583
FXUS64 KMRX 161926
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
326 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2013
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...A COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TOWARDS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHT
ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IN THE
LATER AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP ARRIVING ON
THE PLATEAU IN THE EARLY EVENING. MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWED
THE FRONT SLOWING DOWN...SO PUSHED TIMING OF POPS BACK FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST ISSUANCES. WITH WEAK INSTABILITIES AND A MOIST
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY FORM OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER WAVE OF GEOSTROPHIC FORCING WILL MAKE ITS WAY UP THE COASTAL
STATES TOWARDS OUR AREA...BRINGING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND
HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THURSDAY. INSTABILITIES AND WINDS FAIRLY
WEAK ON THURSDAY...SO AGAIN ONLY EXPECT PRECIP. THE FRONT WILL EXIT
THE REGION IN THE LATE HOURS THURSDAY. UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY RAIN ON THURSDAY EVENING IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
OVERCAST SKIES WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WITH
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PRESENT IN THE LOW LEVELS AND WEAK
WINDS...EXPECT FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BEHIND THIS FRONT TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THESE PERIODS WILL FIND AN
OVERALL SEMI-PERMANENT SETUP IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WITH A TROUGH IN
EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES...FLANKED BY RIDGES OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS SCENARIO PUTS
OUR AREA INTO A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WITH A FEW DISTURBANCES THAT WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGION.
DISTURBANCE #1 LOOKS TO BE ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS MAINLY
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA...SO KEEPING POPS LOW ON THE EDGES AND
DRY IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE
AROUND MONDAY...AND THEN THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE
AREA TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD WITH A STRONGER FRONT.
WE SHOULD ALSO HAVE SEVERAL WEAK SHOTS OF COOLER AIR THAT WILL GET
US CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THESE DAYS. THERE
WILL BE LITTLE TIME TO RECOVER DEEP/RICH MOISTURE BETWEEN ALL THESE
SYSTEMS...SO NOT ONLY SHOULD THERE BE NO SEVERE WEATHER...BUT WILL
KEEP THE LIMITED PRECIP AS JUST SHOWERS AS WELL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 62 68 46 72 49 / 80 90 10 0 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 59 68 45 69 46 / 60 90 20 0 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 57 64 43 69 46 / 60 80 20 0 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 55 67 42 67 43 / 60 80 20 0 10
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
JW/GM