793 FXUS64 KHUN 230944 AFDHUN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 344 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2008 .DISCUSSION... TROF #1 WHICH BROUGHT THE CLOUD COVER LATE SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING ACROSS OUR CWA...IS NOW MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. WEAK UPPER RIDGE FOLLOWING BEHIND TROF #1 WAS DISSIPATING THE CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF THE TN VALLEY ATTM. HOWEVER...TROF #2 NOW OVER WRN TX...WAS BEGINNING TO PULL PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE SRN PLAINS ON A FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL 8H JET. THUS EXPECT MORE CLOUD COVER TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN. THIS WILL NO DOUBT PLAY HAVOC WITH AFTN HIGHS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FOR TODAY. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL GO WITH LOWER 50S IN NWRN ZONES AND MID 50S IN TN ZONES/NERN ZONES...TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SW TO NE. TONIGHT...ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH THIS EVENING TO KEEP POPS OUT OF FCST. BUT TROF #3 NOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL QUICKLY MOVE SE AND MERGE WITH TROF #2 AFTER MIDNIGHT...INCREASING THE CHC OF PCPN. THUS WILL KEEP CURRENT POPS FOR 2ND PERIOD AS IS...AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WHOLE MESS WILL DRAG A CDFNT THRU THE CWA BY MONDAY AFTN...AND ALL MODELS SHOW THAT PCPN WILL BE OVER BY MONDAY EVENING... DUE TO THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF TROF #3. REST OF FCST...KEPT TUESDAY THRU THANKSGIVING DRY DUE TO RIDGING. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST FROM THANKSGIVING ONWARD DROPS. ECMWF SHOWS A DRY THANKSGIVING BUT GFS HINTS AT A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN. AS FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY...BOTH ECMWF/GFS SHOWS THAT THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHC OF PCPN...THUS WILL KEEP LOW POPS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. ANY SVR WX LOOKS VERY IFFY ATTM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... HUNTSVILLE 54 45 56 36 51 / 0 40 80 10 0 SHOALS 53 46 57 35 51 / 0 40 80 10 0 CULLMAN 55 45 57 37 50 / 0 30 80 10 0 FAYETTEVILLE 55 44 55 36 49 / 0 30 80 10 0 ALBERTVILLE 54 47 57 38 50 / 0 20 80 10 0 FORT PAYNE 55 44 55 37 50 / 0 20 80 10 0 && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ 07