Supression Forecast
999
FNUS72 KMFL 161106
FWSMFL
SPOT FORECAST FOR HAPPY SMILE RX...FLORIDA FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
706 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2013
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0830 EDT ON OCTOBER 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
.DISCUSSION...
A VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
MORNING WITH SOME PATCHY SHALLOW FOG THAT WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. THE LIGHT WIND FIELD WILL ALLOW FOR A SEA BREEZE TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND IT
WILL STRUGGLE TO PUSH INLAND VERY FAR. IT COULD REACH THE BURN
SITE BY MID AFTERNOON BUT IF IT DOES THIS WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND
THE WIND WILL VEER BACK TO A LIGHT NORTHEAST DIRECTION. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE CHANCES
ARE VERY SMALL AT LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.
.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 90.
MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 45 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700-3100 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4100-4500 FT
AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 5 TO 8 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....7...INCREASING TO 28 LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN
INCREASING TO 50 EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO 40 LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............3.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
TIME (EDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM
SKY (%).........12 40 40 40 40 40
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............76 84 89 90 89 85
RH..............84 65 50 45 50 58
20 FT WIND......NE 2 NE 3 NE 3 NE 5 N 5 N 4
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 10 10 10
MIX HGT (FT)....1700 3100 3100 4500 4500 4100
MIXNG WIND......NE 5 NE 6 NE 6 N 8 N 8 N 7
DISPERSION IDX..7 28 28 50 50 40
LVORI...........4 4 2 1 1 1
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR. PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 68.
MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 100 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING EAST 0 TO 1 MPH
IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
DISPERSION INDEX....4.
LVORI...............7.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. PATCHY FOG
EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 91.
MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 45 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 6 MPH EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING WEST 5 TO 6
MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800-3400 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3800-5000 FT
AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 0 MPH...BECOMING WEST AROUND 9 MPH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....11...INCREASING TO 42.
LVORI...............4.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
$$
FORECASTER...BRABANDER
REQUESTED BY...JEFF CUMMINGS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20131016.HAPPY.01/MFL