051
FXUS65 KMSO 122032
AFDMSO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
232 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2013
...Near Record Maximum Temperatures on Thursday...
.DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have begun to form across southwest
Montana/Lemhi Co. Idaho as well as along the Continental Divide
this afternoon. The coverage of storms is expected to increase through
the evening. Potential for gusty winds, heavy rain and lightning
will be the main threats, although a few storms could strengthen
enough to produce some small hail as well. The greatest likelihood
of strong storms will again be across northwest Montana this
evening. Tuesday will yet again bring a chance of thunderstorms.
The main focus appears to be more for western Montana. Smoke will
continue to infiltrate into southwest Montana as southwest flow
aloft brings smoke from southwest Idaho into the region.
A ridge of high pressure will build back over the Northern Rockies
for the latter part of the week. This ridge of high pressure will
draw in a very warm airmass, which could cause temperatures to
approach and break record temperatures. The smoke associated with
the large fires across central Idaho is anticipated to be drawn up
into Lemhi county and southern Bitterroot valley into the Butte
region.
The models are indicating that the ridge will be knocked down on
Saturday by a weak cold front. This front will cause gusty
westerly winds and a slight cooling of airmass. This breaking down
of the ridge could cause critical fire weather conditions.
Moisture will be fairly limited so shower and thunderstorm
activity should be minimal.
The ridge of high pressure will build back over the region for at
least the first part of nest week causing a warming and drying trend.
&&
.AVIATION...Smoke and thunderstorms will be the main aviation impacts
today. Wildfire smoke has potential to affect any area terminal today,
but KMSO and any small terminals in the Bitterroot Valley or
central Idaho are most likely to have significant impacts.
Thunderstorms have begun to form and are most likely to impact
KBTM and KSMN between 12/2000z and 13/000z. KGPI and KMSO will
have the highest likelihood of a thunderstorms between 12/2300z
and 13/0200z. Thunderstorm activity is expected to decrease after
13/0300z. The main threats with thunderstorms will be gusty winds,
heavy rain, and lightning. Another round of thunderstorms is
anticipated for Tuesday afternoon.
&&
.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING until 8 PM MDT this evening Bitterroot/Sapphire
Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot Region.
ID...RED FLAG WARNING until 8 PM MDT /7 PM PDT/ this evening Eastern
Lemhi County...Southern Clearwater Mountains...Western
Lemhi County.
&&
$$
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