070 
FXUS61 KGYX 230823
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
323 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SOUTH OF
THE AREA TONIGHT NIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG SLOW MOVING LOW...WHICH
WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER NEW YORK STATE AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.
ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE CLOSED SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD TODAY AND GRADUALLY ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ARE GRADUALLY RUNNING OUT OF A
MOISTURE SUPPLY AND ARE EXPECTED TO DRY UP THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAKE IT A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. NOT MUCH
DIFFERENCE AMONG THE MODELS ON TEMPERATURES...SO WENT WITH A BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND SET UP A
SOUTHERLY FLOW. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS IN OVERNIGHT AS
THAT SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS SCOURING OUT THE COLD AIR MASS. MINIMAL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION. ONE MORE COLD NIGHT
WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK TO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM FRONT PUSHES BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. LOOKING FOR VARIABLE CLOUDS
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS APPROACHING NORMAL FOR A
CHANGE.

CLOSED UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PUSHES INTO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT. BROAD AREA OF
OVER-RUNNING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THICKNESSES
SUGGESTING A QUICK CHANGE OVER FROM WET SNOW TO RAIN IN COASTAL
LOCATIONS AS SOUTHEAST GRADIENT QUICKLY TIGHTENS AND WARMER AIR
STREAMS INTO THE AREA OFF THE ATLANTIC.

HARD TO SAY HOW QUICKLY ENTRENCHED COLDER AIR HANGS ON IN NORTHERN
ZONES BUT EXPECT A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ONLY AREA IN QUESTION WILL BE THE
MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MAINE WHERE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW
MAY LAST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

CLOSED UPPER LOW STILL FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE REGION BY LATE
IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH SURFACE LOW LEFT MEANDERING AROUND NEW
YORK STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. OCCLUDED FRONT GRADUALLY
PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT MAKING THE
FORECAST OF PRECIPITATION TYPE ESPECIALLY DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT
IN TIME. GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR RAIN GRADUALLY MIXING WITH
SNOW....GOING OVER TO ALL SNOW ON WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES
BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE OCCLUSION. AT THE SAME TIME BEST
LIFT SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE SO LOOKING FOR
PRECIPITATION TO BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE DURING THE DAY ON 
WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WITH SURFACE LOW GRADUALLY WEAKENING. LOOKING FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT
OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

RELIEF FOR THE NORTHEAST APPEARS RATHER SHORT LIVED AS NEXT
SHORTWAVE DUMBBELLS AROUND BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
SENDS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TOWARD THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS IN THE
MORNING WILL DROP OFF THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...VFR MONDAY. CEILINGS AND VSBY DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR
MONDAY NIGHT...PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THURSDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WILL REPLACE GALE WARNING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
AS GUSTS CONTINUE TO DROP BELOW 35 KTS. WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SHORTLY AFTER DARK.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY....DIMINISHING
BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR 
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$