Area Forecast Discussion


705 
FXUS62 KMLB 161323
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
920 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...LOG CLOUDS AND FOG LIFTING/BURNING OFF 
QUICKER THIS MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND 
SOUTHERN GEORGIA WILL PRODUCE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WITH A SEA 
BREEZE COMPONENT ADDED IN THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 
80S AND SOME UPPER 80S LOOKS GOOD DUE TO LESS LOW CLOUD/FOG THIS 
MORNING.
HAVE TO UPDATE TO CLEAN UP THE WORDING FOR THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON 
PERIODS.
PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION
CURRENT-TONIGHT...EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE THE 
MAIN CONCERNS THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THAT ARE AROUND PAST 
SUNRISE WILL VERY SLOWLY BURN OFF PAST MID MORNING. A LIGHT SHOWER 
OR SPRINKLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THIS MORNING AS 
WELL. A LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR 
SPRINKLE WILL EXIST OVER THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. MOST PLACES 
WILL REMAIN DRY. ANY RAINFALL THAT IS RECEIVED WILL REMAIN LIGHT. 
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE 
GOMEX WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE 
FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS ACROSS 
THE AREA WITH A VERY LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. A LIGHT 
ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS 
AFTERNOON. WINDS AGAIN WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM THIS EVENING. MOS 
GUIDANCE HINTS AT PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP MENTION OF THIS 
IN THE FORECAST. 
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RECOVER INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S 
ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF. OVERNIGHT LOWS AGAIN IN THE 60S TO 
NEAR 70 DEGREES. 
THU-FRI...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. AN ONSHORE BREEZE
AT THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON WILL COOL THE COASTAL ZONE WITH HIGHS
AROUND A CATEGORY LOWER THAN INLAND LOCATIONS. HIGHS WILL REACH
NEAR 90 IN SOME SPOTS WELL INLAND WITH LOWER TO MID 80 AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.
WEEKEND...RIDGING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FL IS ADVERTISED TO
WEAKEN LATE IN THE WEEK AND DURING WEEKEND WITH HEIGHT FALLS
UPSTREAM OVER THE MS/TN VALLEYS AND AN ASCD SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING SLOWLY SWD INTO N FL SAT AND SLOWING NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY EARLY SUN. BREAKDOWN OF RIDGING AND HIGHER MOISTURE
POOLING...ESP NORTH WILL LEAD TO MENTIONABLE RAIN CHCS...ESP WHEN
AIDED BY SOME SFC HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. BEST RAIN
CHC DEVELOPS DURING SUNDAY WHERE 25 TO 30 PERCENT COVERAGE OF SHRA
IS EXPECTED.
EXTENDED...NEXT WEEKS PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOW GRADUAL REDEVELOPMENT
OF EAST COAST RIDGING WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER THE OH
VALLEY MONDAY REPOSITIONING OVER THE MID ATLC SEABOARD TUE THEN
MOVING OFFSHORE TOWARD MIDWEEK. VEERING LL WINDS WL KEEP SOME
DEGREE OF MARINE SOURCE MOISTURE IN THE AREA...HOWEVER INSTABILITY
AND LIFTING MECHANISMS APPEAR LIMITED ATTM. RAIN CHCS NO HIGHER
THAN 15 TO 20 PERCENT EARLY TO MIDWEEK WITH TEMPS AT TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION..
VFR AFTER 15Z. MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES DUE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AS WIND 
GO LIGHT TO CALM CEILINGS AFTER 17/08Z.
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS MORNING OVER MUCH OF ECFL. HOW FAR SOUTH AND
EAST FROM WCFL THE LOW CLOUDS EXPAND WILL REMAIN TRICKY. LOWER
VSBYS LIKELY SOUTH OF KMCO WHERE CLOUD COVER IS LESS THICK. LOW
CLOUDS/VSBYS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE PAST MID MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND UPDATE TAFS ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.MARINE...
CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...NOAA BUOYS 009 AND 012 WERE RECORDING WINDS 
AROUND 10 KNOTS AND 4 TO 6 FOOT SEAS COMPOSED MAINLY OF A 5 FOOT 
LONG PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELL. THE TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS 4 AND 6 NM OFF 
THE BEACH WERE RECORDING 2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS AGAIN COMPOSED OF A LONG 
PERIOD 2 FOOT NORTHEAST SWELL.
WEAK LOW EAST OF SAINT AUGUSTINE INFLUENCING WINDS BY MAKING THEM 
NORTHWEST TO NORTH THIS MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BECOME ONSHORE DURING 
THE AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES WESTWARD TO 
LAND. THE AFTERNOON FORECASTS OF 3 TO 4 FOOT SEAS AND ONSHORE WINDS 
LOOKS GOOD.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE PLANNED FOR THE MORNING MARINE FORECAST UPDATE.
PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE 
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH A VERY LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN 
PLACE. A LIGHT OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT OR LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THIS 
MORNING WILL BECOME NE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS MAINLY BELOW 10 
KTS. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AGAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SEAS 
REMAIN COMPRISED OF A 9-10 SEC GROUNDSWELL...WHICH CONTINUES AT 
ABOUT 3-4 FT AWAY FROM THE COAST AND 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE. 
WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS FORECAST INTO THE END OF THE WEEK...A
SWELL COMPONENT APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY WAVE FEATURE WITH SOME
LONG PERIOD SWELLS CONTINUING WAVE HGHTS OF 3 TO 4 FT OVER THE
OUTER WATERS AND 2 TO 3 FT CLOSER TO THE COAST. DECAYING SWELL
WILL LEAD TO HGHTS NO GREATER THAN 3 FT INTO THE WEEKEND AND
AROUND 2 FT NEARSHORE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
IMPACT WX...VOLKMER
FORECASTS...WIMMER