Area Forecast Discussion


602 
FXUS61 KOKX 161423
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1023 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAKENING COLD FRONT LATE TODAY AND 
TONIGHT. THE FRONT THEN STALLS NEAR THE REGION THURSDAY. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO
FOLLOW ON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAK ONE MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RETREATS TO THE EAST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY.
FORECAST MOSTLY ON TRACK SO FAR. MINOR UPDATES TO CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPS FOR THE NEXT HOUR. ADDITIONALLY...INCLUDED PATCHY DRIZZLE
LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTCHESTER AND PUTNAM COUNTIES AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE 290K PLANE SHIFTS NORTHWARD AND
INTERACTS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
OVERALL...EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN TODAY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
PARTIAL SUNSHINE AT TIMES.
OBVIOUSLY THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER WILL IN TURN IMPACT HIGH 
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE AREA WARM SECTORED AND WEAK WAA 
OCCURRING...SHOULD BE ANOTHER MILD DAY. 65 TO 70 FOR HIGHS
EXPECTED PER MOS AND MIXING DOWN FROM AROUND 950 HPA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
FIRST SHORTWAVE PIVOTS WELL TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER 
SHORTWAVE THAT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE THURSDAY.
AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BUT WEAKENS AS IT SLOWS UP 
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. FORCING REMAINS QUITE WEAK...ESPECIALLY IN THE 
LOWER LEVELS...AND IN FACT MID LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH...WITH NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND
SUBSEQUENT SUBSIDENCE CLOSER TO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS PER LATEST
NAM/GFS AND ECMWF.
OVERALL EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS...WITH PERHAPS A PASSING SHOWER ACROSS 
THE INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH 
SOME LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOPING. THEN SKIES SHOULD CLEAR DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE PASSING SHORTWAVE WELL TO THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BRIEFLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.
THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE. CLOUDS AND ONSHORE 
FLOW WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 TONIGHT. THEN TEMPS 
WARM CLOSE TO 70...WITH SEVERAL SPOTS WARMING INTO THE 70S AWAY FROM 
THE WATER IN SW FLOW. MOS FOLLOWED AND A BLEND USED.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH ASSOCIATED POSITIVE POTENTIAL 
VORTICITY ANOMALY AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL 
U.S. WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW 
PRESSURE WAVE WILL HAVE THE STRONGEST FORCING WITHIN THE LONG TERM 
PERIOD AND AS A RESULT...HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS. AGAIN...LIKE 
SYSTEMS OF LATE...A GREATER FRACTION OF THE RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO 
BE NORTH AND WEST OF NEW YORK CITY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WERE 3/4 MET 
AND 1/4 MAV...WEIGHED MORE HEAVILY TOWARDS THE WARMER MOS.
THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EXITS FRIDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS ENDING 
FROM WEST TO EAST. RELATIVELY STRONGER NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION 
IS SHOWN BEHIND THE WAVE WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO 
BUILD IN...PROMOTING CLEARING SKIES. ADIABATIC WARMING FROM MIXING 
DOWN BETWEEN 850MB AND 900MB WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMER DAY WITH A 
SURFACE FLOW OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM 
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
A VAST DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL BE EVIDENT AS FRIDAY NIGHT 
ARRIVES AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DIRECTLY OVER THE 
REGION...MAKING FOR LIGHT WINDS WITH THE CONTINUED CLEARING SKIES. A 
BLEND OF GMOS AND MEX GUIDANCE WAS USED TO PORTRAY A WIDER ARRAY OF 
LOW TEMPS TO DISTINGUISH THE AREAS WHICH WILL RADIATIVELY COOL MORE 
IN THE RURAL AND INTERIOR SECTIONS.
THE TREND THEREAFTER WITH TEMPERATURE WILL BE SLOWLY LOWERING ON 
AVERAGE WITH REGARDS TO DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE 
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY WITH MORE OF A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW. 
