987
FXUS65 KPUB 130308
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
908 PM MDT MON AUG 12 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 PM MDT MON AUG 12 2013
QUICK UPDATE FOR CANCELLATION OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TELLER AND
EL PASO COUNTIES. INCORPORATED LATEST OBS DATA AND TOOK INTO ACCT
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. FEEL THAT ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
LINGER TONIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS...AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...DO NOT FEEL THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES HIGH ENOUGH TO
THREATEN AREA BURN SCARS. MOORE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT MON AUG 12 2013
...FLOODING THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH TOMORROW IS THE CONTINUED FLOODING
THREAT...PARTICULARLY FOR THE WALDO CANYON SCAR AND OTHER AREA BURN
SCARS. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO HOLD IN THE 50S OVER MUCH OF THE ERN
PLAINS...WITH SOME LOWER 60S NR THE KS BORDER. SCATTERED TO NMRS
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVR THE MTS AND ARE
SPREADING EWD THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR...RAIN RATES HAVE GENERALLY
BEEN LIGHT TO MDT...BUT THEY SHOULD INCREASE TOWARDS THIS EVENING.
HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR A CLUSTER OF STORMS
TO DEVELOP OVR THE NRN I-25 CORRIDOR AFTER 00Z. THIS IS LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH ERN UT
AT THIS TIME. THESE STORMS WOULD MOVE SLOWLY TO THE SE THIS
EVENING...AND ON TO KS BY LATE TONIGHT. SO THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z IF NOT LONGER. WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD
WATCH FOR TELLER AND EL PASO THROUGH 3 AM. LINGERING CONVECTION
SHOULD TURN MORE SHOWERY AND ISOLD IN NATURE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS 12Z
TUESDAY.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND PRECIP EARLY...EXPECT TUE MORNING TO BE A
BIT TOO STABLE IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTION.
BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH RECOVERY BY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW MORE
STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ERN MTS IN SHALLOW UPSLOPE CONDITIONS
TOMORROW. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES FOR TOMORROW...SINCE
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW STRONG AND WIDESPREAD STORMS
WILL BE...AND MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW TONIGHT UNFOLDS. ONE THING
THAT LOOKS PRETTY SOLID IS CONTINUED BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS
TOMORROW...GENERALLY UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE PLAINS AND
VALLEYS...AND 60S MTS. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT MON AUG 12 2013
ONE MORE FAIRLY WET DAY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS AND STRONG UPPER WAVE
CLIPS NORTHEAST COLORADO IN THE AFTERNOON. AS USUAL...MESOSCALE
DETAILS WILL DETERMINE WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL...THOUGH
OVERALL ATMOSPHERE APPEARS PRIMED FOR SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING CELLS ONCE AGAIN. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THU INTO THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...WITH MOST STORMS TIED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. RENEWED PUSH OF MONSOON MOISTURE AND STRONG UPPER WAVE
THEN DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA SUN/MON...LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT
UPTURN IN CONVECTION ALL AREAS BOTH DAYS. MAX TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY
CREEP UPWARD FROM THU ONWARD...THOUGH READINGS WON'T GET MUCH
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BEFORE SLIGHT COOLING TREND BEGINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT MON AUG 12 2013
EXPECT AN INCREASED THREAT OF TSRA THIS EVENING AFTER 00Z AND
LASTING AT LEAST THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT AT KCOS AND KPUB. STRONGEST
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL IN ADDITION TO WIND GUSTS TO 40
KTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD REDUCE VIS TO IFR FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED LATE TUE
AFTERNOON. STORMS NR KALS SHOULD BE LESS NMRS AND NOT AS STRONG. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE