733
FXUS62 KMLB 130047
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
847 PM EDT MON AUG 12 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WAS
BISECTING CENTRAL FLORIDA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGE LOOP WAS
SHOWING A POCKET OF DRIER AIR MOVING OVERHEAD THE NORTH HALF OF
CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE WEST PALM BEACH AIRPORT TERMINAL DOPPLER
WEATHER RADAR (TDWR) WAS DETECTING CONVERGENT LINES OF SHOWERS EAST
OF GRAND BAHAMA AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS MOVING TOWARD THE
COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTH. THE SURFACE HIGH IS NOT FORECAST TO
MOVE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP CONVERGENT SHOWERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE EVENING UPDATE WILL LIKELY LOWER WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR AS
OBSERVED LAST NIGHT AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA.
PREVIOUS ZONE DISCUSSION
TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHES OUT AND WEAKENS OVER THE STATE
AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA
DURING THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO A FRONT DROPPING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR
TOMORROW...WITH A SLOWER INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE AND A FEW STORMS
POSSIBLY TRACKING BACK FROM LAKE INTO VOLUSIA COUNTY LATE IN THE
DAY. SEA BREEZES SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS INLAND FROM THE COAST WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE ACROSS LAKE COUNTY. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 90S INLAND
AND AROUND 90 AT THE COAST UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
WED-THURS...A BREAK IN THE DRY STABLE PATTERN AL OCCUR AT MIDWEEK AS
OVERHEAD HIGH PRESS WEAKENS FURTHER AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
MS VALLEY EXERTS SOME INFLUENCE SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FL
PENINSULA AND GULF COAST. ADDITIONALLY A EASTERLY WAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GULF WILL HELP MOISTEN UP SOUTHERN AREAS
AS THE WAVE AXIS TRANSITS THE FL STRAITS INTO THE SRN GULF LATE WED
AND INTO THU. HAVE INDICATED A STEADY INCREASE IN POPS FROM MNLY
ISOLD WED INTO THE MORE SEASONAL SCT RANGE BY THU AFTN.
FRI-SAT...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STATIONARY WAVEFORM ASCD WITH
SLOW MOVING ELY WAVE OVER THE GULF REGION AS WELL AS NEARLY
STATIONARY UPR WAVE OVER THE N GULF REGION AND SUPPRESSED ATLC RIDGE
WL LEAD TO SCT RAIN CHCS EACH DAY WITH SLY COMPONENT FLOW AND
DIURNAL STORMS. LOW CONFIDENCE ATTM WRT SFC FEATURES HOWEVER
ADVERTISED HIGHER MOISTURE AND SUPPRESSED RIDGE SHOULD LEAD TO AT
LEAST SEASONAL CHCS FOR PRECIP TO ROUND OUT THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF AIRPORTS AT THE COAST FROM
SEBASTIAN SOUTH ESPECIALLY FORT PIERCE WHERE MVFR FOG AND
CEILINGS MAY OCCUR BETWEEN 13/08Z AND 13/11Z VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...BUOYS WERE RECORDING SOUTHEAST WINDS 8 TO 10
KNOTS AND 1 TO 3 FOOT SEAS COMPOSED PRIMARILY OF A 1 TO 2 FOOT LONG
PERIOD EAST SOUTHEAST SWELL. THE CONVERGENT LINES OF SHOWERS
IMPACTING THE COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTH WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
TONIGHT-TUESDAY...WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BUT WILL SEE EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS 5-10KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
EXPANDS. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FROM THE CAPE
NORTHWARDS AS RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SETTLES FURTHER SOUTH INTO
TUESDAY...TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 10-15KT IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO
A COMBINATION OF THE SEA BREEZE AND STRENGTHENING GRADIENT ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE AROUND 2-3
FEET WITH DOMINANT PERIODS 9 SEC.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...RIDGE AXIS SLIDES INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE THROUGH LATE WEEK AS A FRONTAL TROUGH SETTLES INTO N FLORIDA.
TIGHTER GRADIENT WILL MEAN AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS...WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW 10-15KTS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWEST NORTH
OF THE CAPE AND SOUTHEAST OFFSHORE THE TREASURE COAST. SEAS 2 TO 3
FEET...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF 4 FT SEAS OVER THE OUTERMOST WATERS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS SETTLES FURTHER SOUTH. WILL
ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK TO OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS BY THURSDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR AUGUST 12TH...
DAYTONA BEACH....98...2006
ORLANDO..........98...1938, 1929
MELBOURNE........98...1980
VERO BEACH.......98...2006, 1955
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
IMPACT WX.....SHARP
FORECASTS.....WIMMER
PUBLIC DESK...BOWEN