Severe Weather Outlook, Day 1

958 
ACUS01 KWNS 230052
SWODY1
SPC AC 230051
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017
Valid 230100Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF THE
SLIGHT RISK ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...GEORGIA
AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will persist across parts of the central Gulf States
and Tennessee Valley this evening. A few will be capable of
producing localized damaging wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes.
Other strong to severe storm with potential for large hail and wind
damage will be possible from western Kansas southward into the
northern Texas Panhandle this evening. A marginal severe threat will
be possible this evening into the overnight period from the central
Plains east-northeastward into the southern Great Lakes.
...Central Gulf Coast States/Tennessee Valley...
The National Hurricane Center has Tropical Depression Cindy in far
northwest Louisiana at the present time. Several south-to-north
oriented rainbands are located to the north of the center in eastern
Arkansas and to the east of the center across the Gulf Coast States
into Georgia. Regional WSR-88D VWPs from Memphis, TN to Birmingham,
AL show strong low-level shear profiles with 0-1 km shear generally
in the 25 to 35 kt range with veering winds with height in the
lowest 2 km AGL. This will be favorable for storm rotation and
possibly a tornado or two associated with the stronger cells
embedded in these line segments.
...Southern and Central Plains...
Water vapor imagery shows cyclonic west-northwesterly flow with a
subtle shortwave trough located in the central High Plains.
Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing in the vicinity of a cold front
just ahead of the shortwave trough in southwestern Kansas. The RAP
is analyzing moderate instability in western Kansas where MLCAPE is
estimated in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. The WSR-88D VWP at Dodge
City shows veering winds with height with 30 to 40 kt of westerly
flow in the mid to upper-levels. This along with the moderate
instability should be enough to continue a severe threat for a few
more hours. Isolated large hail and wind damage will be primary
threats.
...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Southern Great Lakes...
Water vapor imagery shows westerly mid-level flow is in place from
the north-central states eastward into the Great Lakes. At the
surface, a cold front will advance southward across the mid to upper
Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region. Scattered thunderstorms
are already ongoing in northern Iowa, southern Wisconsin into lower
Michigan from near the front southward. The airmass along this
corridor is moderately unstable according to the RAP with MLCAPE in
the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. In addition, regional WSR-88D VWP shows
0-6 km shear in the 25 to 35 kt range suggesting the environment
will be capable of producing marginal severe storms with hail and
strong wind gusts possible. Storm coverage should gradually increase
this evening into the overnight period as the front moves southward
across the region with the marginal severe threat continuing through
late in the period.
..Broyles.. 06/23/2017
$$