269
FXUS64 KSJT 162055
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
355 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
.SHORT TERM...
After several days of wet weather, West Central TX will see a brief
dry period. Dry, westerly flow aloft has pushed the Pacific moisture
axis off to our east with a more subsident regime overspreading the
area. Cloud cover has been slow to erode despite the low-level dry
air, but I think we'll see this process hasten once the trough axis
associated with the shortwave ejecting into the Plains passes. Skies
will become mostly clear to partly cloudy overnight with winds
becoming light and variable as the surface anticyclone traverses the
area. Areas that are able to clear will see dewpoint depressions
near zero. This will be supportive of patchy fog given the cool
temperatures and residual surface moisture. Expect overnight lows in
the low to mid 40s across West Central TX. Winds will become
southeasterly on Thursday. Skies are expected to be partly cloudy
with afternoon temperatures warming into the lower 70s.
Johnson
.LONG TERM...
A chance of showers on Friday. Low level moisture returns Thursday
night and Friday. Have a mention of isolated showers during the day
on Friday, though lift is limited. Friday night I have a chance of
showers and thunderstorms, due to a combination of cold front Friday
evening, and upper lift from an approaching upper through from the
West. Instability Friday night however is limited with maximum GFS
and NAM SBCAPES in the 300 to 800 J/KG range, along and west of a
Colorado City...San Angelo...Sonora line. Moisture rapidly clears
after midnight Friday night as drier air moves in behind the cold
front. Friday itself is a little cooler than Thursday, mainly due to
increased cloud cover. For Saturday, surface high pressure will be
directly over West Texas, with light winds and highs in the 63 to 68
range.
Kept a slight chance of thunderstorms on Monday. Confidence is not
high, however, with limited moisture return and weak shortwave.
Precipitation still indicated in the GFS model algorithm, but EC
model locates rainfall to the south of the region.
04
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 41 71 49 67 44 / 0 0 10 30 20
San Angelo 43 73 52 71 50 / 5 0 10 20 30
Junction 46 75 52 72 52 / 10 5 10 20 50
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
04