076
FXAK67 PAJK 122350
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
350 PM AKDT MON AUG 12 2013
.SHORT TERM...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE IS AN AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG HANGING AROUND DIXON ENTRANCE...FAR SOUTHERN
CLARENCE STRAIT AND ALONG THE EASTERN GULF GULF COAST. WINDS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ARE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH JUST SOME
THERMALLY INDUCED WINDS. THERE IS SOME SHOWERS WITH THUNDER
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF BC NEAR HYDER. WITH THE FLOW
FROM EAST TO WEST SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY MOVE OVER THE HYDER
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING BUT BESIDES THAT THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH TONIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW THE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO
SPREAD AGAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND OVER THE
EASTERN GULF. WILL BE ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVY FOR ZONES 27 AND
28 FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE
DENSE FOG WILL LIFT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA FROM
THE EAST AND ALSO BRING IN SOME PRECIP. THE PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY
NEAR HYDER AND ZONE 28. THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL SEE
JUST A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS. THE NORTHERN AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NEAR CROSS
SOUND. SOME OF THE CLOUDS FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUES WITH THE CENTRAL AREAS BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY.
WITH NOT MUCH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT THE WINDS OVER THE AREA
WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH.
THERE IS ABOUT AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD AND USED THE NAM/GFS.
.LONG TERM...PANHANDLE WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION INTO A WET
PATTERN BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD ON TUESDAY EVENING, DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL PREVAIL IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE. SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL BE CLOUDY,
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST MOUNTAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE COAST OF
SW BC WILL REORIENT ITSELF AND SEND SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL PANHANDLE
DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BY THURSDAY NIGHT,
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LIKELY POPS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
BY SATURDAY, AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS BY THIS
WEEKEND.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE
CONSENSUS THAT WET WEATHER WILL RETURN TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA BY
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. ECMWF AND GFS MAY HAVE SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT
IN THE EXACT TIMING AND POSITION OF DISTURBANCES THAT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE IN THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK.
DECIDE TO UTILIZE WPC GUIDANCE AS THE MODEL OF CHOICE.
.HYDRO...AS OF MONDAY AFTERNOON, SALMON RIVER NEAR HYDER CONTINUED
RISING DUE TO A GLACIAL DAM RELEASE FURTHER UPSTREAM IN BRITISH
COLUMBIA. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION REGARDING THIS EVENT, PLEASE
REFER TO THE HYDROLOGIC STATEMENT.
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THERE WILL BE INCREASED SNOWMELT AND GLACIAL
MELT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS. THIS WILL LEAD TO RISES IN
RIVER LEVELS. WATER LEVEL IN TAIYA RIVER IS EXPECTED TO HOVER JUST
BELOW ACTION STAGE OF 16 FEET FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM AKDT TUESDAY
FOR AKZ027-028.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
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ABJ/RCL