938
FXUS65 KVEF 130310
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
810 PM PDT MON AUG 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK PUSH OF MONSOON MOISTURE MAY TRY TO MOVE BACK INTO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH WOULD RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL SHIFT TO AREAS NORTH OF LAS VEGAS
SATURDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...CONVECTION WAS NOT AS WELL-DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY AND THE LATEST RADAR RETURNS
FROM KESX INDICATE WHATEVER SHOWERS DEVELOPED HAVE DISSIPATED. TEMPS
CONTINUE TO STAY IN THE COMFY RANGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ESPECIALLY
WITH RESPECT TO LOWS AND LOOK TO STAY THAT WAY AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT POTENTIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE COMES BACK INTO
THE AREA. THE LATEST FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND I DO NOT SEE THE
NEED FOR ANY CHANGES THIS EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD STILL TREND IN THAT DIRECTION BY
LATER THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS TO ONCE AGAIN FAVOR A
SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AND THEN BECOME
EAST TO EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SPEEDS WILL
MAINLY BE 5-10 KTS UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS FAVORING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE AREA AT MAINLY 12 KTS OR LESS. A
FEW CLOUDS AOA 10K FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY AS WELL AS OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA BUT OTHERWISE A CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
221 PM PDT MON AUG 12 2013
.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A FEW VERY WEAK
SHOWERS FORMED ACROSS NORTHEAST MOHAVE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NOTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...AND BREEZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
WIDESPREAD...BUT RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING WEST TO THE AZ-NM-MEXICO TRIPLE POINT.
THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE LOOKS TO RESIDE IN THE 700-500MB LAYER AND
WILL MOST LIKELY RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN CLOUDS MOVING NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY IN THE ABSENCE OF MUCH INSTABILITY OR DYNAMICS.
ON FRIDAY...IT DOES LOOK LIKE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE AROUND
ACROSS MOHAVE TO HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF FLIP-FLOPPING ON JUST HOW MUCH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE AROUND FRIDAY THAT I WILL LEAVE IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF CLARK...SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN...AND EASTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTIES.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST SATURDAY AS DRIER SOUTHWEST
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE IN. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH
INCLUDING LINCOLN COUNTY. HAVE ALSO LEFT IN A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR ESMERALDA AND NORTHERN INYO COUNTIES AS THE
SHORTWAVE MAY CREATE ENOUGH FORCING FOR A FEW SHOWERS.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING DRY AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THE ECMWF KEEPING A
BIT OF MOISTURE ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTY BOTH DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO HANG RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR
MID-AUGUST.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...STACHELSKI
PREVIOUS...WOLCOTT
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