153 FXUS65 KABQ 231012 AFDABQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 312 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2008 .DISCUSSION... STILL A QUIET PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH MON NIGHT OR TUE...THOUGH THERE IS THE MORE OR LESS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MARCHING NE TO SW ACROSS THE STATE STARTING LATE THIS AFTN OR EARLY EVE...WHICH SHOULD HAVE JUST ENOUGH EASTERLY NR SFC WIND COMPONENT COMING WESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WIND BELOW CANYONS AND LOWER PASSES OF SAID CHAIN INTO RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY TO MID AM HOURS OF MON. NOT AS MOIST OR COOL BEHIND THIS FRONT COMPARED TO STRONGER FRONT OF SEVERAL DAYS BACK. THEREAFTER THE PATTERN CHANGE BEING TALKED ABOUT RECENTLY STILL LOOKS TO HAPPEN STARTING LATE TUE OR EARLY WED...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE OR TWO MAY WEAKEN AND SHOW A DECREASE IN PCPN AS IT CROSSES THE STATE. THE MORE ROBUST PORTION OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH LOOKS TO CROSS THE STATE THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT...MAY WELL BE COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW AS LOW AS THE 6500 TO 7500 FOOT LEVEL. BUT AS THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT THESE SNOW LEVELS ARE STILL VERY APPROXIMATE AND EXACT TIMING STILL A LITTLE UNCLEAR SO STAY TUNED. COULD COMPLICATE TRAVEL THOUGH FOR A PORTION OF THE HOLIDAY PERIOD. 43 && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INCLUDING ALL TAF SITES. NO AVIATION WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z. 05 && .FIRE WEATHER... HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE A MAJOR CHANGE IN WEATHER REGIME SETS IN. THIS AFTERNOON... WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TO THE NORTH. AN HOUR OR TWO OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE... MOSTLY ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF INTERSTATE 40 NEAR THE BORDER OF FIRE ZONES 107 AND 108. A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TODAY AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. MODERATE CANYON WINDS WILL RESULT OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE MONDAY. LIGHTER WINDS AND SOMEWHAT LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS COMBINE FOR MOSTLY POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION. THE UPPER HIGH BREAKS DOWN A BIT ON TUESDAY AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXTENDED MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT AT THIS TIME RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE LATE TUESDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. EXTENDED MODELS INDICATE THAT A SECOND SYSTEM MAY FOLLOW RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. 05 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 57 25 56 27 / 0 0 0 0 GALLUP.......................... 60 16 58 19 / 0 0 0 0 GRANTS.......................... 60 19 57 20 / 0 0 0 0 GLENWOOD........................ 69 26 68 28 / 0 0 0 0 CHAMA........................... 55 14 52 14 / 0 0 0 0 LOS ALAMOS...................... 58 22 53 19 / 0 0 0 0 RED RIVER....................... 51 13 48 13 / 0 0 0 0 TAOS............................ 57 16 54 14 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA FE........................ 59 25 53 26 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 59 26 54 25 / 0 0 0 0 ESPANOLA........................ 62 24 57 20 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 61 34 57 32 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 63 30 60 26 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 61 32 57 28 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 64 32 61 29 / 0 0 0 0 SOCORRO......................... 67 27 63 24 / 0 0 0 0 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 57 27 52 24 / 0 0 0 0 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 62 25 56 22 / 0 0 0 0 CARRIZOZO....................... 66 30 60 26 / 0 0 0 0 RUIDOSO......................... 62 29 56 25 / 0 0 0 0 RATON........................... 61 19 56 18 / 0 0 0 0 LAS VEGAS....................... 63 23 54 23 / 0 0 0 0 ROY............................. 62 28 56 28 / 0 0 0 0 CLAYTON......................... 63 26 58 30 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA ROSA...................... 71 29 62 26 / 0 0 0 0 TUCUMCARI....................... 69 29 61 29 / 0 0 0 0 FORT SUMNER..................... 71 30 61 27 / 0 0 0 0 CLOVIS.......................... 69 31 59 30 / 0 0 0 0 PORTALES........................ 70 29 62 29 / 0 0 0 0 ROSWELL......................... 73 35 62 31 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 43/05