460
FXUS64 KMAF 161922
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
218 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A bit of re-enforcement to the sfc high pressure tonight in wake of
the mid level trof passing to the n. With the low clouds clearing
out and the sfc high there will be a good set-up for an unseasonably
cool night. Areas of fog will be possible too with the residual sfc
mstr. 12Z NAM12 sounding doesn't show too much fog, but the MOS and
general pattern does support it and will opt to include a mention.
Boundary layer will be well mixed Thursday and high temps will be
able to climb back into the 70s. Low clouds will be possible Friday
morning, but brief. Even warmer Friday ahead of the next cold front.
In wake of the front light precip will be possible across the NE and
farther to the S across the Lower Trans Pecos. Post frontal
conditions will also be on the windy side with tight MSLP gradient
Friday evening. Toward 12Z Sat light precip will be possible along
the e slope of mtns with upslope. As sfc anticyclone settles in Sat AM
and winds decrease it will be cool with low temps 35-40 for areas n
of I-20. Surface high may be slow to exit Sat PM, thus still cool
with 85h temps around 11C across the cntrl PB. It will be warmer Sun
though underneath weakish wly mid level flow and sfc pressure falls.
The flow aloft will evolve into a split flow regime by early next
week with the northern stream being dominant, but mainly over the
eastern Conus. A broad, weak upper trough may form over the
southwestern Conus then, if not a weak cutoff low. Models are not
only disparate on whether such a feature will exist, but on how deep
the ua trough will be over the eastern Conus. These features will
determine whether we have any shot at precipitation Monday through
Wednesday, but when another cold front will move into the region.
For now, will leave isolated thunderstorms in the forecast for
Monday due to any shortwave troughs traversing the forecast area,
possibly accompanied by a modicum of subtropical mid and upper level
moisture. The rest of the forecast will remain dry thereafter due
to the uncertainty with the southwestern Conus trough. Will keep
temperatures near normal Monday through Wednesday, but will drop a
cold front into the area Wednesday night as models do advertise a
pretty chilly airmass dropping south through the Conus by then.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 44 74 56 72 / 0 0 0 10
BIG SPRING TX 45 74 56 72 / 0 0 10 10
CARLSBAD NM 43 76 46 75 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 52 77 58 80 / 10 10 0 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 50 78 56 77 / 10 10 0 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 47 70 53 68 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 42 74 51 67 / 0 0 0 10
MARFA TX 42 75 47 76 / 10 10 0 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 45 75 57 73 / 0 0 0 10
ODESSA TX 46 75 57 73 / 0 0 0 10
WINK TX 47 78 55 80 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$