036
FXCA62 TJSJ 130916 CCA
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
502 AM AST TUE AUG 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...TUTT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 60W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED
ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
WITH A FEW SPRINKLES OVER LAND AREAS. WINDS WERE MAINLY FROM THE
EAST AT 10 MPH OR LESS.
A TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH TRADE WIND
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO/USVI THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY SHALLOW CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...PASSING SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED
NEAR 60W MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...HOWEVER NO MAJOR IMPACTS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
A DRYING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT
SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT PREVAILS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH GFS AND WRF GUIDANCE SUGGESTED TPW VALUES DROPPING NEAR
1.5 INCHES BY THURSDAY...THERE IS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING TO INDUCE SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT
THIS TIME...THE DRIEST DAY OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE THURSDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED BEFORE 13/16Z ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS WITH ISOLD PASSING SHRA. AFTER 13/16Z...INCREASING LLVL
CLOUDS OVER PR MAY CAUSE MTN OBSCURATIONS...ALSO TSRA DEVELOPMENT
IS LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR...LIKELY
AFFECTING TJMZ AND POSSIBLY TJBQ SOMETIME BETWEEN 13/16Z AND
13/22Z...EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDS AT TJMZ AND POSSIBLY TJBQ. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSRA ELSEWHERE. EASTERLY WINDS WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS AT 10-15 KTS AND GUSTY AFTER 13/13Z.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET AND WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 90 81 / 30 20 20 20
STT 90 80 91 80 / 50 10 10 20
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
25/23