209
FXUS62 KMFL 161257
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
857 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2013
.UPDATE...
DO NOT PLAN TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES OTHER THAN TO ADD SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE WITH PWAT JUST OVER AN INCH AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE CAP WITH THE BASE AT 6-8K FEET. HOWEVER, THERE HAVE
BEEN ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT HAVE TEASING THE
BROWARD COUNTY COAST WITH AN EFFORT TO MOVE ONSHORE WITH THE
DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE. THE HRRR ALSO SHOWS
A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING INLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOW
LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW. THESE WILL BE VERY LOW TOPPED SO RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE SMALL AREA COVERAGE AND MOSTLY JUST OVER A TRACE
ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE, THE TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2013/
..CONTINUED MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND...
SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS MOVES SLOWLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FLORIDA KEYS. THIS WILL KEEP A NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY INTO FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA. THERE COULD BE ONE OR TWO LIGHT SHOWERS THAT AFFECT
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS TODAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT THE SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE FAR AND FEW. SO WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER DRY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THIS TIME AND ONLY SHOW
A SLIGHT 10 PERCENT POPS OVER THE AREA.
PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT AND
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH EVEN AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
INTERIOR PORTIONS...DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS. SO HAVE ADDED FOG
WORDING TO THE ZONES FOR LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM...
THE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY
EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND...AS A COLD
FRONT OVER THE THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF COAST STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND
FLOW TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND WHICH
IN TURN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
SO WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS WEEKEND.
THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF COAST
STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS WILL KEEP A EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
THE WINDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN IN A NORTHEAST TO EAST
DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS TODAY INTO
FRIDAY...BEFORE SWINGING TO A EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THIS
WEEKEND. SO THE SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL REMAIN AT OR
BELOW 4 FEET TODAY INTO THIS WEEKEND...WHILE IN THE GULF WATERS
THE SEAS WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS. SO BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
GOOD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND OVER BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 87 72 87 73 / 10 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 86 75 87 76 / 10 10 10 10
MIAMI 87 74 88 75 / 10 10 10 10
NAPLES 87 70 88 72 / 10 - 10 -
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$