Area Forecast Discussion


819 
FXUS64 KTSA 130457
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1157 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2013
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR
TAF SITES GENERALLY IN THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME. SOUTHERN
TAF SITES KMLC/KFSM MAY SEE THUNDER AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY
THROUGH 15Z.  CONDITIONS IMPROVING IN 15Z-21Z TIMEFRAME AS
MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MIGRATES SOUTH AND EAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 853 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2013/ 
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST AREA IS ESSENTIALLY CONVECTION-FREE AT
THIS TIME...BUT THAT WON'T LAST. BASED ON LATEST
OUTPUT FROM HRRR/RUC/LOCAL MODEL...BELIEVE THAT
ONGOING ACTIVITY ACROSS WRN/NWRN OK AND SWRN KS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEVELOP E AND SE...AIDED
BY VEERING 20-25KT SWLY LOW JET. HAVE NUDGED DOWN
POPS FOR THE EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCES LIKELY
HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE PLACED AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-40
CORRIDOR...ALTHOUGH NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT. THAT
SAID...WILL LEAVE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS.
UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT AROUND 9 PM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  85  67  85 /  60  60  50  30 
FSM   73  85  69  87 /  60  60  60  30 
MLC   73  87  69  84 /  70  60  60  50 
BVO   70  83  66  86 /  50  50  50  20 
FYV   68  84  63  84 /  50  50  50  20 
BYV   67  84  62  81 /  30  50  50  20 
MKO   72  84  68  85 /  70  60  60  30 
MIO   69  84  64  84 /  30  50  50  20 
F10   73  85  68  84 /  70  60  60  40 
HHW   74  93  72  85 /  50  40  60  60 
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ054-OKZ055-
     OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-
     OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-
     OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...21