619
FXUS63 KSGF 130809
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
309 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2013
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE AUG 13 2013
A change in our weather pattern was underway this morning. The
forecast area was rain free with an axis of convection located to
the west stretching from south central Kansas into western Arkansas.
This activity was focused along the 850 MB front that had sagged
to our south.
The upper pattern was in process of amplifying which will leave
our region under a northwesterly flow. This will also allow surface
high pressure to build into the area. The result will be the
advection of a drier and cooler airmass into the region.
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm may impact far southwestern
Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas mainly this morning as
precipitation to our west makes some eastward progress as a minor
shortwave tracks across the region. However any precipitation that
makes into our forecast area will likely be on a diminishing trend
as it encounters drier air. With the risk of heavy rainfall
greatly diminished the Flash Flood Watch has been cancelled.
Very comfortable temperatures are in store tonight as a drier
airmass continues to filter into the area.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Through Monday)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE AUG 13 2013
The region will remain under a northwesterly flow aloft the
remainder of the week into the weekend. Meanwhile an expansive
area of surface high will build from Canada into the much of the
eastern U.S. The flow around this high will continue to advect an
unseasonably cool and dry airmass into the area. This result will
be high temperatures generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
As the case often times in a northwesterly flow pattern we will
have to monitor minor shortwaves riding southeastward that could
bring an increase in clouds and a chance for convection. Once such
shortwave approaches Friday. I have gone with a slight chance for
showers from southeastern Kansas into central Missouri at this
time.
The flow aloft will become less amplified as we head into next
week. This will lead to a gradual increase in temperatures and
moisture with the next chance of showers and thunderstorms returning
next Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2013
Main forecast focus tonight will be with stratus/fog
redevelopment. As per the past couple of nights, a light wind and
clearing sky with a very moist boundary layer will allow for the
formation of stratus/fog development...especially at BBG and SGF.
Have taken visibility down to 2 miles tonight and ceilings at 300
feet between 08z and 12z. Convection from the north along the
frontal boundary has dissipated this evening, and newer model runs
are suggesting the convection in Kansas and Oklahoma will remain
west of the CWA.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Lindenberg