191
FXUS64 KMAF 130820
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
314 AM CDT TUE AUG 13 2013
.DISCUSSION...
The subtropical ridge is transitioning to a wwd position and by model
consensus it is to set up INVOF far w TX by late today. Meanwhile
well developed NW mid level flow will extend from the front range of
the Rocky Mtns into the srn Plains. Steering flow this far s is not
very favorable for convection in the plains and at most today isold
convection in the far w CWFA will be about it. 85h temperatures in
the u20C for most of the area will yield highs mostly in the u90s
across the plains. A cold front will be moving swd thru South Plains
tonight, aided by convection. This boundary may briefly increase
potential for storms late tonight across SE NM/N PB. There are good
indications that this front will be across the PB/SE NM Wed AM and
that hier surface dwpnts will be post frontal. NAM12 continues to be
most aggressive with the front as a focus for tstms and with
noticeably cooler temperatures. Current forecast has this handled
well and will make only minor adjustments upward across the nrn
CWFA. NW flow develops moreso Thur with an increased chance for late
night tstms at least across the nrn CWFA and will opt to increase
PoPs. GFS is warm outlier with the 85h temperatures in the U20C
range. Pattern will favorable for thermal ridge to be far the w and
we tend favor the just below normal temperatures in the forecast.
Fri the NW-N mid level flow looks favorable for shrtwv trof and
perusal of 3h wind speed data supports a 40kt speed max coming down.
Model QPF is hinting at convective development with ECMWF a farther
n solution and GFS/Canadian further s and a little later with high
temperatures back above normal Fri. Thru Wed-Fri the 0-6km bulk
shear is 25-40kts across the nrn CWFA and thus some of these storms
may be strong/severe. Pattern tends back to the warmer/drier type
Sat/Sun with low level mstr decreasing, exception may be across the
nrn CWFA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 96 71 89 69 / 10 10 20 20
BIG SPRING TX 95 71 90 69 / 0 10 20 20
CARLSBAD NM 96 71 93 70 / 10 10 20 20
DRYDEN TX 96 72 97 72 / 0 0 20 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 96 70 96 70 / 10 10 20 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 90 71 86 67 / 10 10 20 10
HOBBS NM 95 68 87 68 / 10 10 30 20
MARFA TX 91 61 88 60 / 10 10 20 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 97 71 91 69 / 10 10 20 20
ODESSA TX 97 71 90 70 / 10 10 20 20
WINK TX 100 72 96 70 / 10 10 20 20
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$