Area Forecast Discussion


163 
FXUS65 KTWC 160919
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
219 AM MST WED OCT 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY 
NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR ARE 
EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY 
MORNING. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO NEAR 
AVERAGE THIS WEEKEND WITH A RIDGE NEAR THE WEST COAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ARIZONA WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A HIGH 
PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH A MEAN TROUGH OF LOW 
PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL 
ALLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO DROP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF 
THE RIDGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS SHOWED ONE TRACKING EAST OF THE 
AREA TODAY AND THE NEXT ONE MOVING THROUGH AROUND THURSDAY AND 
FRIDAY. THAT SAID...COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH SOME OF THE 
COLDEST NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES IN AWHILE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND 
THURSDAY NIGHT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED SOME SPOTTY 
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND FREEZING IN THE HIGHER VALLEYS OF COCHISE 
COUNTY FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS. NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO 
WARRANT A FREEZE WARNING AT THIS TIME THOUGH. ALONG WITH 
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS CAN BE 
ANTICIPATED WITH EACH PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THROUGH 17/12Z. CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE WINDS LESS 
THAN 10 KTS THIS MORNING BECOMING WEST 5 TO 15 KTS AFTER 18Z. WINDS 
WILL THEN TAPER OFF AFTER 17/02Z AND REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. 
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE AIRMASS 
WILL BE QUITE DRY WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS 
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SOME AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IS EXPECTED MAINLY 
EAST OF TUCSON TODAY AND THURSDAY AS WEATHER SYSTEMS PASS BY TO THE 
NORTH. MAINLY LIGHT AND DIURNAL WINDS EXPECTED THEREAFTER INTO EARLY 
NEXT WEEK.
&&
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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