Area Forecast Discussion


946 
FXUS64 KLZK 161346 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
846 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
.UPDATE...
JUST A QUICK MORNING UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
RAIN IS STILL BISECTING THE STATE FROM TEXARKANA TO LITTLE ROCK TO
JONESBORO. THE COLD FRONT IS STILLING CHUGGING SLOWLY ACROSS THE
SE ARKANSAS...AND EXPECT THE RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE IS SPREADING NORTHEAST OUT OF TX. AS SUCH
HAVE LEFT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE AND WILL REEVALUATE
LATER THIS MORNING.
PRECIP WILL GENERALLY DECREASE FROM THE NORTH AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER WILL
REMAIN...SUPPRESSING HIGHS TODAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013/ 
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
AVIATION...
AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RA ONGOING THIS MORNING AS FRONT
CONTINUES TO DROP SE. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS IMPACTING CENTRAL
AND SRN SITES...WITH MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS SEEN THIS MORNING.
FURTHER NORTH...DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE STATE...WITH RA
ENDING OVER THE PAST FEW HRS...AS WELL AS IMPROVING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AT MOST SITE. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHRA COULD BE SEEN
OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES OVERHEAD. 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013/ 
SHORT TERM..TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN BETWEEN THE MODELS THIS
MORNING WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY.
NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS WILL BE USED FOR THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES
WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION WRF/HRRR USED FOR THE FINER DETAILS.
OVERALL...THE PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND A BLEND OF ALL THESE MODELS WILL BE USED THIS MORNING.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG A MENA TO 
CLINTON TO EVENING SHADE LINE. FRONT IS PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW 
AND WILL BE A SLOW MOVER...AND NOT EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE STATE UNTIL 
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF 
MOISTURE EXTENDING WELL INTO TEXAS ALONG WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ROCKIES ALL THE WAY TO THE 
GREAT LAKES STATES. 
TROF WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE BEST 
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION REMAINING ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE 
BOUNDARY WHERE THE HIGHEST PWATS LIE AND THE AIRMASS IS BASICALLY 
SATURATED. HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST 
PART OF THE STATE BUT WILL NEED TO UP POPS THIS MORNING CENTRAL AND 
NORTH BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
WILL EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM AS MODELS CONTINUE TO 
BRING A GOOD SLUG OF MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AND SOME PARTS OF THE 
SOUTHWEST HAVE SEEN IN EXCESS OF THREE INCHES. LOCALIZED HEAVY 
AMOUNTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT 
ANTICIPATED.
ANOTHER...CONSIDERABLY WEAKER...MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH 
THE PREVAILING FLOW TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CURRENT 
MODELS HAVE THIS FEATURE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND POPS WILL BE 
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY WHILE HOLDING ON TO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS 
OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FROM MID DAY 
THURSDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY UNTIL ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARRIVES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. 
MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS 
CAN BE JUSTIFIED.
CONCERNING TEMPS...CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP READINGS IN 
CHECK TODAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL MOST 
AREAS.    OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL 
NORMS. MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.
 
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH INFLUENCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL TO ERN CONUS. THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY EARLY
IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE SFC HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST...AND FLOW WILL BECOME SRLY. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS
REBOUND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS WARMING FROM NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. BY LATE IN THE FORECAST...A
SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE SOUTH AROUND THIS LARGE UPPER TROUGH...WITH
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE
PLAINS INTO AR BEHIND A COLD FRONT. FOR NOW...CHANCES FOR PRECIP
WILL REMAIN LOW WITH THIS FRONT AS MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS LIMITED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...BEING SEVERAL DAYS OUT...THIS
SCENARIO COULD CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     62  47  67  43 /  30  20  10  10 
CAMDEN AR         57  51  71  46 /  90  30  10  10 
HARRISON AR       61  45  65  42 /  10  20  10  10 
HOT SPRINGS AR    58  49  69  44 /  60  30  10  10 
LITTLE ROCK   AR  60  49  69  44 /  60  30  10  10 
MONTICELLO AR     60  52  71  45 /  90  30  20  10 
MOUNT IDA AR      58  49  69  44 /  60  30  10  10 
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  63  46  65  42 /  10  20  10  10 
NEWPORT AR        61  48  68  43 /  30  20  10  10 
PINE BLUFF AR     58  51  70  45 /  80  30  10  10 
RUSSELLVILLE AR   62  48  68  43 /  30  20  10  10 
SEARCY AR         60  48  69  44 /  40  30  10  10 
STUTTGART AR      60  50  70  45 /  70  30  10  10 
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GRANT-HOT 
SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-OUACHITA-PIKE.
&&
$$
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