FXUS62 KTBW 102324
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
624 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2017
.AVIATION (00z TAFs)...
VFR conditions to prevail through the period with light
.Prev Discussion... /issued 249 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2017/
SHORT TERM (Tonight-Monday)...
A cold and dry airmass is in place across the area today
with weakening N/NW winds. Winds will become light for the
late evening and overnight hours and with clear skies in
place, will allow for good radiational cooling. Freezing
temperatures are expected across the nature coast overnight,
with some also sneaking into eastern Pasco. Thus, a freeze
warning has been raised for this area for the pre-dawn
hours. Elsewhere, lows expected to fall into the mid to
upper 30s inland, and in the 40s along the coast. Ridging
and the dry air will remain in place for Monday, with highs
expected to reach into the lower to mid 60s most locations.
Skies will again be mostly clear with light N/NE winds
becoming N/NW in the afternoon.
LONG TERM (Monday Night-Sunday)...
Broad mid/upper level troughing will remain over the eastern
half of the CONUS through the period with a series of
shortwaves moving through it. At the surface, high pressure
will stretch across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida to start
the period with fair and dry weather for Monday night and
Tuesday along with a slight moderating trend as a cold front
approaches from the northwest. This front will move south
across the region late Tuesday and Tuesday night with only a
few extra clouds expected during this time. A reinforcing
shot of cool dry air will follow this boundary for midweek
as another area of high pressure builds in from the west.
Late in the week the next cold front will approach from the
northwest Thursday night and Friday with a quick moderating
trend. The global models are beginning to show timing
differences with the ECMWF much slower by about 18 to 24
hours and wetter than the GFS. For now have left the slight
chance to chance PoPs in the forecast for Thursday night
through Friday night and will have to wait and see how
things evolve over the next few days.
VFR conditions through the period with winds becoming light
overnight and mostly clear skies.
Winds and seas are continuing to subside this afternoon.
Generally N/NW winds in place across the waters at 10 to 15
knots or lighter. High pressure will continue to ridge
across the area through Tuesday, then a dry reinforcing
front will push through the area late Tuesday. Ridging
returns across the waters through the end of the week, with
winds briefly increasing behind the front for Wednesday to
near SCA. Another front will be moving through on Friday.
No warnings required due to low ERC values, but relative
humidities will be below critical levels for a few hours
Monday afternoon, and again Wednesday afternoon, with a dry
reinforcing front moving through the area late Tuesday.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 42 64 52 73 / 0 0 0 10
FMY 41 67 48 74 / 0 0 0 10
GIF 38 63 45 73 / 0 0 0 10
SRQ 40 65 51 73 / 0 0 0 10
BKV 31 63 44 73 / 0 0 0 10
SPG 47 63 55 73 / 0 0 0 10
FL...Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 8 AM EST Monday for Coastal
Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus-
Inland Hernando-Inland Levy-Inland Pasco-Sumter.
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/Hubbard
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...69/Close