539 NOUS70 KSEW 012320 OEPZSE TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CWSU AUBURN WA 300 PM PST MON DEC 01 2008 .DISCUSSION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED TROF WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO BOTH SEA AND PDX BETWEEN 00Z-02Z AND TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER FROPA BETWEEN 04Z-06Z. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS 5-10 KNOTS...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BRIEFLY NEAR THE TIME OF FROPA. EXPECT CEILINGS BETWEEN 030-050 TO LOWER TO 010-030 THIS EVENING AND REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH FORECAST CONDITIONS...ARRIVAL RATES AT SEA AND PDX SHOULD NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY THIS EVENING. && KSEA CURRENT ARRIVAL RATE...40 SOUTH FLOW KSEA WX DELAYS....LOW CIGS, RAIN IMPORTANT NUMBERS FOR KSEA............. CIG/WX VSBY AAR IMPACT >6000 >10 48-52 NO ARTCC PROBLEMS 4100-6000 >6 44-46 LMTD VAPS (METER DELAYS) 3000-4000 >6 40-44 LMTD/NO VAPS (TMA, CFR) 1000-3000 >6 40-44 NO VAPS (TMA, CFR AND/OR GDP) 100-900 1-5 30-38 MOD DELAYS (TMA, CFR, AND/OR GDP) <100 <1 28-30 MAJOR DELAYS (TMA, CFR, AND/OR GDP) FZRA/FZDZ/SN 00-28 MAJOR DELAYS FOR PLOWING/DEICING (TMA,CFR, AND/OR GDP) TSRA VRBL DELAYS (TMA,CFR,GS AND/OR GDP) WINDS(2-6K)>30KT 24-32 MAJOR DELAYS (TMA,CFR AND/OR GDP) WINDSHIFTS 20MIN DELAYS/RWY SWITCH/FLOW CHG && KPDX CURRENT ARRIVAL RATE...40 EAST FLOW KPDX WX DELAYS....LOW CIGS, RAIN IMPORTANT NUMBERS FOR KPDX.... CIG/WX VSBY AAR IMPACT >4100 >6 60 NO ARTCC PROBLEMS 1000-4000 >6 40 LMTD/NO VAPS (TMA,CFR AND/OR GDP) 100-900 >1-5 24 MOD DELAYS (TMA,CFR AND/OR GDP) <100 <1 24 MOD DELAYS (TMA,CFR AND/OR GDP) FZRA/FZDZ/SN 20 MAJOR DELAYS FOR PLOWING/DEICING (TMA,CFR, AND/OR GDP) TSRA VRB DELAYS (TMA,CFR,GS AND/OR GDP) SFC WD 170-230 DEG, 32 MOD DELAYS (TMA,CFR AND/OR GDP) WS>20KT, CIG>=4000 FT SFC WD 170-230 DEG, 24 MOD DELAYS (TMA,CFP AND/OR GDP) WS>20KT, CIG<4000 FT SFC WINDSHIFTS 10MIN DELAYS/RWY SWITCH/FLOW CHG STG E SFC WINDS WITH 48 PSBL MINOR DELAYS STG S-SW WINDS ABV 1500 FT AGL && MIT=MILES IN TRAIL GDP=GROUND DELAY PROGRAM GS=GROUND STOP CFR=CALL FOR RELEASE TMA=TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT ADVISOR VAPS=VISUAL APPROACHES $$ END