CLOUDS INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE 
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT. A REPETITIVE 
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOLLOWS TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH 
BUILDS IN SUNDAY MORNING BUT QUICKLY MOVES OFFSHORE TO GIVE WAY TO 
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS ONE WILL JUST RESULT IN 
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. EACH OF 
THESE SYSTEM WILL BE USHERING IN PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR BEHIND IT.
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. LOWS AT 
NIGHT WILL NOT CHANGE THAT MUCH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG 
TERM...STAYING MAINLY WITHIN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S CLOSER TO NEW YORK 
CITY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. 
BKN-OVC015-020 MVFR CIGS ARE PREVALENT THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA...AND WITH HIGHER CLOUDS INTERVENING IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME BEFORE LOW LEVEL HEATING/MIXING CAN SCOUR THEM OUT...SO HAVE
AMENDED MOST SITES TO HOLD ONTO THESE LOWER CONDS UNTIL MIDDAY.
AT ANY RATE IFR CIGS APPEAR UNLIKELY. 
LIGHT NE FLOW WILL VEER E BY MIDDAY...AND THEN BECOME SE-S 5-10 KT
THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS COULD IMPROVE TO BKN-OVC025 LATE THIS
MORNING BEFORE SCATTERING. 
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS COULD IMPROVE TO BKN-OVC025 LATE THIS
MORNING BEFORE SCATTERING. 
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS COULD IMPROVE TO BKN-OVC025 LATE THIS
MORNING BEFORE SCATTERING. 
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS COULD IMPROVE TO BKN-OVC025 LATE THIS
MORNING BEFORE SCATTERING. 
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS COULD IMPROVE TO BKN-OVC025 BEFORE
SCATTERING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. 
 
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CONDS COULD VARY BETWEEN SCT020-BKN020 
THIS MORNING. 
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THU THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU-FRI MORNING...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN SCT SHOWERS.
.FRI AFTERNOON-SUNDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE BEEN HOVERING RIGHT AROUND 5 FT DUE TO AN EAST
SWELL...BUT AN OVERALL SUBSIDING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED FOR THE PAST FEW
HOURS. WILL LEAVE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS POSTED FOR THE DURATION
OF THE MORNING. NOT ANTICIPATING THE NEED TO EXTEND IT FURTHER IN
TIME AS WINDS DIMINISH AND TURN BRIEFLY TO THE N BEFORE SHIFTING S
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SUB SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AS WINDS TURN TOWARD THE 
SW AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
SHELTERED WATERS REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL WITH REGARD TO WINDS AND 
SEAS THROUGH THURSDAY.
THURSDAY EVENING STARTS WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS WITH A HIGHER CHANCE 
OF SCA SEAS AT LEAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE LOW 
PRESSURE WAVE. THE WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR GUSTS BUT A FEW 25KT 
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SUB SCA CONDITIONS THEREAFTER UNTIL LATE 
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN NEXT CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE...MAINLY ON 
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
AROUND A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST TO FALL WITH THE 
LOW PRESSURE WAVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGHEST TOTALS 
WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF NEW YORK CITY. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER 
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
DUE TO INTERFERENCE ISSUES WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD EMERGENCY
BROADCAST CHANNEL...THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER
RADIO STATION KWO35 REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IS WORKING WITH SEVERAL U.S. GOVERNMENT AGENCIES TO
ISOLATE AND RESOLVE THIS TECHNICAL PROBLEM.
DURING THIS TIME...THE TRANSMITTER MAY BE RETURNED TO SERVICE
INTERMITTENTLY FOR USE OF THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO
DURING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATIONS...FOR ROUTINE
WEEKLY TESTS OF THE WARNING SYSTEM...AND TO DETERMINE IF THE
INTERFERENCE ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY 
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/PW
NEAR TERM...JC/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...BC/GOODMAN
MARINE...JC/JM/PW
HYDROLOGY...JM/PW
EQUIPMENT...