191
ACUS11 KWNS 152038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152038
TXZ000-152245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1972
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 PM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 152038Z - 152245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY CROSS THE RIO GRANDE
WITH A THREAT OF MARGINAL WIND AND HAIL.
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED CELLS HAVE FORMED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NRN MEXICO...AND ALSO WHERE THE WRN FRINGE OF A SWD MOVING COLD
FRONT EXISTS. HEATING CONTINUES S OF THE FRONT...BUT EVEN WITH LOWER
70S F DEWPOINTS THE CU FIELD AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS HAS A FLAT
APPEARANCE ON VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATING CAPPING.
WITH TIME...THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND
REDUCE CIN. CELLS MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE OFF THE TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE
RIVER WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AS HODOGRAPHS ARE LONG AND
SUPPORTIVE OF LONG LIVED CONVECTION. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS APPEAR
MOST PROBABLE...AND SMALL HAIL. WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING TO MOVE
SWD...ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN BRIEF WITH STORMS BECOMING
ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT.
..JEWELL/MEAD.. 10/15/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...
LAT...LON 29490156 30289887 30229839 29909814 29569807 29059844
28539972 28580061 28600137 28830177 29080183 29490156