177
FXUS64 KOHX 131130
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
630 AM CDT TUE AUG 13 2013
.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SOME IFR CIGS THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY 17Z. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY WITH SCT TSRA...BUT COVERAGE NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS ATTM. BY TONIGHT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN
WITH N WINDS 5-8KT. ANY CIGS TONIGHT WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS. SOME
LATE NIGHT MVFR BR POSSIBLE AT CSV.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT TUE AUG 13 2013/
DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
THE EARLIER CONVECTION HAS LIFTED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. NVA AND NEG
UPPER DIVERGENCE IS NOW IN PLACE...AND THUS RADAR IS VIRTUALLY
PRECIP FREE RIGHT NOW.
FOR TODAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND
THROUGH THE MID STATE. STILL LOOKING AT SOME CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE
PARAMETERS AND GRAPHICS THROUGH 18Z...ESPECIALLY EAST AND SOUTH.
WILL THEREFORE INCLUDE LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS BUT DRY
AIR WILL WIN OUT ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCES FOR ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL LOOK MINIMAL AND WILL GO AHEAD
AND CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM THROUGH THURSDAY IS LOOKING DRY. THE
FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH TODAY WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH AND
THUS...PRECIPITATION WONT BE THAT FAR SOUTH OF THE MID STATE.
BUT...NO POPS WILL BE INCLUDED FOR OUR AREA FOR NOW. IN
FACT...DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR WED AND THU
AFTERNOONS. QUITE A CHANGE FROM THE ODIOUSLY APPALLING SWAMP
LADEN MARSH-LIKE HUMIDITY RIDDEN CONDITIONS WE HAVE BEEN EXPOSED
TO OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. SO...GET OUT AND ENJOY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SHOULD SEE
UPPER 50S FOR WED NT...LOW TO MID 50S PLATEAU AND NW. RECORD LOW FOR
BNA ON WED IS 53F. PROBABLY LOOKING AT A SWING AND A MISS ON THAT
ONE...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE.
IN THE EXT FCST...BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND A DRY NW FLOW WILL MODIFY
AND A SHARPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP. WITH THE AXIS SETTING UP WEST OF
TN...MOISTURE WILL RETURN ALONG WITH A RETURNING CHANCE OF
CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL ALSO BE ON THE REBOUND AS WE GO FROM 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...TO A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL BY
MONDAY.
21
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$