIDEDLY DOWN THE PENINSULA FOR A DRY AND COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE GFS SHOWS A FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS WITH GULF MOISTURE RETURNING NWD AHEAD OF IT. WE WILL GO WITH THIS SOLUTION AND BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...INCREASING TO LOW CHANCE FOR MONDAY. && .AVIATION...THE PARTLY CLOUDY...VERY BREEZY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE W TO WSW WINDS SUBSIDING TO GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS AROUND SUNSET. THIS EVENING...A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH SOME COLD LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH SPRINKLES WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AT EACH TAF SITE...THE BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE AT VLD AND TLH...SO INCLUDED TEMPOS AT THESE 2 TERMINALS. ALSO...CIGS AND VIS ARE FCST TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL LOCATIONS...WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED FROM NW TO SE ON TUESDAY MORNING. && .MARINE...SCA WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS BEGINNING TO SLACK OFF OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS BY 12Z. WILL END THE SCA OVER THE INNER LEGS AT THAT TIME ON TUESDAY. SEAS WILL NOT DIMINISH OFFSHORE UNTIL 00Z WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE OFFSHORE SCA UNTIL THAT TIME. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATER AND REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. && .FIRE WEATHER...MARGINAL DURATIONS OF RH TOMORROW IN NORTH FLORIDA DO NOT LOOK TO SUPPORT THE ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH OR RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT CLOSELY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TALLAHASSEE 34 57 30 63 41 / 40 0 0 0 5 PANAMA CITY 40 57 39 64 50 / 30 0 0 0 10 DOTHAN 33 54 33 63 44 / 10 0 0 0 10 ALBANY 32 54 29 62 40 / 20 0 0 0 10 VALDOSTA 35 54 28 62 37 / 40 0 0 0 0 CROSS CITY 37 57 28 66 37 / 70 5 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...HOUSTON. GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS... CALHOUN...CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY... EARLY...GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER... MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL... THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER...WORTH. FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...COASTAL WALTON... DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY... MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON. RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...COASTAL WALTON... DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY... MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON. HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...COASTAL WALTON...FRANKLIN...GULF. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FROM DESTIN TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER ENTRANCE OUT TO 20 NAUTICAL MILES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FROM DESTIN TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER ENTRANCE BETWEEN 20 AND 60 NAUTICAL MILES. && $$ LONG TERM...WOOL AVIATION...GOULD REST OF DISCUSSION...GODSEY