375
FXUS64 KOUN 131128
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
628 AM CDT TUE AUG 13 2013
.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECT AT LEAST MVFR TO APPLY OVER
MOST TERMINALS UNTIL PERHAPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. GAG AND WWR WILL HAVE THE BEST FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH
TODAY WITH ONLY BRIEF MVFR A POSSIBILITY EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR TSRA THERE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH REGARDING THE PREVIOUS
THOUGH SO WILL ONLY INCLUDE PROB30S FOR NOW. MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED FROM AROUND 09-12Z TOMORROW BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT TUE AUG 13 2013/
DISCUSSION...
MOIST CONVECTION HAS INCREASED ALONG THE 925 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE NAM12 AND RUC13 ARE DEPICTING THIS VERY
WELL...AND INDICATE THE BEST WAA WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOW THROUGH
ABOUT 12Z BEFORE THE FRONT BEGINS TO NUDGE SOUTHWARD. SLOW MOVING
STORMS ALONG THIS ZONE...TRAINING...AND VERY HIGH PWATS (OUN 00Z
1.92 IN) WILL SUPPORT HIGH RAINFALL RATES THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
OUT OF KS WILL MOST LIKELY RESULT IN REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN OK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND PERHAPS EVEN W N TX
NEAR THE BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL EXTEND FFA
SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OK WHERE SOME LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL ALREADY OCCURRED YESTERDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD WITH THE BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED
MORNING. WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO THE MET GUIDANCE FOR TODAY
CONSIDERING PERSISTENT STRATUS AND PRECIP CHCS THROUGH THE DAY.
SOME PARTS OF THE OKC METRO MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 70S.
A SFC RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FA FROM THE NE WED BEHIND THE
FRONT KEEPING TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
ADDITIONAL SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING OVER THE PLAINS. POPS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS ONE SUCH WAVE TRAVERSES THE
REGION. AN EVEN MORE SIGNFICANT MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
ANTICIPATED BY FRIDAY SO DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS TO AT LEAST CHC.
OVERALL...EXPECT AN UNUSUALLY COOL AND MOIST FORECAST THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD AS NORTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WEST OF THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 81 69 83 67 / 80 40 20 10
HOBART OK 84 69 86 68 / 70 40 30 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 96 73 89 70 / 50 60 40 20
GAGE OK 80 65 82 64 / 60 40 20 20
PONCA CITY OK 82 66 82 64 / 50 40 20 10
DURANT OK 90 73 87 67 / 70 60 50 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OKZ004>032-040>043-
047-048.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
02/03/03