010
FXHW60 PHFO 130632
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST MON AUG 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP BREEZY TRADE WIND
WEATHER OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR BRIEF
SHOWERS TO BE FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...BUT OVERALL A
DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED. A SMALL INCREASE IN WINDWARD
SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS MOISTURE WITHIN THE
TRADE FLOW INCREASES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINANT OUR
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD...KEEPING TRADES BLOWING. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW FAR NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS...COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE ISLANDS IS HELPING TO BRING HIGH
CLOUDS TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT 2000 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT COULD BRIEFLY WEAKEN THE TRADE WIND FLOW TUESDAY.
TRADES...IF THEY WEAKEN...WILL BOUNCE BACK WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
MODELS...SOUNDING AND MIMIC DATA ALL SHOW DRIER AIR UPSTREAM OF THE
ISLANDS. SO ALTHOUGH TRADES WILL BE BLOWING...WE/RE LOOKING AT
LIGHTER THAN NORMAL RAINFALL VALUES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. HEADING
INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
HEADING TOWARDS THE BIG ISLAND. WILL BE CONTINUING TO MONITOR TO SEE
HOW MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WINDIER MARINE
ZONES AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI THROUGH TUESDAY. A BRIEF
LIGHTENING OF THE TRADES MAY ALLOW THE SCA TO BE BRIEFLY
DROPPED...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN SLIGHT WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BUT EXPECT
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS WITH THE LIGHT SHOWERS COMING IN WITH THE
TRADES...AND OVER LOCAL WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS OF ALL ISLANDS.
AIRMET TANGO FOR LOW LEVEL TURB TO THE S THROUGH W OF MOUNTAINS OF
ALL ISLANDS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE KBDI EXCEEDED 600 TODAY...AND WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN AT
HONOLULU AIRPORT MINIMAL...WE DO EXPECT THE KBDI TO INCREASE. THE
BREEZY TRADES...AND DRIER CONDITIONS THIS WEEK COULD PROMPT A RED
FLAG WARNING. WE WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING THE SITUATION AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO
CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...M BALLARD
AVIATION...LAU