483
FXUS62 KMHX 161830
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
230 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
THURSDAY THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST NEAR THE COAST SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM WED...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE GULF COAST REGION. LOW PRESSURE SHOULD SLOWLY
LIFT NNE OVERNIGHT AS FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM
THE WEST. FINALLY EXPECT TO SEE SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY OVERNIGHT. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL
BECOME CALM FOR INLAND AREAS TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR DECOUPLING TO
OCCUR AND GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
DENSE FOG DEVELOPING...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS CLOUDS
MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WED...INCREASING MOISTURE EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME S/SW WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 70S/80
DEGREES...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER. EXPECT A DRY DAY
WITH PRECIP HOLDING OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY MORE
SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED THU WITH HIGHER BASED CLOUDS AND MORE BREAKS THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION THU NIGHT
AND MOVE OFF THE CST FRI. MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT
AND WILL CONT LOW CHC POPS AREA WIDE THU NIGHT WITH SMALL POP IMD
CST FRI. WEAK WAVE WILL LIFT ALONG FRONT SAT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT NIGHT. EXPECT SCT SHRA OVER THE REGION
SAT AND SAT NIGHT WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM W TO E SUNDAY. HIGH PRES
AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE W LATER SUN THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TIMING OF NEXT FRONT UNCERTAIN AND WILL GO SIMILAR TO HPC
WITH SLIGHT POPS WED.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY LOW TO MID 70S...SUNDAY INTO MON LOOK COOLEST WITH HIGHS IN
60S SOME SPOTS AND LOWS INLAND DROPPING INTO THE UPR 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...
AS OF 230 PM WED...CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO MVFR/VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO WLY THIS
EVENING BRINGING LOW LEVEL DRYING AND LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE
LESS PREVALENT TONIGHT...HOWEVER EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO
ADVECT INTO THE REGION UNDER SWLY FLOW ALOFT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW DENSE FOG AT THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS
EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE...HOWEVER SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS CLOUDS
MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CONDITIONS
MVFR RIGHT NOW...BUT THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CONDITIONS BTWN 06-12Z...WITH LIKELY BEST CHANCE AT PGV.
CONDITIONS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY LATE THU MORNING WITH INCREASING
SWLY FLOW.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THU NIGHT WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SPOTTY LIGHT SHRA...WITH SW TO W WINDS DONT
THINK WILL HAVE FOG BUT MAY HAVE SOME CIGS DROP TO MVFR RANGE.
MAINLY VFR FRI WITH DEEPER MOISTURE E OF TAF SITES. WEAK WAVE
LIFTING ALONG FRONT NEAR CST WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SHRA SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT WITH SOME REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES EXPECTED. STRONGER
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W LATER SUN INTO MON WITH DRIER
AIR AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WED...LATEST OBS SHOW N/NE WINDS 10-15KT AND SEAS
3-5FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE AND 2-4FT SOUTH. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS NNE. FLOW WILL SLOWLY BACK OVERNIGHT INTO THU...AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE W...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE S/SWLY
THU WITH SEAS 2-4FT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MON/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LATE THU NIGHT AND
EARLY FRI. SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS THU EVENING WILL BECOME WNW FRI
MORNING THEN N/NE DURING THE DAY FRI. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL CROSS
THE THE N FRI NIGHT WITH MAINLY NE WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS. WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRES WILL LIFT NE NEAR CST EARLY SAT WITH COLD FRONT
APPROACH FROM THE W LATE. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT ENE WINDS EARLY
BECOMING MORE SRLY LATE. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SAT NIGHT WITH
STRONGER HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE W SUNDAY AND MON. WINDS
WILL CONT MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE SUN AND MON...POSS
BRIEF PD OF 15 TO 20 FOLLOWING FRONT EARLY SUNDAY.
SEAS WILL CONT IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY
SAT...THEN BE MAINLY 2 TO 3 FT LATER SAT THRU MON.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...CQD/RF
MARINE...CQD/RF