382 FXUS61 KPHI 062017 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 417 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008 .SYNOPSIS... TROPICAL STORM HANNA WILL RAPIDLY MAKE ITS WAY THOUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY A WEAK COLD FRONT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROCHES BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... TROPICAL STORM HANNA IS NOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. AS THE STORM MOVES THROUGH, HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORM, BEFORE RAPIDLY TAPPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. BY SUNRISE TOMORROW, ALL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE AREA AS THE STORM RACES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE HEAVY RAINFALL IS MOVING THROUGH COULD CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS. WITH PW VALUES OVER 2.5 INCHES, SOME OF THIS RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS EVENING, AND COME DOWN IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. DRIVERS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR HIGH WATER ON LOCAL ROADWAYS DURING ANY OF THESE DOWNPOURS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING, TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING, AND WIND ADVISROY ALL REMAIN IN EFFECT. THE STORM IS STILL PRODUCING SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS IT IS MOVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND COULD GIVE OUR AREA SOME STRONG WINDS AS WE GO THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. FOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON TROPICAL STORM HANNA, PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AFTER TROPICAL STORM HANNA MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT, SUNDAY SHOULD PROVIDE A FAIRLY NICE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS TO START THE DAY OFF, BUT THEY SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUR DURING THE DAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY. THIS SHOULD PREVENT ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WITH THE ONGOING SITUATION RELATED TO THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA, THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WE ONCE AGAIN USED HPC GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT AND MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY, MOST LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL WELL OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY IMPACT THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION... WE ARE IN THE MIDST OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA. MVFR CONDS PREVAIL BUT DROP TO IFR AND LOCALLY TO LIFR IN THE HEAVIER RAIN. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE STORM MOVES NORTH OF OUR AREA LATER THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE WORST TO BE OVER BY 10 TO 11 PM AND ALL PRECIPITATION TO HAVE ENDED BY 2 AM. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. CLEARING IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CLOUDS GOING TO SCT AT THE TAF SITES. BLUSTERY SE TO E WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO NE, N, AND THEN NW EXCEPT FOR ACY, WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE JUST EAST OF THE CENTER. AT ACY, THE WINDS WILL GO FROM SE TO S TO SW AND THEN TO WNW. A SPEED WIND SHEAR IS IN THE TAFS, EXCEPT FOR OUR FAR NW SITES RDG AND ABE. THE SHEAR WILL ALSO END DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE STORM MOVES OFF TO THE NE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND HANNA WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, WHEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN WITH ANOTHER POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS. && .MARINE... WINDS ARE INCREASING AHEAD OF HANNA THIS AFTERNOON. IF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS CORRECT, HANNA WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NJ AND REACH THE COAST SOMEWHERE NEAR LONG BEACH ISLAND. THIS WILL PRESENT A VERY DIFFERENT SCENARIO DEPENDING ON WHETHER ONE IS NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE STORM. NORTH OF THE STORM, WINDS WILL GO FROM SE TO E TO NE TO N AND THEN NW. SOUTH OF THE STORM, THEY'LL GO FROM SE TO S TO SW AND THEN TO WNW. WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR 55 KT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FT ON THE OCEAN AND SURF WAVE HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 9 FT WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF AFTER THE STORM CENTER PASSES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AT THAT TIME. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS SLATED TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE FRONTAL ZONE. && .RIP CURRENTS... THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY, AS HANNA APPROACHES, SHOULD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE STORM MOVES TO OUR NORTHEAST AND FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. HOWEVER, SWELLS FROM IKE MAY BEGIN TO ARRIVE ABOUT THAT TIME. EVEN IF THAT DOES NOT OCCUR, THE EXPECTED NORTHEAST FETCH MIGHT INCREASE RIP CURRENTS AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY. && .TIDES AND COASTAL FLOODING... WE ARE EXTREMELY FORTUNATE THAT HANNA IS ARRIVING DURING THE NEAP TIDE CYCLE. ALSO, THE HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TODAY ALONG THE OCEAN-FRONT HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED OR ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING. THERE IS A BETTER COINCIDENCE OF WINDS AND TIDES IN THE BAYS AND THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER THAN ON THE OCEAN. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY WHERE A SURGE OF 1 TO AROUND 3 FEET IS EXPECTED. THIS COULD PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING IN SOME AREAS. DRAINAGE FLOODING ON THE BACK BAYS COULD ALSO OCCUR AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE IF HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO OCCURRING. LASTLY, MINOR TIDAL FLOODING MIGHT PERSIST INTO SUNDAY ALONG TIDAL SECTIONS OF THE DELAWARE RIVER BECAUSE OF THE FRESHWATER RUNOFF. .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ054-055-060>062- 067>071. TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ067>071. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055- 060>062. NJ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>015- 017>020-022-025>027. TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-015-017>019. FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NJZ016-021-023-024. TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NJZ013-014-016-020>027. DE...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR DEZ001>004. TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR DEZ001>004. MD...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ008-012-015-019- 020. TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020. MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANZ430-431-450>455-470. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON LONG TERM...MEOLA AVIATION...RPW MARINE...RPW RIP CURRENTS...RPW TIDES AND COASTAL FLOODING...RPW