702 
FXUS65 KLKN 230859
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1259 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2008

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL START
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ONSHORE INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IR IMAGERY REVEALING SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE SILVER STATE. THIS HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT IN
THE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DIGGING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WILL TURN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
TO THE SOUTH WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING ON MONDAY
THAT THE MODELS ARE NOT ACCOUNTING FOR.

BY TUESDAY...THE LOW WILL BE CUTOFF OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND
WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE COAST SOUTH OF SAN FRANSISCO. AS THE
SYSTEM PENETRATES INLAND...MODELS ARE INDICATING IT WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARDS AND SKIM SOUTHERN NEVADA. HAVE KEPT MOST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OUT OF THE SHORT TERM UNTIL TUESDAY MID DAY. HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER MOST OF THE CWA AS A LEAD INTO THE LONG TERM AND
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WAS THE MAIN CHANGE IN
THE SHORT TERM OTHER THEN ALLOWING FOR SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODEL DISAGREEMENT APPEARS
BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL AFFECT THE OUTCOME AND TIMING
OF PROPOSED STRONG LOW TO DROP INTO THE REGION. WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE...AND WITH THANKSGIVING PLANS HANGING IN THE
BALANCE...WILL NOT BE MAKING MANY CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

THE NAM MODEL HAS SHOWERS ENTERING THE LKN CWA DOMAIN BY MID-DAY
TUESDAY WITH A STRONG LOBE CENTERED ALONG A NEARLY OPEN TROUGH
AXIS CREATING A RAPID EJECTION OF MAIN FEATURE BY THURSDAY. GFS
CLOSES A LOW OFF AS IT SLOWLY MOVES INLAND OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SHOWS MOST
PRECIPITATION PULLING SOUTH AWAY FROM THE CWA. GFS ALSO SHOWS A
VERY STRONG SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CARVING OUT THE TROUGH
BY LATE WEEK TO BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR. THE ECMWF MODEL BEGINS
THE LONG TERM WITH A SIMILAR SOLUTION TO GFS...HOWEVER SECONDARY
LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH AS AN OPEN WAVE. AGAIN...NOT MANY CHANGES
WILL BE MADE TO CURRENT FORECAST. &&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD VFR CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT
WIND REGIME THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

97/92/92