380
FXUS64 KTSA 161144
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
644 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MID CLOUD DECK PREDOMINANT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS PV MAX WILL LIFT EAST NORTHEAST OVER THE
PLAINS TODAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH...A PLUME OF
MOISTURE...SOME OF WHICH IS THE REMNANTS OF OCTAVE...STRETCHES
FROM TEXAS EAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT HAS BEEN
RAINING BENEATH THIS PLUME FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT DOWN OVER
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. HOWEVER...THIS IS
COMING TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE PARENT TROUGH TO THE
WEST MOVES IN OUR DIRECTION. QG LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE FOUR
CORNERS PV MAX WILL OVERSPREAD KANSAS AND FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.
A BEAUTIFUL DAY IS IN STORE FOR THURSDAY WITH LOTS OF SUN AND
HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S.
IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS SYSTEM...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED POSITIVE PNA
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A WEST COAST RIDGE AND CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH WILL BE
PREVALENT...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THIS
GENERAL FLOW PATTERN. ONE SUCH SYSTEM WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY. QG/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH A LACK OF
QUALITY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIMIT AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE. A
FABULOUS WEEKEND IS IN STORE AFTER THAT SYSTEM DEPARTS.
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS REGARDING MOISTURE RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW. FOR NOW...WILL ELECT TO KEEP
THE GOING DRY FORECAST. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS POISED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST
OUT OF CANADA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK /DAY 7/...AND COULD
BRING THE STRONGEST FRONT OF THE FALL SEASON THUS FAR. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED...SO EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
LACY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 63 42 72 44 / 10 10 0 10
FSM 64 48 71 44 / 10 10 0 10
MLC 63 42 72 44 / 10 10 0 10
BVO 61 38 72 40 / 10 20 0 10
FYV 62 43 67 38 / 10 10 0 10
BYV 61 45 66 42 / 10 20 0 10
MKO 63 41 72 42 / 10 10 0 10
MIO 61 40 69 40 / 10 20 0 10
F10 62 42 72 43 / 10 10 0 10
HHW 64 47 72 47 / 20 10 0 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...21