036
FXUS63 KMQT 130848
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
448 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
QUEBEC INTO NRN ONTARIO RESULTING IN CYCLONIC WNW FLOW THROUGH THE
NRN GREAT LAKES. LITTLE MORE THAN PATCHY MID CLOUDS WERE ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE MORE
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES WERE OBSERVED WITH ANOTHER
SHRTWV JUST UPSTREAM...TO THE N OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRES OVER MANITOBA INTO NW MN WAS BUILDING INTO THE WRN LAKES WITH
NRLY FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO UPPER MICHIGAN.
TODAY...AS THE SHRTWV FROM N OF THE LAKE AND A POCKET OF LOWER 700 MB
TEMPS AROUND -6C...DROPS THROUGH THE CWA...MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME
ISOLD SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY THROUGH W CNTRL UPPER MI. IN ITS WAKE...SUBSIDENCE
AND DRYING WILL BUILD QUICKLY INTO THE AREA...ENDING ANY PCPN BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS THE HIGH BUILD INTO
THE REGION...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS IN THE DRY
AIRMASS(PWAT TO AROUND 0.50 INCH OR 50 PCT OR NORMAL) WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE....INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND WEST. THE TYPICAL COLDER LOCATIONS FROM
CHAMPION AND AMASA TO WATERSMEET...KENTON AND WATERSMEET COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY FROST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013
THE VERY COOL MORNING TEMPS WILL QUICKLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S WEDNESDAY AS THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SINK
TO OUR SSE. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE SFC HIGH LINGERING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND STATES
THROUGH AT LEAST THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
THURSDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPS...IN THE
70S...AS 850MB TEMPS FINALLY RISE INTO THE DOUBLE DIGITS AND...STAY
THERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD.
THERE WILL BE ONLY FEW SYSTEMS OF NOTE OVER THE WEEK...WITH NW FLOW
ALOFT REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE MAIN
500MB LOW WILL BE SPINNING AROUND AND NEAR QUEBEC THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE EJECTING NE IN THE MAIN FLOW AROUND THE STRONGER POLAR LOW. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL ATTEMPT TO ROUND THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES EARLY TO MID WEEK...
SEEING A SFC LOW TRACKING FROM S ALBERT AND SASKATCHEWAN ON FRIDAY
TO S CENTRAL CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE 12/12Z ECMWF IS MUCH
QUICKER TO PUSH THE SFC LOW ACROSS HUDSON BAY OVER THE WEEKEND.
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE TO KEEP ONLY LIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST AS
WARM BUT MAINLY DRY AIR PUSHES IN ON SW WINDS AT THE SFC SATURDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LGT WINDS TNGT AS DRY HI PRES DOMINATES
UPR MI. MORE INSTABILITY CU/SC WL DVLP THIS MRNG AFTER SUNRISE WITH
ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE APRCH OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE...BUT
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE VFR. BEST CHC FOR SOME MVFR CIGS LATER
THIS MRNG INTO THE AFTN WL BE AT SAW WITH MORE FVRBL UPSLOPE AND
GUSTY N WIND.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013
NRLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE ERN PORTIONF OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AS THE
HIGH SINKS TO THE SOUTH WED INTO WED NIGHT WRLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
OTHERWISE...WINDS AOB 15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB