811
FXUS63 KPAH 160811
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
311 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2013
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
Cold front continues to move across the CWFA. Light showers / rain
mainly south of a KOWB-KPAH-KPOF line moving ENE. A gradual
diminishing trend will continue as the front presses east and
drier air works in across the region. So mainly dry today with
light rain chances ending early east of the KY Lakes area. Second
sharp mid level trof will move across the Plains late tonight
reaching the Great Lakes region by midday Thursday. Still looks
like a split in slim chance PoPs, with slightly higher values over
our northern and southeast counties. Will keep PoPs slight or low
chance for late tonight into early Thursday morning, with dry
weather returning by Thursday afternoon. Expect dry weather
Thursday night and Friday. Our next chance of showers will come
Friday night as another mid level trof swings across the nation's
mid section. Temps will be a blend of MOS and gridded model
output.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
A little better agreement with the latest model runs...however still
no more than medium confidence in solution.
The lower available moisture is now evident in the latest ECMWF than
previous runs. The latest GFS does not have the extreme dry bias it
previously indicated. So they are much improved with that parameter.
The main difference is the late in the forecast or early next week
the ECMWF is actually drier than the GFS soundings which a very rare
thing to observe. The models are hinting at a possible pop next
Tuesday but flip flop on adequate moisture for precip. For now the
chance is so low will not include but may have to introduce some
later if stronger continuity warrants intro. Otherwise the northwest
flow Saturday shifts to more zonal flow over the weekend in response
to an upper level low amplifying over the great lakes region. Both
the GFS and ECMWF agree that the 1000-500mb thickness depicts the
540dam line bisecting the area by mid week next week. Thus
temperatures will at or below normal for the extended and possibly
below normal mid to late next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
Front was along a line from just east of KEVV to KPAH moving east.
Actually seeing some brief gusts immediately behind the front in
the 13-23kt range. This should be brief. But NW winds will
continue for the rest of the night with gradually improving cigs
as drier air works into the region. Winds will veer a bit more to
the north later today into tonight, but remain light. Mostly mid
clouds later tonight.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$