Mesoscale Discussion

917 
ACUS11 KWNS 230000
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222359 
MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-230100-
Mesoscale Discussion 1127
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017
Areas affected...parts of eastern Arkansas...western Tennessee...and
northern Mississippi
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 
Valid 222359Z - 230100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Risk for isolated/brief tornadoes is evident in the
northeast quadrant of the circulation surrounding T.D. Cindy. 
Isolated nature of the risk thus far does not seem to warrant WW
issuance.  We will continue to monitor environmental and convective
trends across the area.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows convection -- including an
arcing band of storms from central Arkansas into southwest Tennessee
and northern Mississippi -- ongoing in the northeast quadrant of
T.D. Cindy and shifting northward with time in conjunction with
Cindy's advance.  
Latest surface analysis and WSR-88D VWP data reveals rather
pronounced backing in the low-level flow field within this area,
with resulting 0-1 km shear supporting low-level rotation with a few
convective cells.  
With low-level flow surrounding Cindy progged to remain relatively
strong, expect limited tornado risk to persist into the overnight
hours.  However, areal coverage of the risk remains sufficiently
limited such that the need for a new tornado watch north of WW 364
remains questionable at this point, and may ultimately not be
required.  However, any increase in coverage and/or intensity of
convection northeast of the center of circulation would require more
serious consideration for WW issuance.
..Goss/Hart.. 06/22/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...
LAT...LON   35868935 34868887 33878900 33719004 33769079 33339233
            34029267 35189220 35889117 35868935