Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS63 KSGF 171130
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
530 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 134 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017
A broad area of light rain was moving into the Ozarks and is 
expected to continue through this morning. The rain will end from
southwest to northeast as we head into the afternoons hours, 
leaving behind cloudy skies for the remainder of the day. Most
locations should see from 0.10" to 0.25" of rain with a lucky few
seeing a bit more. 
The cloud cover will work to keep temperatures from climbing out 
of the 40s for most locations today but will also help to keep
temperatures in the 40s overnight.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 134 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017
Southwesterly flow aloft will continue to start the week with 
mild temperatures Monday and Tuesday. An upper level low, now 
over Baja California, will makes its way east into the Texas 
panhandle and then across northern Texas into Tuesday. A surface
low will develop and aid in brining some more Gulf moisture
northward. Though the surface low will track east, it is forecast
to stay south of the Ozarks with only the potential for some light
precipitation making its way only as far north as the Missouri 
and Arkansas line. Some locations along the state line may see 
some very light measurable precipitation. An location north will 
likely only see a few sprinkles. 
The mild weather will continue through Thursday as semi zonal flow
occurs behind the system late Tuesday night. A cold front will 
then begin to approach the region Thursday evening into early 
Friday morning. This system will bring another shot at some very 
light precipitation but more importantly will bring a colder and 
much more winter like air mass to the Ozarks. 
Behind the front on Friday, day time temperatures will struggle to
make it to 40 degrees for all but the eastern Ozarks as the front
moves slowly east. By the weekend afternoon highs will be in the 
30s for nearly all locations with some areas across south central
Missouri that may approach near the 40 degree mark. 
Models have been hinting at precipitation for Sunday, Christmas 
Eve Day, but there are significant issues with the coverage, 
timing and track of what appears to be a weak system. Will 
continue to watch the trend for now. 
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 525 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017
Low clouds and rain across the region was helping to bring MVFR to
IFR visibilities and ceilings the the areas terminals this 
morning. While the rain is expected to taper off by early 
afternoon, low, IFR cloud covering will linger through the 
remainder of the day and through the overnight hours. 
Expect flight conditions to remain IFR with a slow improvement to
MVFR after sunrise on Monday.