567 FXUS65 KREV 012308 AFDREV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV 310 PM PST MON DEC 1 2008 .SHORT TERM... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO OREGON. EXCEPTIONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE LED TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS. WINDS ARE JUST STARTING TO MIX DOWN LATE THIS AFTERNOON SO A SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING THE 66 DEGREE RECORD IS STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THE VALLEY INVERSION MIXES OUT. AS THE LOW APPROACHES OVERNIGHT...RIDGE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND WILL BE BREEZY IN THE VALLEYS. DID DROP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS AS DECOUPLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO QUICKLY DROP AS INVERSIONS SET BACK IN. KEPT THE MENTION OF SPRINKLES GOING NEAR THE OREGON BORDER AS SHALLOW MOISTURE AND WEAK FRONTOGENESIS COULD SQUEEZE OUT VERY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS. AS THE LOW TRACKS EAST OVER FAR NORTHERN NEVADA TUESDAY...A COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SET UP AND DROP TEMPS SOME TEN DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS AND CLOSER TO NORMAL. ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW WEDNESDAY AND MOVE SOUTH DOWN THE CNTRL CA COAST THURSDAY. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE AS IT RETROGRADES WEST AWAY FROM THE COAST BEFORE STALLING. MAIN INFLUENCE WILL BE TO TRY AND BRING SOME CLOUD COVER INTO THE AREA. OVERALL...VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH MILD CONDITIONS. MILNE .LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... QUIET WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CUT OFF LOW WELL OFF THE SRN CA COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG INVERSIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP THE VALLEYS COOL UNDER NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOW KEEPING THE SHORT WAVE THAT WAS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS NERN NV ON SUNDAY FURTHER NORTH WITH LESS INFLUENCE ON WEATHER ACROSS NV AND NERN CA. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION. THEREFORE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT SOME CLOUDS WILL BRUSH THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA. ONLY A DEGREE OR SO OF COOLING IS EXPECTED OVER NRN AREAS ON SUNDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES. MODEL DISCREPANCIES APPEAR BY MONDAY AS THE GFS AND ENSEMBLES BUILD THE RIDGE BACK NORTH ALONG OR JUST OFF THE WEST COAST WHILE THE EUROPEAN TRIES TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT AND BRING MORE ZONAL FLOW AND SOME CLOUD COVER TO THE AREA SOUTH OF A PAC NW SHORT WAVE. THEREFORE LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE FORECAST WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. GMCGUIRE && .AVIATION... ONLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE. RIDGE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 60-65 KTS EXPECTED 03Z-12Z OVER THE SIERRA. STRONG WINDS WILL NOT COMPLETELY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH ONLY GUSTS 20-25 KTS EXPECTED AT KRNO THROUGH 05Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY WITH SPEEDS 5-8 KTS THROUGH 00Z. FZFG IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AT KTRK DUE TO INCREASED MIXING AND AN INCREASED TEMP/DEWPT SPREAD. GMCGUIRE && .REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE. CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE. && $$ HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO