000
FXUS64 KOHX 162004
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
304 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SURFACE OBS AND LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATE
COLD FRONT IS NOW LOCATED FROM WAYNESBORO TO NORTH OF
GALLATIN...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY AND MID 60S TO LOW 70S OUT AHEAD. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
A SLOW PROGRESSION EASTWARD TONIGHT AND SHOULD EXIT THE CWA BY
12Z. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL EJECT OUT INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN TO ALL ZONES
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST MUCH OF THIS EVENING
MAY BE DRY AFTER CURRENT PRECIP DEPARTS TO THE EAST...WITH NEXT
ROUND ARRIVING NEAR/AFTER 06Z. THIS SECOND ROUND SHOULD ALSO
DEPART RAPIDLY EASTWARD TOMORROW MORNING AS STRONG DRY AIR
INTRUSION ALOFT PUNCHES ACROSS THE REGION. WILL SHOW LIKELY POPS
ON THE PLATEAU FOR TONIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE...DECREASING QUICKLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SECOND ROUND SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE
LIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW ONE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED. LOW
TEMPS FOR TONIGHT REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE TO CLOUDS/PRECIP
AND CLEARING LINE CURRENTLY GETTING CLOSE TO NORTHWEST
BORDER...BUT LOW TO MID 50S SEEM MOST REASONABLE WHICH IS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE MOS.
AFTER TOMORROW...GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A PREVAILING SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A LARGE AND DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
EAST...STRONG RIDGE IN THE WEST...AND ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET
ALONG THE GULF COAST. SUCH A PATTERN WOULD TYPICALLY SUGGEST
FREQUENT COLD FRONTAL INTRUSIONS WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND THAT IS WHAT IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. NEXT
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH A
MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOWN BY GFS/ECMWF ON TUESDAY.
BOTH FRONTS LOOK TO HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND WILL
NOT SHOW ANY POPS. TEMPS WERE KEPT GENERALLY IN THE BALLPARK OF
THE 12Z MEX MOS...ALTHOUGH TEMPS COULD BE QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN
CURRENTLY SHOWN IN FORECAST BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK
BASED ON THE 12Z MODEL RUNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 54 66 44 70 / 40 30 05 0
CLARKSVILLE 50 65 42 69 / 30 30 05 0
CROSSVILLE 55 63 41 65 / 60 50 05 0
COLUMBIA 55 67 44 70 / 40 20 05 0
LAWRENCEBURG 55 68 43 69 / 50 20 05 0
WAVERLY 51 65 42 69 / 30 20 05 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHAMBURGER