740
FXUS64 KSHV 161109
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
609 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT HAD MOVED INTO PARTS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS
AND LOWER PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA SOUTH OF
A MONROE AND NATCHITOCHES LOUISIANA AND LUFKIN TEXAS LINE.
OVER THE TOP OF THE COLDER AIR IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...A DEEP AND
RICH SUPPLY OF GULF OF MEXICO AND PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUED TO
SPREAD FROM WEST TEXAS NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA...NORTHEAST ACROSS
MOST OF TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THE REST OF THE COUNTRY
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT EXTENDED
SOUTHWEST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND TO THE BIG BEND AREA OF WEST TEXAS. ALTHOUGH THERE
WERE NO THUNDERSTORMS INDICATED...RAIN OF MODERATE TO HEAVY INTENSITY
CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE SAME GENERAL LOCATIONS.
WILL CARRY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 1 PM TODAY AS ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AND LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO
NEAR 3 INCHES CAN PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SOUTH OF
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL SWING EAST INTO THE
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY CLEARING OUT THE RAINFALL WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING
TO SETTLE ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION. ANOTHER LARGE AND BROAD
UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY DURING LATE WEEK AND
WILL RETURN RAIN CHANCES AS PACIFIC MOISTURE AGAIN SPREADS NORTHEAST
INTO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
WITH LITTLE TIME TO INCREASE BUT THE MOISTURE ALOFT WILL WORK DOWN.
WITH THIS WEEKEND UPPER TROUGH WILL COME OUR NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL
RETURN COOLER AND DRIER AIR. THIS DRY PERIOD WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STARTS IT CHARGE FOR THE START OF THE
WORK WEEK RETURNING RAIN CHANCES INTO LATE TUESDAY. /06/
&&
.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE NEARLY ALL
TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING AT LFK. ANOTHER
SWATH OF HEAVIER RAIN IS MOVING EAST FROM CENTRAL TX INTO NE TX AND
WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS THROUGH ALL THE AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE 16/12Z TAF PERIOD. CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UP AND DOWN WITH INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL...BUT
GENERALLY LOOKING AT LEAST MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH PERIODS OF LIFR CIGS THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT
RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL THIS INCLEMENT WX HAS SHIFTED EAST ALONG A LINE
FROM NEAR MLU...IER...LFK. THE POST-FRONTAL RAIN IS BEING ENHANCED
BY INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE AND THE LAGGING UPPER TROUGH WHICH
WILL FINALLY KICK OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER TODAY AND
INTO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VARY EARLY THIS MORNING BUT
THE TREND WILL BE FOR A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION AREA WIDE AFTER
SUNRISE THIS MORNING WITH SPEEDS FROM 5-10 KTS. /19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 66 53 72 50 74 / 90 30 10 10 10
MLU 69 56 73 49 76 / 90 50 20 10 10
DEQ 65 44 69 39 72 / 70 20 10 10 10
TXK 61 49 70 47 75 / 90 20 10 10 10
ELD 63 50 70 44 73 / 90 30 10 10 10
TYR 62 49 71 49 71 / 90 20 10 10 10
GGG 63 49 73 47 74 / 90 30 10 10 10
LFK 69 55 75 51 74 / 90 50 10 10 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001>004-010.
OK...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.
&&
$$
06/19