794
FXUS63 KSGF 161742
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1242 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2013
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 148 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
Stream of mid and high level moisture has not budged much so far
this morning. In fact, a few sprinkles/light rain showers have
reemerged across south central Missouri. Not seeing many returns
from area observations down that way, but 30 dBZ returns should be
reaching the ground. Will keep isolated/widely scattered showers
mentioned across this area for the next few hours. Temperatures
the remainder of this morning will remain rather tricky. Areas
that clear out should drop to around 40...and that could be a
rather quick drop to 40 for areas that clear out right around
sunrise. Where clouds linger, mid/upper 40s look to be in order.
Heading into today, a mix of sun and mid/high clouds is expected
as another quick moving shortwave moves into the central Plains.
Weak northerly flow will keep a cold air advection regime in
place, resulting in a seasonably cool day with highs in the upper
50s to lower 60s. Models continuing to eek out enough moisture
return to produce isolated to widely scattered showers tonight as
the shortwave moves southwest to northeast across the region. Not
looking at a huge rain producer, a few hundredths here and there.
Like this morning, low temperatures tonight will depend on
clearing. Where skies clear, lows around 40 can once again be
expected.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 148 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
A trough will begin to develop over south central Canada into the
Great Lakes region by the end of the week. A shortwave around the
base of the trough will pass through Friday night and early on
Saturday. This will bring a chance for a few light showers.
Temperatures will be on the cool side through the weekend with
some moderation by the end of the weekend into early next week.
The 5 wave charts and the long range models are indicating a much
colder weather pattern developing by the middle to end of next
week with a deeper trough digging across the upper Midwest and
Great Lakes region. This will put the Missouri Ozarks in a deep
northerly flow direct from Canada. Another shortwave will pass
through around Tuesday ahead of a stronger cold front. The GFS
solution is wetter than the ECMWF and there is some question on
moisture return with this passage of the front. For this forecast
update...will mention a few scattered showers possible on Tuesday with a
big surge of colder air possibly arriving by the middle to end of
next week. There is some indication of the first frost or
freezing temperatures possible late next week with the ECMWF much
colder with the 00z run.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG Tafs: An upper level disturbance will bring
vfr ceilings to the region over the next few hours after 17/00z.
Some light rain/light showers will be possible with only limited
impact on visibility expected
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...DSA