Area Forecast Discussion


338 
FXUS66 KSGX 161119
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
420 AM PDT WED OCT 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY 
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUSTY 
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS AND FAVORED 
PASSES AND CANYONS THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY 
NORTHEAST WINDS FRIDAY. MINOR COOLING FOR THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY NEAR 
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS BRINGING LOCALLY GUSTY 
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS EARLY THIS 
MORNING. WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN OVERLY STRONG WITH MOST GUSTS 40 MPH OR 
LESS WITH THE STRONGEST OF 47 MPH AT SILL HILL IN THE SAN DIEGO 
COUNTY MOUNTAINS WEST OF CUYAMACA PEAK. WHERE MIXING FROM THE WINDS 
IN THE VALLEYS AND INLAND COASTAL AREAS IS OCCURRING...TEMPERATURES 
ARE IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS 
MORNING...THEN DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY STRATUS NEAR PORTIONS 
OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST TUESDAY EVENING HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED 
WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWING SOME PATCHY STRATUS OFF THE 
NORTHERN BAJA COAST. THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND LESSENED MARINE INFLUENCE 
WILL PUSH WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE COAST TODAY WITH 
GREATEST COASTAL WARMING IN SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY.
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE 
GREAT BASIN THURSDAY WILL BRING WEAKER WINDS TO SOUTHWEST 
CALIFORNIA. PATCHY STRATUS MAY RETURN NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT 
INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH COOLING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. 
AS THE GREAT BASIN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE 
SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE 
GREAT BASIN...GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP NEAR THE 
COASTAL FOOTHILLS FRIDAY MORNING. COASTAL STRATUS MAY PRECEDE THE 
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE FLOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW 
PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH GENERALLY WEAK LOWER 
LEVEL FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES 
WITH PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG 
POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...
160930Z...CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. 
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST THROUGH CORRIDORS THROUGH/BELOW FOOTHILLS 
THROUGH ABOUT 19Z. LLWS IS EXPECTED WHERE WINDS DO NOT QUITE 
SURFACE...SUCH AS AT KSNA THROUGH 17Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING 
NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH. LOWEST 
HUMIDITIES FOR INLAND AREAS WILL FALL TO AROUND 10 PERCENT TODAY.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY LATE MORNING...THOUGH VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL 
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH HUMIDITIES AROUND 8 TO 15 
PERCENT.  CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH CRITICAL FIRE 
WEATHER THRESHOLDS.
A MODEST RECOVERY IN HUMIDITIES WITH WEAKER WINDS FOR THURSDAY... 
THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS FRIDAY WITH GUSTS TO 
AROUND 40 MPH AND LOWER HUMIDITIES. AS WITH TODAY...IT DOES NOT 
APPEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS WILL BE MET.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY 
     MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY        
     COASTAL AREAS...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE 
     INLAND EMPIRE...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MM