481 FXUS62 KMFL 020529 AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 1229 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2008 .AVIATION... MID LEVEL CLDS WITH CIGS 10-12K FT CONTINUE TO ADVANCE ACROSS SOUTH FL AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. ISOLD SHRA WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH A SCT CU DECK 3-5K FT WHICH MAY FORM CIGS FOR A BRIEF TIME. CLEARING TREND TO START TOWARDS MID DAY TOMORROW. LIGHT/VRBL WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...AND PATCHY FOG COULD FORM AT KTMB AS HAS ALREADY HAPPENED THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD. WINDS TO BECOME WNW ALL TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE. /STRASSBERG && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 902 PM EST MON DEC 1 2008/ UPDATE... NO CHANGES PLANNED TO EVENING UPDATES WITH ALL PARAMETERS ON TRACK. MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE NORTHEAST GOFMEX AND THIS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SO WITH THIS IN PLACE, ABUNDANT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE STREAMING ACROSS S FLA IN SW FLOW ABOVE SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS AT THE SFC. THIS IS SEEN ON THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING WITH N WINDS ONLY UP TO ABOUT 4K FT BECOMING SW AT 40 TO 50 KT ABOVE THAT LEVEL. TEMPS ARE RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE BUT MINIMUM TEMPS ALREADY REFLECT THIS SO DO NOT PLAN TO CHANGE THESE NUMBERS. ONLY PRECIP ECHOES SHOWING UP ON RADAR ARE ZIPPING OFF THE SE CST INTO THE BAHAMAS BUT WITH ONLY ISOLD POPS, DO NOT PLAN TO LOWER THESE NUMBERS EITHER. MARINE ZONES LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. 30/KOB PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 826 PM EST MON DEC 1 2008/ AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH 03/00Z. LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY NW WINDS ARND 10 KTS BY 11-12Z. SFC WNDS COULD GUST TO ARND 15 KTS OVER KAPF FROM MIDMORNING ON. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM EST MON DEC 1 2008/ DISCUSSION... THERE IS A SECONDARY FRONT IN CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH IS WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND SHOULD LARGELY PASS JUST TO THE NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WHILE THE SHOWERS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT FOR MOSTLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE FOR THE LOW TEMPS THAT WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE COLDEST TEMPS EXPECTED ARE FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH THE NAPLES METRO AREA EXPECTED TO HAVE LOWS IN THE MID 40S...UPPER 40S FOR THE PALM BEACH METRO AREAS AND LOWER 50S FOR THE MIAMI AND FT LAUDERDALE METRO AREAS. TEMPS WILL START TO REBOUND ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MARINE... THERE IS A LOT OF VARIABILITY IN THE RECENT GUIDANCE FOR THE WINDS OVER THE LOCAL GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS IN GENERAL WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...BUT LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. NORTH TO NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE ARE FORECAST TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE LOCAL GULFSTREAM SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 7 FEET AT THAT TIME. FIRE WEATHER... SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS S. FLORIDA TUESDAY...WITH MINIMUM RH'S EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. WEDNESDAY DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION...BUT THE SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE EASTERLY WHICH SHOULD BRING SOME MOISTURE ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND KEEP MINIMUM RH'S ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 69 49 72 61 / 20 - - - FORT LAUDERDALE 72 56 74 64 / 10 - - - MIAMI 72 54 74 63 / 10 - - - NAPLES 69 46 74 56 / 10 - - - && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ LONG TERM...30/KOB SHORT TERM/AVIATION...47/RHG