409 FXUS63 KSGF 012305 AFDSGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 505 PM CST MON DEC 1 2008 ...UPDATE TO AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... NO REAL CHANGES IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A STEADY PARADE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRAVERSING THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EVERY OTHER DAY OR SO. OUR BEST SHOT AT PRECIPITATION WILL BE WITH THE FIRST FRONT SCHEDULED FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WAS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS...ALONG WITH FIRE WEATHER ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE. TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WILL USHER IN A WARMER AIRMASS WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SOARING THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS...WITH MAYBE EVEN SOME DOUBLE DIGITS OUT WEST. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S OVER MOST AREAS...WITH NEAR 60 DEGREE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 71 CORRIDOR. BRISK AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CREATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS. WE ARE LOOKING AT SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI...WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. THINK WE WILL STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THAT SURFACE LOW WILL PULL EAST AS A PAIR OF PHASED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DIG SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR BY MIDDAY AND THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SUSPECT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR RAIN TO DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE THERE WILL BE BETTER MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A QUICK CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. COULD SEE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE ANY SNOW TAPERS OFF. THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO REAL GOOD SIGNALS FOR PRECIP AS THE MIDWEEK FRONT COMPLETELY SHUTS DOWN THE GULF. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ONE OR TWO OF THESE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION...BUT IT WOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. GENERALLY KEPT POPS IN THE 10 PERCENT RANGE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO DEPICT A SCENARIO EARLY NEXT WEEK SIMILAR TO THE ONE THIS WEDNESDAY. THREW IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY FOR STARTERS. SCHAUMANN && .AVIATION... FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SKY WAS CLEARING OUT EARLY THIS EVENING AND SHOULD HAVE SKC THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH STEADY 8 TO 10 KT WINDS BY 12Z EXPECTED. WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE TOWARDS DAYBREAK WILL BE AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS SO WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT BOTH LOCATIONS INTRODUCED IN PREVIOUS TAF CYCLE. WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AT BOTH LOCATIONS WITH WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. LINDENBERG && .FIRE WEATHER... WINDS WILL TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND QUICKLY INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH WILL BE COMMON DURING PEAK MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...MILD TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE 20S WILL DROP MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INTO THE 30 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE SAME AREAS. SUSPECT THERE WILL EVEN BE SOME LOCATIONS THAT DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. 10 HOUR FUELS OVER THE OSAGE PLAINS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS...BUT WOULD SUSPECT THOSE WILL QUICKLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND PERHAPS UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON SUB 30 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND 10 HOUR FUELS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS...FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED. SCHAUMANN && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$