Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KMEG 161801
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1201 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017
Updated for aviation discussion
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1027 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017/ 
After a cool start, temperatures will continue to rise quickly
thanks to southerly winds and warm air advection. Current
temperatures are in the 40s. Highs will reach into the mid 50s and 
would not be surprised to see some upper 50s in a few locations.
Current forecast looks good right now, no updates are expected at
this point.
DISCUSSION... /issued 357 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017/ 
Short term forecast looks fairly unchanged featuring a quick 
round of rain late Saturday night into early Sunday, midweek looks
a bit more active than in previous forecasts and the extended 
forecast looks a bit less wintry. 
Current temperatures across most of the Midsouth are around 5 
degrees warmer than they were at this time last night. North 
Mississippi is the exception where it is slightly cooler. Most of
the region is in the upper 20s to low 30s. Southerly flow has 
returned to the Midsouth. As a result, afternoon highs are 
expected to surge into the middle 50s. Above normal temperatures 
and above freezing temperatures are expected over the weekend and 
through the upcoming work week. The warmest days look to be Monday
into Tuesday featuring highs in the low to middle 60s and lows in
the middle to upper 40s. 
On satellite we are already seeing a plume of clouds streaming
across the area from East Texas. We may see some sunshine early 
today...but expect more clouds than sun during the afternoon. A 
cutoff low over Southwest Mexico will eject northeastward as a 
secondary low dives southward along the West coast. The first of 
the two lows will move quickly across Texas, approaching the 
middle Mississippi River valley early Sunday morning. Brief heavy 
rain is expected across the Midsouth in association with this 
system...but brief is the key word here. By midday Sunday most of 
the rain will shift into middle Tennessee and North Alabama. 
Previously it looked like rainfall totals may approach or even 
exceed an inch. Unfortunately it now looks like we will be lucky 
to get one quarter to one half on an inch of rain. Monday looks 
dry and warm.
There is a lot of discrepancy in guidance midweek. The GFS keeps 
the storm track and associated precipitation mainly to our South 
while the ECMWF features much higher pops across the Midsouth. 
Will advertise highest pops across North Mississippi with a tight 
gradient of diminishing pops to the North and West. Strong or 
severe thunderstorms do not look likely. 
Leading into the Holiday weekend, there has been a bit of a role 
reversal among the GFS and ECMWF from last night. The GFS now 
features a cutoff low over West Mexico with the ECMWF the more 
progressive solution. Will maintain a forecast without 
freezing or frozen precipitation Friday into next weekend, but 
expect colder temperatures to return to the Midsouth during this 
VFR conds will prevail into the overnight period. Expect gusty SW
winds this afternoon at KJBR, KMEM and KMKL. Winds will diminish
early this evening. Clouds and showers will spread into the 
region mainly after midnight with conditions lowering to MVFR 
area wide by Sunday morning. Showers will taper off in the 
morning though low clouds will likely linger.