Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KTBW 102324
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
624 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2017
.AVIATION (00z TAFs)...
VFR conditions to prevail through the period with light
northerly winds.
.Prev Discussion... /issued 249 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2017/ 
SHORT TERM (Tonight-Monday)...
A cold and dry airmass is in place across the area today
with weakening N/NW winds. Winds will become light for the
late evening and overnight hours and with clear skies in
place, will allow for good radiational cooling. Freezing
temperatures are expected across the nature coast overnight,
with some also sneaking into eastern Pasco. Thus, a freeze
warning has been raised for this area for the pre-dawn
hours. Elsewhere, lows expected to fall into the mid to
upper 30s inland, and in the 40s along the coast. Ridging 
and the dry air will remain in place for Monday, with highs 
expected to reach into the lower to mid 60s most locations.
Skies will again be mostly clear with light N/NE winds
becoming N/NW in the afternoon. 
LONG TERM (Monday Night-Sunday)...
Broad mid/upper level troughing will remain over the eastern
half of the CONUS through the period with a series of 
shortwaves moving through it. At the surface, high pressure 
will stretch across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida to start 
the period with fair and dry weather for Monday night and 
Tuesday along with a slight moderating trend as a cold front
approaches from the northwest. This front will move south 
across the region late Tuesday and Tuesday night with only a
few extra clouds expected during this time. A reinforcing 
shot of cool dry air will follow this boundary for midweek 
as another area of high pressure builds in from the west. 
Late in the week the next cold front will approach from the 
northwest Thursday night and Friday with a quick moderating 
trend. The global models are beginning to show timing 
differences with the ECMWF much slower by about 18 to 24 
hours and wetter than the GFS. For now have left the slight 
chance to chance PoPs in the forecast for Thursday night 
through Friday night and will have to wait and see how 
things evolve over the next few days. 
VFR conditions through the period with winds becoming light
overnight and mostly clear skies. 
Winds and seas are continuing to subside this afternoon.
Generally N/NW winds in place across the waters at 10 to 15
knots or lighter. High pressure will continue to ridge
across the area through Tuesday, then a dry reinforcing
front will push through the area late Tuesday. Ridging
returns across the waters through the end of the week, with
winds briefly increasing behind the front for Wednesday to
near SCA. Another front will be moving through on Friday.
No warnings required due to low ERC values, but relative
humidities will be below critical levels for a few hours
Monday afternoon, and again Wednesday afternoon, with a dry
reinforcing front moving through the area late Tuesday.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  42  64  52  73 /   0   0   0  10 
FMY  41  67  48  74 /   0   0   0  10 
GIF  38  63  45  73 /   0   0   0  10 
SRQ  40  65  51  73 /   0   0   0  10 
BKV  31  63  44  73 /   0   0   0  10 
SPG  47  63  55  73 /   0   0   0  10 
FL...Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 8 AM EST Monday for Coastal 
     Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus-
     Inland Hernando-Inland Levy-Inland Pasco-Sumter.
Gulf waters...None.