699 AXUS74 KARX 210900 DGTARX DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 300 AM CDT FRI NOV 21 2008 ...LONG TERM DRYNESS REMAINS... .SUMMARY... FROM 7 AM ON NOVEMBER 11TH THROUGH 7 AM ON NOVEMBER 18TH...BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1.15 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FELL ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN. THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WERE REPORTED IN GAYS MILLS WI /1.15 INCHES/...WAUKON IA /1.15 INCHES/...BLACK RIVER FALLS WI /1.00 INCH/...AND GENOA DAM 8 WI /0.97 INCHES/. MEANWHILE THE NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN RECEIVED ANYWHERE FROM A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH. TYPICALLY...AROUND A HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION FALLS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...SO THERE SOME MORE REDUCTION IN THE PRECIPITATION DEFICITS WHICH HAVE BEEN BUILDING SINCE SUMMER. HOWEVER IT WAS NOT ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE DROUGHT SITUATION ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. PRECIPITATION IS VERY IMPORTANT AT THIS TIME OF YEAR...BECAUSE THERE IS VERY LIMITED USE BY PLANTS. THUS IT ALLOWS THE SOILS TO RECHARGE QUICKER THAN THEY WOULD IN THE MIDST OF THE GROWING SEASON. IN CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND PARTS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN JACKSON COUNTY...THE PRECIPITATION DEFICITS SINCE MID APRIL 2008 ARE RANGING FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A SEVERE /D2/ DROUGHT IN THESE COUNTIES. IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...PRECIPITATION DEFICITS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 5 AND 9 INCHES SINCE MID JUNE 2008. THESE PRECIPITATION DEFICITS HAVE RESULTED IN A MODERATE DROUGHT /D1/ ACROSS THIS AREA. IN NORTHEAST IOWA...PRECIPITATION DEFICITS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 2.00 INCHES AND 6.50 INCHES BELOW NORMAL SINCE MID JULY. THESE PRECIPITATION DEFICITS HAVE RESULTED IN AN ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ AND MODERATE DROUGHT /D1/ CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS AREA. FINALLY...IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...PRECIPITATION DEFICITS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 3 AND 8 INCHES SINCE MID JULY. THIS HAS RESULTED IN ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ TO MODERATE DROUGHT /D1/ CONDITIONS ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE MODERATE /D1/ TO SEVERE /D2/ DROUGHT CAUSED SOME REDUCTION IN CORN AND SOY BEAN YIELDS. SOY BEANS HAVE BEEN AVERAGING 15 TO 30 BUSHELS PER ACRE. NORMALLY...THESE YIELDS SHOULD RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 BUSHELS PER ACRE. IN ADDITION...THERE WERE SOME REPORTS OF APPLES AND RASPBERRIES BEING SMALLER THAN NORMAL. THE DROUGHT IS ALSO AFFECTING HYDROLOGY. THE DEPTH OF THE GROUND WATER HAS DECLINED JUST 3.07 FEET SINCE MID JULY IN MONROE COUNTY /TOMAH WI/...AND THE RIVER FLOWS ARE LOWER THAN NORMAL ALONG THE BLACK AND WISCONSIN RIVERS IN WESTERN WISCONSIN AND CEDAR RIVER IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. IN THE NOVEMBER 18TH RELEASE OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...SEVERE /D2/ DROUGHT WAS FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...AND SOUTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. MODERATE DROUGHT /D1/ EXISTED ACROSS ALL OR PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...WESTERN WISCONSIN...AND THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF UPPER MICHIGAN. ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ CONDITIONS SURROUND THE MODERATE DROUGHT /D1/ AREAS IN MINNESOTA...WISCONSIN...NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. .LOCAL AREA AFFECTED... SEVERE DROUGHT /D2/ CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MODERATE /D1/ TO SEVERE DROUGHT /D2/ EXIST ACROSS JACKSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MODERATE DROUGHT /D1/ CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS DODGE...FILLMORE... HOUSTON...OLMSTED...WINONA...AND WABASHA COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND IN ADAMS...BUFFALO...JUNEAU...LA CROSSE...MONROE... AND TREMPEALEAU COUNTIES IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ TO MODERATE DROUGHT /D1/ CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS ALLAMAKEE...HOWARD...MITCHELL...AND WINNESHIEK COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST IOWA...MOWER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND CRAWFORD...RICHLAND AND VERNON COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS ALL OR PARTS OF CHICKASAW...CLAYTON...FAYETTE...AND FLOYD COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST IOWA...AND GRANT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. .STATE AND LOCAL ACTIONS... NO KNOWN ACTIONS ARE CURRENTLY TAKING PLACE. .CLIMATOLOGICAL SUMMARY... NORTHEAST IOWA... SINCE MID JULY 2008...MOST LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST IOWA HAVE RECEIVED BETWEEN 7 AND 11 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION. THESE TOTALS ARE 2.00 TO 6.50 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. NORMALLY THESE AREAS RECEIVE BETWEEN 13.00 AND 13.50 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FROM MID JULY THROUGH MID NOVEMBER. DUE TO THESE PRECIPITATION DEFICITS...ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ TO MODERATE DROUGHT /D1/ CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA... SINCE MID JUNE 2008...MOST LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA HAVE RECEIVED BETWEEN 9.50 AND 13.00 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION. THESE TOTALS ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 9 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. NORMALLY THIS AREA RECEIVES AROUND 17.50 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FROM MID JUNE THROUGH MID NOVEMBER. DUE TO THESE PRECIPITATION DEFICITS...MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS /D1/ CONTINUE TO BE FOUND ACROSS ALL OF THIS AREA. WESTERN WISCONSIN... SINCE MID JULY 2008...MOST LOCATIONS IN WESTERN WISCONSIN HAVE RECEIVED BETWEEN 5 AND 10 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION. THESE TOTALS ARE 3 TO 8 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. NORMALLY THESE AREAS RECEIVE BETWEEN 12.50 AND 13.00 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FROM MID JULY THROUGH MID NOVEMBER. DUE TO THESE PRECIPITATION DEFICITS...ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ TO SEVERE DROUGHT /D2/ CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN. .SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS... AS OF NOVEMBER 18TH...THE MIDWESTERN REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER /MRCC/ INDICATED THAT THE SOIL MOISTURE IN THE TOP FIVE FEET RANGED FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES BELOW NORMAL FROM NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IOWA NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE SOILS WERE THE DRIEST /IN THE EXCESS OF 3.50 INCHES BELOW NORMAL/ ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. .GROUND WATER IMPACTS... ON NOVEMBER 18TH...THE WELL WATER LEVEL JUST WEST OF TOMAH WISCONSIN /MONROE COUNTY/ WAS 7.08 FEET BELOW GROUND LEVEL. THIS WAS NEARLY A TENTH OF A FOOT LOWER THAN NOVEMBER 11TH...AND 2.24 FEET LOWER THAN IT WAS ON AUGUST 1 2008. NORMALLY THE WATER LEVEL SHOULD BE 5.11 FEET BELOW GROUND LEVEL. THE LOWEST WATER LEVEL ON RECORD WAS 8.62 FEET BELOW THE GROUND LEVEL ON OCTOBER 7 1987. THE HIGHEST WATER LEVEL ON RECORD WAS 0.48 FEET BELOW GROUND LEVEL ON SEPTEMBER 29 1965. THE PERIOD OF RECORD EXTENDS FROM OCTOBER 1949 THROUGH THE PRESENT. .RIVER AND STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS... RECENT RAINS HAVE HELPED TO INCREASE THE RIVER FLOWS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND NORTHEAST IOWA. AS OF THE MORNING OF NOVEMBER 18TH...THE LOWEST FLOWS WERE REPORTED ALONG THE BLACK AND WISCONSIN RIVERS IN WESTERN WISCONSIN...AND CEDAR RIVER IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. .AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... IOWA... ON NOVEMBER 17TH...THE IOWA FIELD OFFICE OF USDA/S NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS SERVICE /NASS/ REPORTED THAT ANOTHER WEEK OF WIDESPREAD RAIN PUSHED CORN HARVEST FURTHER BEHIND NORMAL. SOME PRODUCERS HARVESTED CORN IN WET FIELD CONDITIONS. SOYBEAN HARVEST WAS ALSO DELAYED BY MUDDY FIELDS. FALL FERTILIZER APPLICATIONS ARE ESTIMATED AT 21 PERCENT COMPLETE...FAR BEHIND THE 46 PERCENT AVERAGE FOR THIS DATE. THERE WERE 2.1 DAYS SUITABLE FOR FIELDWORK...COMPARED WITH 6.8 DAYS LAST YEAR AT THIS TIME. TOPSOIL MOISTURE IS RATED 3 PERCENT SHORT...64 PERCENT ADEQUATE...AND 33 PERCENT SURPLUS ACROSS THE STATE. SUBSOIL MOISTURE IS RATED 1 PERCENT VERY SHORT...6 PERCENT SHORT...73 PERCENT ADEQUATE...AND 20 PERCENT SURPLUS. GRAIN MOVEMENT FROM FARM TO ELEVATOR WAS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS WEEK WITH 27 PERCENT NO MOVEMENT...33 PERCENT RATED LIGHT...31 PERCENT RATED MODERATE...AND 9 PERCENT RATED HEAVY. OFF-FARM GRAIN STORAGE AVAILABILITY RATED 11 PERCENT SHORT... 82 PERCENT ADEQUATE...AND 7 PERCENT SURPLUS. ON-FARM STORAGE AVAILABILITY RATED 20 PERCENT SHORT...75 PERCENT ADEQUATE...AND 5 PERCENT SURPLUS. FIELD CROPS REPORT THE CORN HARVEST ADVANCED TO 70 PERCENT COMPLETE...MORE THAN 2 WEEKS BEHIND LAST YEAR/S 96 PERCENT PACE AND THE FIVE-YEAR AVERAGE OF 95 PERCENT. HARVESTED CORN AVERAGED 19 PERCENT MOISTURE...COMPARED WITH 18 PERCENT ONE WEEK AGO. SOYBEAN HARVEST...AT 98 PERCENT COMPLETE...TRAILS LAST YEAR/S 99 PERCENT. NORMALLY...SOYBEAN HARVEST IS COMPLETE BY THIS DATE. LIVESTOCK...PASTURE AND RANGE REPORT AVAILABILITY OF HAY AND ROUGHAGE FOR LIVESTOCK FEED RATED 10 PERCENT SHORT...83 PERCENT ADEQUATE...AND 7 PERCENT SURPLUS WITH A RATED QUALITY OF 8 PERCENT POOR...47 PERCENT FAIR...AND 45 PERCENT GOOD. BALING OF CORN STALKS WAS HAMPERED BY POOR FIELD CONDITIONS. MINNESOTA... MINNESOTA FIELD OFFICE OF USDA/S NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS SERVICE /NASS/ REPORTS THAT PRODUCERS HARVESTED ONLY FIVE PERCENT OF MINNESOTA/S CORN AND TEN PERCENT OF THE SUNFLOWERS DURING THIS PAST WEEK. RAIN DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS HAS LEFT WATER STANDING IN THE FIELDS AND HINDERED FARMERS/ ABILITY TO HARVEST STANDING CROPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE STATE. AS OF FRIDAY...NOVEMBER 14...NEARLY THE ENTIRE STATE HAD ADEQUATE OR SURPLUS TOP SOIL MOISTURE. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE WEEK WAS 29.8 DEGREES...1.0 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. STATEWIDE TOPSOIL MOISTURE SUPPLIES AS OF FRIDAY...NOVEMBER 14TH...WERE 0 PERCENT VERY SHORT...4 SHORT... 70 ADEQUATE...AND 26 SURPLUS. STATEWIDE...ON AVERAGE...THERE WERE 2.3 DAYS SUITABLE FOR FIELDWORK DURING THE WEEK. FIELD CROPS SUMMARY AS OF SUNDAY...NOVEMBER 16TH...80 PERCENT OF THE CORN CROP WAS HARVESTED...COMPARED TO 98 PERCENT LAST YEAR AND 96 PERCENT AVERAGE. SUNFLOWER HARVEST REACHED 80 PERCENT COMPLETE...COMPARED TO 99 PERCENT LAST YEAR AND 93 PERCENT AVERAGE. AS OF FRIDAY...NOVEMBER 14TH...35 PERCENT OF PASTURE WAS RATED IN GOOD OR EXCELLENT CONDITION. WISCONSIN... ON NOVEMBER 18TH...THE WISCONSIN FIELD OFFICE OF USDA/S NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS SERVICE /NASS/ REPORTED THAT THE CORN HARVEST WAS SLOWLY PROGRESSING WITH REPORTS OF GRAIN HARVEST AT 69 PERCENT COMPLETE. THIS IS BEHIND BOTH LAST YEAR/S 89 PERCENT AND THE 5-YEAR AVERAGE OF 83 PERCENT COMPLETE. WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENTS AND HIGH COST OF DRYING...SOME WISCONSIN CORN PRODUCERS WERE LETTING THEIR REMAINING CROP STAND FOR NOW. OTHERS WERE TAKING IT OFF THE FIELD REGARDLESS OF MOISTURE CONTENT. MANY FARMERS ARE STALK CHOPPING AND BALING. PRECIPITATION TOTALS LAST WEEK RANGED FROM 0.40 INCHES IN EAU CLAIRE TO 0.78 INCHES IN LA CROSSE. SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS WERE REPORTED AT 2 PERCENT VERY SHORT...11 PERCENT SHORT...70 PERCENT ADEQUATE AND 17 PERCENT SURPLUS. