Area Forecast Discussion


468 
FXUS62 KTAE 151738
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1238 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017
.AVIATION [Through 18Z Saturday]...
VFR conditions will continue with light northerly winds. Drizzle or 
brief light rain is possible this afternoon but it will be very 
isolated.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION [931 AM EST]...
.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
The main weather feature today is a dry cold front, aided by an 
upper trough across the eastern and central CONUS, which will move 
through the area this morning. At the same time, the subtropical 
jet, with mid/high clouds streaming across the Gulf and southeast 
CONUS, will remain in place today. Variable winds will become 
northwesterly behind the front and skies remaining mostly cloudy. 
Virtually NIL chance for precipitation, with the exception of the 
offshore waters today. Cold air advection, along with the thick 
cloud cover, will keep highs in the 50s across the northern half of 
the area and 60s across the southern half where cold air advection 
will take the longest to penetrate.
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...
Quiet and dry conditions will prevail through much of the short term 
period, as upper level flow becomes zonal with the departure of the 
upper low that previously dominated much of the eastern third of the 
CONUS this past week. Subtropical ridging will build in across the 
Caribbean/Florida Peninsula on Saturday, amplifying on Sunday 
with the approach of the first shortwave trough in a series of 
shortwave troughs that will affect the regions weather into the 
next week. Shower chances will increase across the western third 
of the area with the approach of the aforementioned approaching 
wave, as an influx of moisture around the periphery of the 
subtropical ridge will precede the shortwave trough. Rain chances 
will spread eastward across the region into the long term period 
discussed below.
Temperatures will remain near average on Saturday behind a dry cool 
front. Afternoon highs will generally range from the upper 50s to 
mid 60s, with lows remaining in the 40s. Warm air will advect into 
the region on Sunday, increasing high temperatures by 8 to 10 
degrees into the low 70s regionwide. Overnight lows Sunday night 
will remain elevated due to mostly cloudy conditions, with readings 
in the upper 50s to low 60s.
.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
The first of several shortwave troughs will be in the process of 
lifting poleward across the Tennessee/Ohio River Valley's at the 
beginning of the long term period, with a ribbon of subtropical 
moisture draped across the tri-state region. As a result, the 
remainder of Sunday into Monday will be wet, with elevated shower 
and isolated thunderstorm chances across the region. Beyond Monday, 
the forecast details remain murky tonight, as operational model 
guidance continues to exhibit some differences in the details 
regarding the second shortwave trough progged to traverse the 
southeast during the mid to late week timeframe. At this time, 
confidence is high in wet and unsettled weather to continue trough
much of the week, despite any differences regarding the 
strength/progression of this feature. Beyond the end of the long 
term period, there is reasonable agreement in longer range 
guidance in another system approaching the region by the end of 
the week, bringing with it another wave of unsettled weather. 
Expect temperatures to run above normal for highs and lows through
much of the period.
.MARINE...
Winds will generally remain below cautionary levels through much of 
the period. The strongest winds are expected offshore on Sunday 
afternoon, where speeds will approach 15 knots. Seas will generally 
range from 2 to 4 feet.
.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will move across the area this morning. The front is 
dry so no precipitation expected. Other than a wind shift to the 
northwest, little fanfare is expected with the front. Therefore, no 
hazardous fire weather conditions expected.
.HYDROLOGY...
No meaningful rain is expected through much of the weekend. Late 
Sunday through early next week, there's the potential for average 
rainfall amounts of 1-3" with isolated higher amounts. The QPF early 
next week remains uncertain as models differ significantly regarding 
the details of the evolution of the frontal system. These rainfall 
estimates are subject to change in either direction. Based on the 
current amounts forecast, flooding is not expected to be a concern.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   42  61  43  72  58 /  10   0  10  10  20 
Panama City   42  61  49  71  63 /  10   0  10  20  40 
Dothan        34  59  42  71  59 /  10   0   0  20  50 
Albany        34  59  40  71  57 /  10   0   0  10  40 
Valdosta      41  60  41  72  57 /  10   0   0   0  20 
Cross City    45  66  44  76  57 /  10   0   0   0  10 
Apalachicola  45  61  50  70  63 /  10   0  10  20  30 
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Gulf.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...McD
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM...Pullin
AVIATION...McD
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Pullin
HYDROLOGY...Scholl