835
FXUS66 KMTR 130604
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1104 PM PDT MON AUG 12 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEEP MARINE LAYER THE PAST FEW DAYS IS NOW OFF
THE WASHINGTON COAST AND PULLING FURTHER NORTH. AS A RESULT THE
MARINE LAYER COMPRESSED TODAY AND IS NOW DOWN TO NEAR 1000 FEET.
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY 1-6 DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE DISTRICT
TODAY WITH THE GREATEST WARMING FROM THE SFO BAY AREA SOUTH.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN OVER THE INTERIOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS SHIFTS WESTWARD
INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE CONFINED
MORE TO THE COAST AND LOCALLY AROUND SFO BAY.
THINGS WILL COOL OFF SLIGHTLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FRIDAY WILL BE THE
COOLEST DAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND.
FROM PREVIOUS EXTENDED...WEEKEND MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT
WITH SEVERAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HOLDING TROF ENERGY BACK ALONG
THE COAST WHILE ECMWF AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH FEATURE AND BUILDING WEST COAST RIDGE.
CLIMATOLOGY WOULD FAVOR SOME TROF ENERGY LINGERING ALONG THE
COAST...BUT PATTERN SUPPORTS OVERALL RIDGING AND ANOTHER WARMING
TREND FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. WOULD ANTICIPATE COASTAL AREAS TO
REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 PM PDT MONDAY...CIGS ARE SLOWLY RETURNING
TO AREA TERMINALS THIS EVENING. THE MARINE LAYER IS HOLDING
STEADY AROUND 1200 FEET. THE ONSHORE GRADIENT REMAINS SLIGHTLY
WEAKER WHILE THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN 24
HOURS AGO. CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED AROUND 17Z-18Z TUESDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT THEN WILL INCREASE A BIT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VICINITY OF KSFO...CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER KOAK UNTIL 18Z
TUESDAY MORNING WHILE KSFO SEES TEMPO CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z
TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED AROUND 18Z TUESDAY MORNING.
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION/MARINE: CW
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