Area Forecast Discussion


550 
FXUS64 KSHV 130241
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
941 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG A BROAD SURFACE BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM THE RED RIVER IN NORTHEAST TEXAS TO EL DORADO ARKANSAS.
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FROM HOMER LOUISIANA TO CROSSETT
ARKANSAS. FOR THIS UPDATE...KEPT ONGOING POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS
INTACT. MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO MAINTAIN NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
TEMPERATURE GRIDS DUE TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ALREADY
ESTABLISHED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
TEXAS...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. /05/
&&
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING THE ARKLATEX...LATE DAY CONVECTION STRETCHES FROM NEAR 
KSHV...TO JUST SOUTH OF KELD AND WILL AFFECT KMLU BY NEXT ISSUANCE 
IF THIS AREA HOLDS TOGETHER. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN EDGING SWWD 
INTO OUR NRN AREAS...BRINGING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION...PERHAPS EVEN 
OVERNIGHT AND THEN THROUGH OUT THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. GENERALLY MVFR 
WITH SOME GUSTY WIND NEAR DOWNPOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT S TO SWLY 
WINDS 5-10 KTS AT MOST SITES VEERING TO THE NW AFTER FROPA MIDWEEK. 
/24/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2013/ 
DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ONLY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
AS OF MID AFTERNOON AND NORTH OF THE CWA IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE SOUTHERN CONVECTION IS MOSTLY DIURNAL AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. THE NORTHERN PRECIPITATION HAS MORE 
SUPPORT...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND A STATIONARY FRONT
BOUNDARY. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST TONIGHT WITH STORMS
EVENTUALLY WORKING INTO NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. ELSEWHERE A
WEAK RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS ANY DEVELOPMENT. LOOK FOR
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...BUT WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE NORTHERN CONVECTION AS A STRONG TROUGH DIGS SOUTH
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...FORCING THE UPPER RIDGE WEST.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROVIDED BY THE TROUGH WILL BRING A FRONT
INTO THE I30 CORRIDOR BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE FRONT WORKS
SLOWLY SOUTH. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. THEN LOOK FOR GOOD
CHANCES OF REDEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT WORKS SOUTH. DRIER AND COOLER AIR
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT THURSDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING ALL BUT
SOUTHERN AREAS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WIND PREVAILING.
QUITE WARM AND HUMID AGAIN TUESDAY BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FOR WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE CONVECTION. BEHIND THE FRONT LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE 60S AREA WIDE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
WIDELY SCT CONVECTION NOTED ACROSS PARTS OF NW/N CENTRAL LA...AND 
ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF SE OK THIS AFTN. MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD 
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A COLD FRONT 
IS FCST TO BEGIN EDGING SWWD INTO OUR NRN AREAS...POSSIBLY BRINGING 
CONVECTION TO AREAS ALONG AND NE OF A KPRX/KSHV/KMLU LINE AS EARLY 
AS MID MORNING TUESDAY...EXPANDING SWD BY THE AFTERNOON. 
OTHERWISE...EXPECT S TO SWLY WINDS 5-10 KTS AT MOST SITES...WITH THE 
EXCEPTION OF KTXK/KELD/KMLU WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE WINDS VEERING TO 
THE NW AFTER FROPA TUESDAY. /12/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  97  75  88  70 /  20  30  40  50  30 
MLU  73  98  73  87  68 /  40  40  50  60  40 
DEQ  72  95  72  85  62 /  20  40  70  50  20 
TXK  75  96  72  86  65 /  20  40  60  50  30 
ELD  73  98  71  86  64 /  30  50  60  50  30 
TYR  76  97  75  90  72 /  10  10  30  50  30 
GGG  75  97  75  89  71 /  20  20  30  40  30 
LFK  73  97  74  95  74 /  10  10  20  40  30 
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
05/24