282
FXUS62 KTAE 161425
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1025 AM EDT Wed Oct 16 2013
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Mid/upper level ridging will continue to dampen through the day as
broad troughing continues to push southeast. At the surface, the
skinny eastern U.S. ridge will weaken as well as a cold front and
generally lower pressures spread east as well. During this
transition however, there will be little in the way of large-scale
forcing for showers and thunderstorms. Additionally, a subsidence
inversion between 700-800 mb will limit any sort of deep layer
ascent. Thus, expect weak convergent easterly flow to continue
through the day, possibly generating a shallow shower or two
across the Florida peninsula. Any showers that do form will be
hard-pressed to make it far enough west to affect the local area.
Cloud cover this morning hasn't been quite as thick or expansive
as yesterday, so expect an easier scattering this afternoon.
Expect temperatures to climb to the middle to upper 80s
essentially west of the Apalachicola and Chattahoochee rivers,
while lower to middle 80s will be more common further east.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday]...
The large scale pattern commences tonight highlighted by low over
Ontario with trough axis Swwd to low over SE NE Swwd into W TX, a
flat ridge over Gulf region and gulf waters, and a trough across
extreme Wrn Atlc. At surface, low over Ontario with cold front SSW
across TN Valley, MS then into Wrn Gulf waters. High pressure
dominates the NE Gulf region. Locally per area soundings, this
translates to very light winds at surface, then winds veering to SW
to around H8 then WNW above. Low level moisture remains impressive
with PWATS around 1.5 inches. With light onshore flow and good low
level moisture, chance for fog increases and will be addressed in the
GRIDS.
On Thursday, the broad Cntrl trough/low is expected to begin lifting
Newd with very broad troughing dominating Gulf region Thurs night
thru Fri. A potent and fast moving shortwave ejecting from this
trough will move across OH/TN Valleys on Thurs reaching mid-Atlc
coast at night helping to push a cold front towards the Gulf Coast
and shunting high east of our area. The boundary will likely
bisect the CWFA Thurs night with Srn tail stalling there thru
Friday as upper steering flow becomes SWLY. Within warm sector,
area dew points increase to mid 60s across coastal counties while
PWATs increase to around 1.8 inches allowing rain chances to creep
up mainly for SE AL and the Panhandle thru the period. However,
with the main upper energy lifting out to the NE yielding
weakening upper dynamics and weak convergence, plus poor lapse
rates and clouds retarding deep insolation, the front will
progressively weaken and rain coverage is expected to be scattered
at best. Isold Tstms possible mainly Thurs aftn.
Expect 30-40% NW third down to 10-20% SE third of CWFA each day.
This follows closely local CAM and Confidence tool and a GFS/NAM
blend. Warm onshore flow ahead of the front will boost max temps
especially across Ern areas farthest from advancing clouds.
Expect highs from mid 80s west to upper 80s east on Thurs and
under increasing clouds, low 80s to mid 80s on Fri. Fog likely
again late Thurs night into Fri morning moderating pre-dawn lows.
&&
.LONG TERM [Friday Night through Tuesday]...
At the beginning of the forecast period, a broad trough will be
situated over the central portion of the country, with a frontal
boundary stalled across the Deep South. Through early next week
the upper trough is forecast to move very slowly to the east. A
series of shortwaves in the northern stream will likely generate
several rounds of scattered showers through the weekend and into
early next week along the stalled boundary, with lingering
southern stream energy over Texas keeping the front from clearing
the region to the south. The timing of the various shortwaves
varies from run to run and model to model. So, for now, will keep
the PoPs relatively low (scattered) and broad-brushed across the
area.
&&
.AVIATION [Beginning 14Z Wednesday]...
VFR conditions are expected today. Although a scattered to broken
low/mid cloud deck is expected at and around all terminals this
afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
A weakening area of surface high presure will result in weakening
winds and lowering seas through the day. This trend of low winds
and seas will continue through the weekend when a cold front may
pass through our waters, with high pressure and stronger winds
building in its wake.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not anticipated over the next
several days as relative humidity values remain above critical
levels.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No significant hydrology concerns are expected through the next
several days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 84 64 88 66 85 / 10 10 10 10 30
Panama City 83 69 84 68 81 / 10 10 20 20 30
Dothan 85 65 84 62 82 / 10 10 30 20 30
Albany 83 64 86 63 84 / 10 10 30 20 30
Valdosta 81 63 88 65 86 / 10 10 10 10 20
Cross City 83 63 88 64 86 / 10 10 10 10 20
Apalachicola 82 68 83 69 80 / 10 10 10 10 20
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...Block
LONG TERM...Camp
AVIATION...Harrigan
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Godsey
HYDROLOGY...Camp/Block