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 37 TO 45 DEGREES...WITH AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 27 TO 34 DEGREES. THERE WAS AN AVERAGE OF 3.1 DAYS SUITABLE FOR FIELDWORK LAST WEEK. SOYBEAN HARVEST IS COMPLETE WITH VARIABLE YIELDS THROUGHOUT THE STATE. WINTER WHEAT APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD START GOING INTO DORMANCY FOR THE WINTER. SOME AREAS REPORTED THAT IT COULD USE A FEW MORE GROWING DAYS. FALL TILLAGE WAS GOING STRONG WITH 52 PERCENT COMPLETE...BEHIND LAST YEAR AND THE 5-YEAR AVERAGE...OF 64 PERCENT AND 58 PERCENT COMPLETE...RESPECTIVELY. PASTURE CONDITIONS WERE REPORTED AT 8 PERCENT VERY POOR...21 PERCENT POOR...48 PERCENT FAIR...22 PERCENT GOOD...AND 1 PERCENT EXCELLENT. THE FOLLOWING WERE QUOTES FROM FARM REPORTERS AND COUNTY AGRICULTURE AGENTS: CLARK COUNTY - THERE ARE MANY COMMENTS THAT CORN MOISTURES ARE NOT DROPPING. MANY PRODUCERS ARE LEAVING CORN STAND TO DRY VERSUS PAYING DRYING COST. SOME COMMENTS WERE THAT CORN YIELDS WERE AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE. MOST WINTER WHEAT SHOULD BE GOOD GOING INTO WINTER. TREMPEALEAU COUNTY - CORN HARVEST HAS ALL BUT STOPPED DUE TO THE RECENT RAIN. THERE WERE REPORTS OF VERY GOOD CORN YIELDS .FIRE DANGER HAZARDS... AS OF THE MORNING OF NOVEMBER 18TH...LOW FIRE DANGER WAS REPORTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX /KBDI/ REMAINED MODERATE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE 100-HOUR DEAD FUEL MOISTURE REMAINED INTO THE 16 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE AND THE 1000-HOUR DEAD FUEL MOISTURE REMAINED GREATER THAN 20 PERCENT. THE 100-HOUR DEAD FUEL MOISTURES ARE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO SHORT TERM DRYNESS THAN THE 1000-HOUR DEAD FUEL MOISTURES AS A RESULT THERE IS MORE DAY-TO-DAY VARIABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. AS A REMINDER...CITIZENS SHOULD ALWAYS CHECK WITH LOCAL OFFICIALS IN THEIR AREA BEFORE UNDERTAKING ANY OUTSIDE BURNING. CITIZENS ARE LIABLE FOR DAMAGES AND SUPPRESSION COSTS OF ANY WILDFIRE THEY MAY START. .PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS... FROM NOVEMBER 21ST THROUGH NOVEMBER 25TH...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL...AND PRECIPITATION WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THE DAILY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 27 TO 32 DEGREES AND THE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS AROUND FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH. BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME THE 8 TO 14 DAY FORECAST FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/ FOR THE PERIOD NOVEMBER 26TH THROUGH DECEMBER 2ND CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THE DAILY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 22 TO 29 DEGREES AND THE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS AROUND FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER 2008 THROUGH FEBRUARY 2009 CALLS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE...BELOW...AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. .QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS... IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT... JEFFREY BOYNE CLIMATE SERVICES FOCAL POINT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 54601-3038 TELEPHONE 608-784-8275 E-MAIL JEFF.BOYNE@NOAA.GOV .RELATED WEB SITES... LOCAL DROUGHT SITE... HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ARX/?N=DROUGHT LOCAL DROUGHT MONITORING SITE... HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ARX/?N=DROUGHTMONITORING U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR... HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML NOAA DROUGHT PAGE... HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV/ MIDWESTERN REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER /MRCC/... HTTP://MCC.SWS.UIUC.EDU/INDEX.JSP ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION... NWS - HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/ USGS - HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/ COE - HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL/ CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/... HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/ .ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS... THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...USDA...COE AND USGS. .NEXT ISSUANCE... THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON THURSDAY NOVEMBER 27TH. $$ BOYNE