951 AXUS74 KHUN 211452 AAB DGTHUN ALC049-071-089-095-TNC051-020000- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 850 AM CDT FRI OCT 21 2008 ...RAIN KEEPS DROUGHT CONDITIONS LARGELY UNCHANGED... SYNOPSIS... ACCORDING TO THE DROUGHT MONITOR VALID ON NOVEMBER 18TH...ONLY EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF JACKSON AND DE KALB COUNTIES REMAIN IN SEVERE DROUGHT /D2/. THE REST OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND A PORTION OF FRANKLIN COUNTY TENNESSEE...EAST OF A LINE FROM WINCHESTER TENNESSEE TO ARAB...REMAINS IN MODERATE DROUGHT /D1/. MOST OF THE REST OF THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY...EAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 43...IS CONSIDERED ONLY ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ DUE TO LONG TERM DEFICITS WHICH REMAIN. THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HUNTSVILLE. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... IN GENERAL...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT KNOWN IMPACTS RELATED TO THE DROUGHT SITUATION. GROUNDWATER AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO NEAR NORMAL IN MOST AREAS. FIRE DANGER IS RELATIVELY LOW...AND MOST CROPS ARE IN GOOD CONDITION OR ALREADY HARVESTED. FEDERAL...STATE AND LOCAL DECLARATIONS: AS OF THE LATEST DECLARATION FROM THE STATE OF ALABAMA...ON SEPTEMBER 26TH...A DROUGHT ADVISORY HAS BEEN DECLARED FOR ALL OF NORTH ALABAMA. THIS IS THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE FOUR-LEVEL DROUGHT DECLARATION SYSTEM IN ALABAMA. THE UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE HAS DESIGNATED 39 COUNTIES IN TENNESSEE AS PRIMARY NATURAL DISASTER AREAS FOR AGRICULTURE AS A RESULT OF THE DROUGHT. THESE COUNTIES INCLUDE FRANKLIN COUNTY TENNESSEE. FARMERS IN FRANKLIN COUNTY...AS WELL AS THE ADJOINING COUNTIES OF LINCOLN AND MOORE...AND ADJOINING ALABAMA COUNTIES OF MADISON AND JACKSON...MAY NOW APPLY FOR ASSISTANCE THROUGH THEIR LOCAL USDA FARM SERVICE AGENCY. HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS: A SMALL PORTION OF THE AREA IS BELOW THE 30TH PERCENTILE FOR SOIL MOISTURE. GROUNDWATER CONDITIONS ARE BETTER THAN THIS SAME TIME LAST YEAR... AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL. CLIMATE SUMMARY... SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAVE FALLEN SO FAR THIS MONTH...WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN. TOTALS FOR THE MONTH THROUGH NOVEMBER 17TH RANGE FROM ONE TO FIVE INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. THE LIGHEST AMOUNTS HAVE OCCURRED ON SAND MOUNTAIN AND IN EXTREME NORTHWEST ALABAMA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS OCCURRED IN TWO GENERAL SWATHS...ONE ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA BETWEEN RUSSELLVILLE AND THE ELK RIVER VALLEY...AND ANOTHER FROM SMITH LAKE TO HUNTSVILLE UP TO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. COMPARED TO NORMAL...THESE TOTALS ARE GENERALLY NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE GREATEST DEFICITS OVER SOUTHERN MARHSALL COUNTY AND ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI BORDER. AREAWIDE...RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE YEAR-TO-DATE GENERALLY RANGE FROM 30 TO 50 INCHES AREAWIDE...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. ALTHOUGH THIS IS STILL 6 TO 16 INCHES BELOW NORMAL...MUCH OF THAT DEFICIT WAS IN THE SPRING WITH DEFICITS OVER THE LAST SIX MONTHS BEING MUCH SMALLER. RAINFALL...RAINFALL DEFICITS...AND PERCENT OF NORMAL: HUNTSVILLE...THROUGH NOVEMBER 17TH: MONTH-TO-DATE ... 2.06 INCHES ... DEFICIT 0.72 INCH ... 74 PCT LAST 30 DAYS ... 2.87 INCHES ... DEFICIT 1.46 INCHES ... 66 PCT LAST 90 DAYS ... 10.84 INCHES ... DEFICIT 1.10 INCHES ... 91 PCT LAST 180 DAYS ... 17.57 INCHES ... DEFICIT 6.65 INCHES ... 73 PCT LAST 365 DAYS ... 39.17 INCHES ... DEFICIT 18.16 INCHES ... 68 PCT SINCE JAN 2008... 35.83 INCHES ... DEFICIT 13.65 INCHES ... 72 PCT SINCE JAN 2007... 64.48 INCHES ... DEFICIT 42.51 INCHES ... 60 PCT SINCE JAN 2006...107.07 INCHES ... DEFICIT 57.43 INCHES ... 65 PCT SINCE JAN 2005...147.22 INCHES ... DEFICIT 74.79 INCHES ... 66 PCT MUSCLE SHOALS...THROUGH NOVEMBER 17TH: MONTH-TO-DATE ... 1.94 INCHES ... DEFICIT 0.74 INCH ... 72 PCT LAST 30 DAYS ... 3.09 INCHES ... DEFICIT 1.00 INCH ... 76 PCT LAST 90 DAYS ... 8.58 INCHES ... DEFICIT 2.83 INCHES ... 75 PCT LAST 180 DAYS ... 17.43 INCHES ... DEFICIT 6.92 INCHES ... 72 PCT LAST 365 DAYS ... 38.64 INCHES ... DEFICIT 16.98 INCHES ... 70 PCT SINCE JAN 2008... 33.44 INCHES ... DEFICIT 14.51 INCHES ... 70 PCT SINCE JAN 2007... 71.69 INCHES ... DEFICIT 32.06 INCHES ... 