ACUS02 KWNS 240527
SPC AC 240526
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
Scattered showers and storms are expected in portions of the
southern Great Plains. The severe risk with this activity is
expected to be minimal.
A persistent longwave trough will remain across the West while
making slow eastward progress into the Dakotas. Downstream,
meridionally oriented mid-level flow will remain in place from the
southern High Plains northward to Minnesota and vicinity - although
this flow should be weaker relative to past days. Ridging will also
remain located across the Northeast.
At the surface, a slow-moving cold front will advance southward
across the Plains and extend from northeastern New Mexico
northeastward to western Wisconsin by early evening. Southerly flow
ahead of this front will maintain 60s F dewpoints, while convergence
fosters an arc of convection from the Big Bend areas of Texas
northward into western Oklahoma and into Iowa.
Although surface heating ahead/away from ongoing convection may
foster weak destabilization during peak heating hours, weak
mid-level lapse rates and modest vertical shear should result in any
damaging wind threat being too sparse to merit severe probabilities
at this time.