746
FXUS66 KPQR 161545
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
845 AM PDT WED OCT 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WAS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH OREGON
TODAY WITH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS AT TIMES EXCEPT SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
AT THE COAST. OTHERWISE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST
WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR DRY
WEATHER WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. AFTER A WEAKENING OF THE OFFSHORE FLOW
TODAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RETURN ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. CHANGES IN THE WEATHER THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE SUBTLE
AND DEPENDENT ON CHANGES IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. UNDER THE HIGH
PRESSURE PATTERN...VALLEYS WILL BE CHILLY AT NIGHT...WITH INVERSIONS
ALLOWING AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING FOG AT TIMES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WAS MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING...WITH THE MAIN BAND OF MID AN UPPER CLOUDS
ALREADY HAVING MOVED THROUGH OUR FORECAST ARE ALREADY. THERE ARE A
FEW MORE TRAILING HIGH CLOUDS THAT WILL STILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY.
SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG WERE ALONG THE COAST AND WILL LINGER THERE
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THIS SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED THE OFFSHORE FLOW
AND EVEN TURNED IT WEAKLY ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST. ALL IN ALL...
EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST...WE WILL STILL SEE AMPLE SUNSHINE TODAY WITH
JUST A MINOR DROP AT MOST IN ANY INLAND TEMPS.
THE MARINE LAYER NEAR THE COAST WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THURSDAY
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THIS WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THE LIGHT FLOW
THURSDAY MORNING MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW A LITTLE BIT MORE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP INLAND...BUT THESE SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED THURSDAY
DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA. THE SURFACE THERMAL LOW
PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF NEAR THE COAST ON THURSDAY...SHIFTS
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...SO THIS SHOULD DECREASE
COVERAGE AGAIN. THE RESULTANT OFFSHORE GRADIENTS ARE NOT REAL STRONG
SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS
INTO FRIDAY. CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR COOL NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS. TOLLESON
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS GRADUALLY
INCREASING BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS...THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. SOME EARLY MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY ONCE AN ONSHORE
FLOW PATTERN RESUMES BUT THIS SHOULD CLEAR TO SUNNY SKIES EACH DAY BY
MIDDAY. LOOKING AHEAD...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE PERSISTENT
RIDGE WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN IN THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. UNTIL THEN...ENJOY THE QUIET WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM
OCTOBER TEMPERATURES. CULLEN
&&
.AVIATION...PATCHY IFR/LIFR FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF THROUGH 17Z
THIS MORNING...MAINLY NEAR KAST AND KEUG. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WITH CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. THEN EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF OVERNIGHT IFR/LIFR FOG TO DEVELOP.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. /27
&&
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN PREVAILS
INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LONGER PERIOD
WESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY TYPHOON WIPHA ARRIVING EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT ASIDE FROM THAT...AND SUMMER LIKE GUSTY NORTH WINDS FROM
TIME TO TIME...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN IN CHECK. /NEUMAN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.