739
FXUS66 KOTX 161120
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
420 AM PDT Wed Oct 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak weather disturbance will pass through the region today
bringing a chance of showers mainly in the morning to the northern
portion of Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. After this wave
moves out this afternoon...dry and mild conditions with some
patchy morning fog will persist through next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...A short lived interregnum in the quiet
autumn weather pattern will occur today as a weak short wave
dragging an equally weak surface cold front tracks through the area
from northwest to southeast. While dynamic support with this wave
is weak...early morning radar suggest a few showers have indeed
developed along this front...with Omak reporting a trace of rain
as it passed earlier last evening. It is expected that this wave
may generate a few light showers mainly north of a line from
Republic to St. Maries this morning...with the potential for
sprinkles over the northern basin zones. By afternoon it will be
out of the region with just a ghost of a chance of a few
afternoon showers over the Idaho Panhandle mountains. The only
other weather of note resulting from this front will be some
breezy winds down the Okanogan Valley today and breaking into the
deep basin/Waterville Plateau this afternoon and evening as some
post frontal dry air filters into the basin from Canada. The front
is weak enough that temperatures will not decrease noticeably over
yesterday's readings...with higher starting temperatures this
morning as a result of more overnight cloud cover.
By this evening and through Thursday the strong offshore upper
ridge will re-establish dominance over the region for dry and
increasingly clear conditions tonight through Thursday...with
temperatures remaining seasonably normal for mid October. /Fugazzi
Thursday night through Tuesday: Dry, mild conditions dominate.
Through the period models hold a ridge along or just off the
Pacific Coast. Occasional shortwave disturbances slip by northeast
WA/north ID in the northwest flow, around Saturday and Monday.
How closely they pass is less agreed upon. Either way moisture
and instability don't appear deep enough to bring an appreciable
precipitation threat. Expect occasional middle and high clouds
especially between Friday and Saturday. There will be a threat of
late night/early morning fog and low clouds in the typical valleys
locations. On nights with the most efficient radiational cooling
(lightest winds and least cloud cover) I'd expect this to be more
prevalent. As for temperatures, all guidance indicates a warming
trend at 850mbs. Surface temperatures may be limited from reaching
their full potential due to limited mixing with the ridge and any
energy expended in mixing out any possible fog. Yet afternoon highs
are expected to be slightly above normal. /J. Cote'
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFs...A weak cold front sweeping down from the north will
promote mid level altocumulus and VFR stratocumulus ceilings over
the TAF sites through 16z-18z at KEAT and KMWH...and through 20z-
22z over the eastern TAF sites. Widely scattered VFR ceiling -SHRA
is also possible in the KGEG vicinity TAF sites through 18Z today.
The front will move east and out of the region this afternoon and
a strong upper level ridge will begin to build over the region
promoting clearing skies and VFR conditions through 12Z Thursday
at all TAF sites. /MJF
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 57 35 58 34 59 33 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur d'Alene 57 33 57 32 59 32 / 30 10 0 0 0 0
Pullman 57 32 58 34 60 34 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 62 37 62 36 64 37 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
Colville 59 33 61 32 62 32 / 30 0 0 0 0 0
Sandpoint 54 31 57 28 58 28 / 30 10 0 0 0 0
Kellogg 53 34 54 33 55 34 / 30 10 0 0 0 0
Moses Lake 64 33 65 33 65 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 63 39 65 38 66 37 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 62 36 65 32 66 33 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$