292
FXUS64 KMEG 161526
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1026 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY THROUGH TUPELO INTO
THE LOUISIANA. POST FRONTAL RAIN COVERS A GOOD POSITION OF THE
MIDSOUTH INCLUDING MOST OF WEST TENNESSEE...NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND
EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS MOST OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. MUCH COOLER AIR IS MOVING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S BEHIND THE
FRONT. STILL MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. GIVEN THE AREAL COVERAGE
ATTM AND THE LATEST HRRR HAVE UPPED POPS ACROSS MUCH THE SE HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
SJM
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013/
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR EVANSVILLE INDIANA TO
PINE BLUFF ARKANSAS. A LARGE SHIELD OF RAIN IS PUSHING NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN IS FURTHER NORTH
THAN WHAT THE GFS AND NAM INITIALIZED WITH THUS FOR THIS MORNINGS
FORECAST HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE LATEST HRRR RUN. THUS EXPECT RAIN
TO CONTINUE TO FALL OVER AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
CWA...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM CLARKSDALE MISSISSIPPI TO
JACKSON TENNESSEE THROUGH 10 AM. THEREAFTER...EXPECT RAIN TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. RAIN AND CLOUDS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL WITH A LOT OF LOCATIONS HAVING
TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM WHAT THEIR
MORNING LOWS ARE.
TONIGHT...EXPECT FRONT TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS THIS
EVENING. RAIN WILL SPREAD BACK NORTHWARD. ALTHOUGH A LOT OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS VERY LIGHT RAIN OR POSSIBLY DRIZZLE SO
EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
THURSDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL FINALLY PUSH THE FRONT EAST OF THE AREA.
EXPECT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND CLOUDS TO REMAIN AROUND AT LEAST
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH IN THE MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL
QUICKLY IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A LOT OF LOCATIONS
SEEING SUNSHINE BY THE END OF THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
MIDSOUTH. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO
DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW UPPER 30 READINGS ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOOKS LIKE THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO KEEP RAIN FROM SPREADING BACK INTO THE AREA. CAN/T RULE OUT THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF RAIN SKIRTING AREAS IN TALLAHATCHIE TO MONROE
COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI ON SATURDAY THUS HAVE LEFT SMALL POPS. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FROM THE NORTH. GFS SHOWS
THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH DRY WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS VERY LIGHT QPF
OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW HAVE JUST KEPT 20 POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE DAY SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO
REMOVE CHANCES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE BACK OVER THE CWA FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE
AND POSSIBLY NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI GETTING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT OR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS
WITH THE ECMWF BEING DRIER. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED 20 POPS FOR TUESDAY.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE BUT
LIKELY REMAIN MVFR AT ALL SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JBR WHERE
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE
NORTH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS TODAY...DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY
TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 63 55 69 47 / 80 30 20 10
MKL 62 54 66 40 / 90 30 20 10
JBR 65 49 67 42 / 30 20 10 10
TUP 69 57 67 47 / 90 50 30 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$