492
FXUS65 KTWC 130352
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
852 PM MST MON AUG 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...DRYING AGAIN TO START THE WEEK WITH FEWER THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE BACK INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AROUND WEDNESDAY
FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 13/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
RIDGING OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO AND INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS...WITH A
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST
BRITISH COLUMBIA. BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...ARIZONA RESIDES UNDER
A LARGE SWATH OF DRY MID LEVEL AIR THAT COVERS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WATERS INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...NORTHERN BAJA AND A LARGE
PART OF ARIZONA. A FEW STORMS FIRED OFF THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN MY
FORECAST AREA AND MOVED TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE
STORMS HAVE EITHER DISSIPATED OR MOVED INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO AT
THIS TIME. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST TO REMOVE THE
MENTION OF ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION SEEMED TO BE ON TRACK...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONS AND WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF
NEEDED.
FOR INFO REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...SCT-BKN CLOUDS MOSTLY AT 8-12K FT AGL THIS EVENING FROM
KTUS EASTWARD...THEN SKC-FEW CLOUDS 8-12K FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREAFTER...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR
THIS WEEK...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WITH THE LARGER SCALE FLOW WEAKENING
CONSIDERABLY AS THE HIGH RECONSOLIDATES OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND
NORTHWEST MEXICO...WE SHOULD SEE THE MOISTURE INCREASE BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH SOME RETURNING
MOISTURE FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...THE RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVELS WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE HIGH
CENTER WILL BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR. WE'LL START TO INCREASE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AGAIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL NOT UP TO NORMAL COVERAGE LEVELS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.
WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD EXPECT HOTTER TEMPERATURES MUCH OF THE
WEEK...ABOUT 4 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER