616
FXUS65 KPUB 161515
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
915 AM MDT WED OCT 16 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 AM MDT WED OCT 16 2013
HAVE CANCELLED WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA AS SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 600 AM MDT WED OCT 16 2013
HAVE CANCELED THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THE PLAINS. COULD SEE TEMPS
BRIEFLY DIP BELOW FREEZING...BUT WIDESPREAD OR LONG DURATION FZ WILL
NOT OCCUR THANKS TO THE SNOW AND RAIN. PROBABLY A BETTER CHANCE
TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR OUT. ROSE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT WED OCT 16 2013
...SNOW WINDING DOWN THIS MORNING...
UPPER LOW NOW MOVING THRU SRN UT/NR AZ PER WV IMAGERY. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER 6 HOURS OR SO OF LIFT ESPECIALLY TO THE SRN MTS AND SERN
PLAINS. ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY FOR THE SRN MTS...AND
WETS CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SHSN AS WELL...SO WINTER HIGHLIGHTS LOOK
ON TRACK. FREEZE WARNING LOOKS OFF-TRACK...THANKS TO ABUNDANT
PRECIP/CLOUDS...BUT WITH ANOTHER 4 PLUS HOURS OF COOLING TO
COME...WILL LEAVE UP FOR NOW SINCE TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW
FREEZING MOST SPOTS...ALTHOUGH HARD FZ IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY. THIS
WILL MEAN ANOTHER LOOK AT POTENTIAL HEADLINES TONIGHT OVER THE
PLAINS...AS SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT AND TEMPS LIKELY FALL AT OR BELOW
FREEZING ONCE AGAIN DESPITE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT.
EXPECT THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO SLOWLY WIND DOWN THIS MORNING...WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE STEADY
PRECIP WILL BE DONE BY MID DAY...BUT COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE MT AREAS. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THINGS
CLEAR...COULD SEE A GOOD REBOUND IN TEMPS FOR THE PLAINS...WITH
LOWER 50S POSSIBLE. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS CONSIDERABLY FOR THE SPOTS
THAT ARE RECEIVING GOOD SNOW ACCUMS RIGHT NOW ...LIKE RYE AND
PORTIONS OF THE NRN SAN LUIS VALLEY. CLEARING OVERNIGHT CONCEPTUALLY
COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG IN THE VALLEYS THU MORNING...BUT MODELS
INDICATE DRYING CONDITIONS FOR THE BL...SO WILL STICK WITH THE
CLEARING SKIES. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT WED OCT 16 2013
...ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW AND RAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE DROPPING
SOUTH ACROSS COLORADO IN NORTHWEST FLOW LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
SYSTEM LOOKS WEAKER AND QUICKER MOVING WITH LESS OVERALL PRECIP
POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERN COLORADO THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE MOST INTENSE WITH THE SYSTEM WHILE THE GFS AND NAM
ARE LESS ENTHUSED. EVEN THE ECMWF IS LESS ENTHUSED THAN IT HAS BEEN
IN PREVIOUS RUNS. SO...THINKING IS THAT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
QUICKLY LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH QUICK ROUND OF SNOW
AND/OR RAIN SHOWERS MOST CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. SYSTEM MAY BE A
LITTLE TOO FAR EAST TO IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN AREAS LIKE THE SAN
JUANS...LA GARITAS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY.
BECAUSE OF THE SYSTEM'S PROGRESSIVE NATURE...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
AND/OR RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT LOOKING ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AT
THIS TIME. THAT BEING SAID...HOWEVER...A FEW PLACES COULD PICK UP
A QUICK COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW AND/OR A QUICK QUARTER INCH OF
PRECIPITATION. SOME OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAIN AREAS COULD
EVEN DO A LITTLE BETTER THAN THAT. THE PALMER DIVIDE...INCLUDING
NORTHERN TELLER AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTIES...COULD SEE A QUICK
COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
SINCE THE SYSTEM IS COMING DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW...CONFIDENCE IN
HOW THIS THING IS ACTUALLY GOING TO TRACK/DEVELOP IS LITTLE
QUESTIONABLE RIGHT NOW. SOMETIMES THESE WAVES COMING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST MOVE LIKE THE MODELS FORETELL AND SOMETIMES THEY END UP
INTENSIFYING A BIT MORE THAN THE MODELS HAD FORECAST. IF THE
LATTER IS TRUE...WE COULD BE DEALING WITH A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION
THAN IT CURRENTLY LOOKS RIGHT NOW. AS ALWAYS...WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND REVISE THE FORECAST AS NECESSARY.
AFTER THE LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY SYSTEM...THERE IS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EACH OF THESE
COLD FRONTS CURRENTLY LOOK DRY...BUT THEY DO EACH DELIVER
REINFORCING SURGES OF COOL AIR. CONSEQUENTLY...WE CAN EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE RIGHT ON INTO
NEXT WEEK. EVEN IF THE FREEZE WARNING DOESN'T WORK OUT TOO WELL
THIS MORNING DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...A FREEZE IS
LIKELY COMING IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. JUST HAVE TO GET THE SKIES TO
CLEAR OUT ONE OF THESE NIGHTS.
THE COOL WEATHER IS A GOOD THING RIGHT NOW. IT WILL HELP RETAIN
ANY MOISTURE WE PICK UP FROM THE CURRENT STORM AND THE NEXT.
THIS...IN TURN...WILL HELP KEEP THE DUST AND FIRE DANGER DOWN AS
SUMMER GRASSES CONTINUE TO CURE. A YEAR AGO AT THIS TIME...WE WERE
JUST ONE WEEK AWAY FROM THE START OF THE WETMORE FIRE THAT BURNED
EXPLOSIVELY FOR A COUPLE DAYS. THE CURING OF FINE FUELS IN THE
FALL IS DEFINITELY A TIME TO BE ON ALERT FOR WILDFIRES. HAVING
INTERMITTENT LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
CERTAINLY HELPS TAKE THE THREAT LEVEL DOWN A NOTCH OR TWO. LW
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT WED OCT 16 2013
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DUE TO LOW CIGS AT KPUB AND KCOS.
CURRENTLY...LOOKS LIKE THINGS SHOULD START TO LIFT IN THE 15-17Z
TIME FRAME. MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER FOR KCOS TO CLEAR OUT. SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON AND STAY THAT WAY THRU TOMORROW.
KALS WILL ALSO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM GENERALLY MVFR THIS
MORN TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW POSSIBILITY
OF SOME VALLEY FOG EARLY THU MORNING...BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN THE
TAFS. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...ROSE