Area Forecast Discussion


688 
FXUS63 KMQT 162223
AFDMQT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
523 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 413 PM EST SAT DEC 16 2017 
WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated confluent wnw mid/upper level 
flow through nrn Ontario and the nrn Great Lakes. light erly flow 
prevailed between high psressure over nrn Ontario and a trough and 
front from the cntrl plains through the srn Great Lakes. Vis loop 
showed a small clear area over cntrl Upper Michigan but with low/mid 
clouds moving in from the west with increasing 280k isentropic lift. 
Tonight, lingering east flow off of Lake Michigan with 850 mb temps 
around -8C may support some light lake effect pcpn. With marginal 
moisture to -10C for ice nuclei, freezing drizzle will also be 
possible from near MNM to ESC. Otherwise, veering winds to srly over 
Lake Superior will keep any pcpn off shore. Favorable radiational 
cooling over the east should allow temps to drop near zero. 
Otherwise, clouds will keep temps mainly in the 10 to 15 range. 
Sunday, there may be some lingering light pcpn east near Lake 
Michigan. Pcpn associated with a shortwav trough moving through nrn 
Ontario, will remain north of the cwa. Even with considerable 
clouds, WAA will push temps into the mid 20 to around 30.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 337 PM EST SAT DEC 16 2017
Monday night through Wednesday afternoon: A broad trough sweeping 
across southern Canada will brush the CWA Monday night into Tuesday. 
Some light snow showers will accompany this trough across mainly the 
northern CWA late Monday evening into early Tuesday morning. Colder 
air aloft that would be sufficient for LES will lag the main trough 
axis, so more prominent LES will hold off until a secondary surface 
trough crosses the west Tuesday afternoon and the east Tuesday 
evening. Though LES will be generally weak early Tuesday, gusty 
W/WNW winds to 45mph across mainly the Keweenaw Peninsula combined 
with a loose snowpack may create intermittent whiteout conditions 
Tuesday into Tuesday evening. The same will likely hold true near 
Lake Superior east of Munising Tuesday afternoon and evening. A 
period of moderate lake effect snow for the W to NW wind snow belts 
is then expected Tuesday night before diminishing from west to east 
on Wednesday.
Wednesday night through Saturday: Though there remains a lot of 
uncertainty in the forecast during the second half of the week, the 
main message is that more active weather with accumulating snow will 
affect at least portions of the western Great Lakes Wednesday night 
through Friday. 
A potent mid-level trough moving onto the NW CONUS Tuesday night 
will become stretched across the central CONUS by Thursday 
afternoon. The extreme positive tilt with the northern portions of 
this trough complicate the forecast across the Upper Great Lakes by 
Wednesday night. Somewhat disorganized lee cyclogenesis in the 
Plains will spread a shield of WAA precip across the region 
Wednesday evening into Thursday. Guidance has been quite 
inconsistent on the placement of the generally narrow swath of 
precip, with the GFS switching from the northern-most solution 
yesterday to a much more open southern track with today's 12Z 
guidance. The GEFS and other long-range guidance only increase 
uncertainty with a wide distribution of solutions. With that said, 
there is a relatively high chance of at least some accumulating snow 
across the CWA with this system Wednesday night into Thursday.
By Friday and Saturday, model disagreements grow substantially, with 
some solutions suggesting chances of an organized system bringing 
accumulating snow across the region as the upper trough receives a 
re-enforcing shot of energy from the north. Again, with significant 
uncertainty this far out, those with holiday travel plans should 
continue to monitor forecast updates.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 523 PM EST SAT DEC 16 2017
MVFR conditions will continue for most of this forecast period at 
all sites as srly low level flow with increasing moisture advection 
develops.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 413 PM EST SAT DEC 16 2017
Southwesterly winds will increase late Monday to 20 to 30 knots 
before veering to northwesterly gales to 35-45 knots late Mon night 
through Tue night. With increasing wave heights, freezing spray is 
possible Tuesday night into Wednesday.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...Kluber
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB