470
FXPQ60 PGUM 160800
AFDPQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
600 PM CHST WED OCT 16 2013
.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W WAS LOCATED
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W WAS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF GUAM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREDICTED TRACK WILL TAKE IT SOUTHWEST
THAN WEST THAN NORTHWEST OF GUAM. THE QUESTION IS WHERE WILL
THE TURN BE MADE AND WILL THE SYSTEM STILL BE CLOSE TO THE
MARIANAS WHEN IT HAPPENS. IF IT REMAINS CLOSE WHILE INTENSIFYING...
EVEN THOUGH MOVING AWAY THE WIND FIELD WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS...SO TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN NOW AND SOMETIME ON FRIDAY. RAIN
IS SPARSE OVER THE MARIANAS NOW WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN SOUTH OF
GUAM. THE SYSTEM IS STILL DEVELOPING AND AREAS OF SHOWERS COULD BE
SEEN ON SATELLITE TO THE EAST OF THE MARIANAS. STILL FEEL THAT
SHOWERS WILL EXPEND OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY MIDNIGHT. AS WITH PASS
STORMS... SOMETIMES THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND HAPPENS OVER THE
ISLANDS IN SPIRAL BANDS THAT DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM.
THERE IS A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST SO AS WITH MANY
THINGS...THE THING TO DO IS EXPECT THE WORSE AND HOPE FOR THE
BEST. PEOPLE SHOULD AT LEAST MAKE MINIMAL PREPARATIONS NOW SO THAT
THEY DO NOT HAVE TO DEAL WITH POSSIBLE WORSENING CONDITIONS IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. EVEN WITH THE UNCERTAINTY FEEL THAT IT WILL
NOT BECOME A TYPHOON CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA...THIS WILL HAPPEN
FURTHER WEST OF THE MARIANAS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH SURF CONDITIONS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
RIDGING OVER THE REGION IS ALLOWING FOR FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS AND KOSRAE STATE. QUIET
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MAJURO THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS NORTHWEST OF THE MARSHALL
ISLANDS ON FRIDAY. DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NEAR POHNPEI. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW A
RAPID CLEARING TREND LATER TONIGHT OVER POHNPEI AS RIDGING BUILDS
IN FROM THE EAST. MODELS INDICATE MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FUTURE DISTURBANCE NORTHWEST OF THE MARSHALL
ISLANDS SHOULD LARGELY STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST ZONES DURING
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE MOVED TOT EH
NORTH OF CHUUK WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WITHIN THE
MARINE ZONE. SURFACE RIDGING WILL PUSH WESTWARD OVER CHUUK
ALLOWING FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND REDUCED CLOUD COVER TO
RESUME THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS DRY PATTERN IS PROGGED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOST OF THE WEATHER FEATURES STAY TO
THE NORTH OF CHUUK STATE. THE DRY CONDITIONS THAT YAP HAS
EXPERIENCED THE PAST FEW DAYS MAY BE COMING TO AN END WITH THE
ONGOING DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W. SHOWERS ARE
ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NEAR YAP WITH MORE SHOWER EXPECTED
TONIGHT. MONSOONAL FLOW WILL INCREASE AND A BAND OF CONVECTION
SOUTH OF 26W IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR YAP DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. HOWEVER...A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN SHOWER COVERAGE AS
MODELS SHOW MOST OF THE SHOWERS ENDING LATE FRIDAY AS 26W BEGINS
TO MOVE NORTHWARD. THE BAND OF SHOWERS IS PROGGED TO STAY NORTH
OF KOROR THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR YAP AND KOROR. LARGE NORTH-
NORTHWEST SWELL CONTINUES TO ARRIVE AT YAP AND KOROR PRODUCING
HAZARDOUS SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES. SURF IS EXPECTED TO
FALL BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS LATE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A LARGE
NORTHEAST SWELL GENERATED BY 26W SHOULD INCREASE AS THE WEEKEND
APPROACHES AT YAP AND KOROR THAT MAY PROLONG HAZARDOUS SURF.
&&
.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GUZ001>004.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST SATURDAY FOR GUZ001>004.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST SATURDAY FOR GUZ001-002.
MARIANAS WATERS...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PMZ151>154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST SATURDAY FOR PMZ151>154.
&&
$$
ZIOBRO/WILLIAMS