Area Forecast Discussion


269 
FXUS64 KSJT 162055
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
355 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
.SHORT TERM...
After several days of wet weather, West Central TX will see a brief 
dry period. Dry, westerly flow aloft has pushed the Pacific moisture 
axis off to our east with a more subsident regime overspreading the 
area. Cloud cover has been slow to erode despite the low-level dry 
air, but I think we'll see this process hasten once the trough axis 
associated with the shortwave ejecting into the Plains passes. Skies 
will become mostly clear to partly cloudy overnight with winds 
becoming light and variable as the surface anticyclone traverses the 
area. Areas that are able to clear will see dewpoint depressions 
near zero. This will be supportive of patchy fog given the cool 
temperatures and residual surface moisture. Expect overnight lows in 
the low to mid 40s across West Central TX. Winds will become 
southeasterly on Thursday. Skies are expected to be partly cloudy 
with afternoon temperatures warming into the lower 70s.
Johnson
.LONG TERM...
A chance of showers on Friday. Low level moisture returns Thursday 
night and Friday. Have a mention of isolated showers during the day 
on Friday, though lift is limited. Friday night I have a chance of 
showers and thunderstorms, due to a combination of cold front Friday 
evening, and upper lift from an approaching upper through from the 
West. Instability Friday night however is limited with maximum GFS 
and NAM SBCAPES in the 300 to 800 J/KG range, along and west of a 
Colorado City...San Angelo...Sonora line. Moisture rapidly clears 
after midnight Friday night as drier air moves in behind the cold 
front. Friday itself is a little cooler than Thursday, mainly due to 
increased cloud cover. For Saturday, surface high pressure will be 
directly over West Texas, with light winds and highs in the 63 to 68 
range.  
Kept a slight chance of thunderstorms on Monday. Confidence is not 
high, however, with limited moisture return and weak shortwave. 
Precipitation still indicated in the GFS model algorithm, but EC 
model locates rainfall to the south of the region.
04
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  41  71  49  67  44 /   0   0  10  30  20 
San Angelo  43  73  52  71  50 /   5   0  10  20  30 
Junction  46  75  52  72  52 /  10   5  10  20  50 
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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