129
FXZS60 NSTU 160152
AFDPPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
252 PM SST TUE OCT 15 2013
.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE
OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER TUTUILA EASTWARD AND A BULK
OF CLOUDS OVER SWAINS ISLAND. THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS DRY
SUBSIDENCE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND EAST OF MANUA. HENCE...A
TRADE-WIND REGIME COMBINED WITH AN EXISTING SURFACE TROUGH AXIS
TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE TSTMS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS.
HAVE UPDATED THE PREVIOUS FCST TO INCREASE THE SHOWER COVERAGE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD ON AMERICAN SAMOA. THE GFS MODEL
RESOLUTION SUGGEST LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE FCST ZONES
TONIGHT...AND MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. EAST WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEAST STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...
.FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A NEARLY STATIONARY HIGH PRESSURE WELL
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL PROVIDE SCATTERED TRADE-WIND SHOWERS
AND FRESH TO BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND. A SURFACE
TROUGH FROM THE NORTH WILL DESCEND TOWARD THE SAMOAN ISLANDS DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IF MODELS ARE CORRECT...THE FCST AREA
WILL BECOME SATURATED DURING MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HAVE
UPDATED THE CLOUD AND SHOWER COVERAGE TO MIRROR THE LATEST
SITUATION EXCEPT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT MINIMAL SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...HAZARDOUS SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FEET WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST WAVE WATCH INDICATE LARGE TRADE-
WIND GENERATED SEAS AND SWELLS TO SUBSIDE TO NEAR 5 TO 7 FEET ON
THURSDAY. SEA HEIGHTS WILL CLIMB BACK TO NEAR 7 TO 9 FEET STARTING
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...ANTICIPATE LARGE SEAS AND SWELLS TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE SAMOAN WATERS AS FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PERSIST
BEYOND THE 40 NM OF THE SAMOAN ISLANDS.
&&
.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
&&
$$
BAQUI