69 PCT SINCE JAN 2006...121.52 INCHES ... DEFICIT 38.03 INCHES ... 76 PCT SINCE JAN 2005...162.63 INCHES ... DEFICIT 52.72 INCHES ... 76 PCT SCOTTSBORO...THROUGH NOVEMBER 17TH: MONTH-TO-DATE ... 2.43 INCHES ... DEFICIT 0.22 INCH ... 92 PCT LAST 30 DAYS ... 3.14 INCHES ... DEFICIT 1.01 INCH ... 76 PCT LAST 90 DAYS ... 12.97 INCHES ...*SURPLUS* 0.46 INCH ...104 PCT LAST 180 DAYS ... 18.65 INCHES ... DEFICIT 6.37 INCHES ... 75 PCT LAST 365 DAYS ... 46.98 INCHES ... DEFICIT 11.54 INCHES ... 80 PCT SINCE JAN 2008... 41.15 INCHES ... DEFICIT 9.56 INCHES ... 81 PCT SINCE JAN 2007... 75.56 INCHES ... DEFICIT 33.84 INCHES ... 69 PCT SINCE JAN 2006...127.07 INCHES ... DEFICIT 41.02 INCHES ... 76 PCT SINCE JAN 2005...173.77 INCHES ... DEFICIT 53.01 INCHES ... 77 PCT WINCHESTER...THROUGH NOVEMBER 17TH: MONTH-TO-DATE ... 2.37 INCHES ...*SURPLUS* 0.03 INCH ...101 PCT LAST 30 DAYS ... 3.33 INCHES ... DEFICIT 0.22 INCH ... 94 PCT LAST 90 DAYS ... 9.56 INCHES ... DEFICIT 1.37 INCHES ... 88 PCT LAST 180 DAYS ... 17.60 INCHES ... DEFICIT 5.07 INCHES ... 78 PCT LAST 365 DAYS ... 39.17 INCHES ... DEFICIT 14.93 INCHES ... 72 PCT SINCE JAN 2008... 35.85 INCHES ... DEFICIT 10.37 INCHES ... 78 PCT SINCE JAN 2007... 65.17 INCHES ... DEFICIT 35.31 INCHES ... 65 PCT SINCE JAN 2006...107.62 INCHES ... DEFICIT 47.12 INCHES ... 70 PCT SINCE JAN 2005...151.31 INCHES ... DEFICIT 57.69 INCHES ... 72 PCT CULLMAN...THROUGH NOVEMBER 17TH: MONTH-TO-DATE ... 2.99 INCHES ...*SURPLUS* 0.37 INCH ...114 PCT LAST 30 DAYS ... 3.28 INCHES ... DEFICIT 0.84 INCH ... 80 PCT LAST 90 DAYS ... 10.90 INCHES ... DEFICIT 1.69 INCHES ... 87 PCT LAST 180 DAYS ... 22.41 INCHES ... DEFICIT 3.00 INCHES ... 88 PCT LAST 365 DAYS ... 50.94 INCHES ... DEFICIT 8.85 INCHES ... 85 PCT SINCE JAN 2008... 47.72 INCHES ... DEFICIT 4.24 INCHES ... 92 PCT SINCE JAN 2007... 77.69 INCHES ... DEFICIT 34.23 INCHES ... 69 PCT SINCE JAN 2006...133.62 INCHES ... DEFICIT 38.26 INCHES ... 78 PCT SINCE JAN 2005...186.22 INCHES ... DEFICIT 45.62 INCHES ... 80 PCT PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NOVEMBER 23RD. ABOUT A HALF INCH OF RAIN LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY NOVEMBER 24TH. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. THE OUTLOOK FROM DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE OUTLOOK SHOWS EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...AND SLIGHTLY FAVORS BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ELSEWHERE. THE LATEST SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK...VALID THROUGH FEBRUARY 2009... INDICATES THAT THE DROUGHT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND IMPROVE SLIGHTLY OVER TENNESSEE. HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK... STREAMFLOW...SOIL MOISTURE...AND GROUNDWATER...ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LAKE LEVELS ARE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BEAR CREEK LAKE...WHICH IS BEING HELD BELOW NORMAL DUE TO CONSTRUCTION...AND TIMS FORD LAKE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE OUTLOOK FOR RIVER AND LAKE LEVELS IS GENERALLY FOR A SLOW FALL. THIS IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...ESPECIALLY ON THE LAKES. THE OUTLOOK FOR SOIL MOISTURE AND GROUNDWATER IS FOR SLOW DRYING. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THIS WILL BE THE LAST SCHEDULED DROUGHT STATEMENT FOR MADISON COUNTY AS CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO D0 FOR MOST OF THE COUNTY. THE NEXT SCHEDULED DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR JACKSON... MARSHALL...AND DE KALB COUNTIES IN ALABAMA...AND FRANKLIN COUNTY TENNESSEEE...WILL BE ISSUED NO LATER THAN SUNDAY NOVEMBER 30TH. UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED SOONER...USUALLY ON A THURSDAY...IF THE DROUGHT MONITOR CHANGES IN ANY GIVEN WEEK...OR IF IMPACTS WORSEN. && RELATED WEB SITES... /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR MUCH MORE DROUGHT INFORMATION...INCLUDING LINKS TO MANY DROUGHT INDICATORS...VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS... SOME DATA USED IN THIS STATEMENT WERE PROVIDED BY THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE...COUNTY EXTENSION AGENTS...THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY...AND THE STATES OF ALABAMA AND TENNESSEE. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS... FOR QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ON THE DROUGHT...CONTACT: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 320A SPARKMAN DRIVE HUNTSVILLE AL 35805 PHONE: 256-890-8503 SR-HUN.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV $$ ELLIOTT