530
FXAK69 PAFG 161400
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
600 AM AKDT WED OCT 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER AIR...TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND BROAD RIDGE
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA NORTH ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL EXTEND NORTH OVER WESTERN CANADA TO NORTH OF BANKS
ISLAND. THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL HAVE A CLOSED LOW OVER SAINT
PAUL ISLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE...A 1004 MB LOW 370 MILES NORTHEAST OF PRUDHOE BAY WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST. A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH CHUKCHI
SEA WILL EXPAND NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST TO BARROW
ON WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL EXTEND EAST TO MACKENZIE BAY ON
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE OF 990 MB WILL FORM OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC
COAST THURSDAY EVENING AND DRIFT NORTH OF WAINWRIGHT EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN CONTINUE NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY.
A 993 MB LOW 200 MILES SOUTH OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL MOVE
NORTH TO 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND AS A 989 MB LOW THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL REMAIN STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE FRIDAY
MORNING. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BERING SEA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN TO
983 MB AS IT MOVES NORTH OVER THE SOUTHWEST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
NORTH SLOPE...TEMPERATURES ALOFT ON BARROWS SOUNDING THIS MORNING
WERE WELL BELOW FREEZING...BUT THIS WILL CHANGE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. THE WESTERN ARCTIC
COAST AND EAST TO PRUDHOE BAY WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BROOKS RANGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE FREEZING...EVEN OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN
PASSES THIS AFTERNOON. ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHEASTERN BROOKS
RANGE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN...THOUGH SOME LOW VALLEYS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BROOKS RANGE MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
WEST COAST...RAIN OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE WEST COAST WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF FRONTAL STRUCTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BERING SEA
LOW PRESSURE. THIS SECTOR WILL CONSIST OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR
NORTH TO SOUTH SLOPES OF THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE. RAINFALL MAY GO
ABOVE 1 INCH IN 24 HOURS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND EVEN UP TO 2
INCHES IN UP SLOPING AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
COULD REACH 3 INCHES IN UP SLOPING AREAS AND 2 INCHES IN OTHER
AREAS. ZONES 215...216...AND 217 WILL HAVE THE HEAVIEST RAINS...
WITH ZONE 217 HAVING THE HEAVIEST DUE TO UP SLOPING.
INTERIOR...THE EASTERN INTERIOR WILL RECEIVE MUCH LESS RAIN THAN
THE WESTERN INTERIOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ALASKA RANGE WILL
BLOCK MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE EASTERN INTERIOR. MAIN
DYNAMICS WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR WILL APPROACH RECORD HIGHS
TODAY. THE RECORD HIGH FOR THIS DATE AT THE FAIRBANKS AIRPORT IS
56 DEGREES. THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS A HIGH OF 53.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...STRONG LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE
OF SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR COASTAL AREAS OF THE WEST COAST FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. SINCE THE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OFFSHORE AND LESS
THAN 30 MPH...COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&
$$
DA OCT 13