Area Forecast Discussion


334 
FXUS61 KLWX 261433
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1033 AM EDT Fri Aug 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains off the coast through tonight. A weak cold
front will cross the region this morning. High pressure will
return for the weekend. Another front may slowly slide southward
into the area by the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...Mid-upper level ridge will continue
to build over the region today leading to hot and dry conditions
through the weekend. Dry NW flow has established over the area as
a weak front has pushed through. Temps in the mid 90s today with
heat indices around 100 or low 100s.
Tonight...drier air will gradually slide southward from the north as
high pressure builds in. There may still be a little patchy fog in
the favored spots. Lows will not be quite as warm as this
morning's...but it will still be warm for this time of year.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level ridge basically sits over Virginia through Sunday
night. Surface high pressure gradually shifts eastward to our
north allowing winds to shift to northeast...then southeast by the
end of the weekend. This may bring some low clouds into the area
but not sure of this at all. Otherwise...the front will dissipate
just to our south over the weekend and only slight cooling and
drying of the air mass is expected. Basically...not as bad as
today...but still hotter than normal. Thunderstorms look to be
suppressed by the ridge and lack of a trigger...with any risk
confined to the highest ridges to our west.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Continued warmth expected for much of next week as high pressure
remains over the east coast to end the month of August. Highs
should be in the upper 80s/around 90. Precipitation chances look
to be in the chance range at best for much of the week - things
will primarily be dry. 
But as September begins it does appear that a change will be in
store..actually beyond the scope of this forecast. Both Euro and
GFS show and upper level low deepening near Nova Scotia next
Friday which would bring a halt to the above average temperatures.
In addition a cold front would likely be moving through the Mid
Atlantic next Thursday or Friday...giving region a better chance
for convection.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Patchy fog possible early this morning mainly CHO and MRB. Could
be a little around IAD as well but think it should stay VFR with
just some patchy ground fog. VFR today with only a slight risk of
a t-storm down near CHO. More of the same fog-wise tonight and
Saturday night. Otherwise VFR thru the weekend with no significant
t-storm risk. Winds mainly light with gusts mostly 15 knots or
less...starting W to WNW today...then NE Saturday..and shifting to
the SE Sunday.
VFR conditions expected during the first part of next week.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon/evening.
&&
.MARINE...
Southerly channelling is diminishing as the front approaches so
current SCA drops off soon. Front sliding southward into the area
today may bring af ew NW gusts close to 20 knots. However...am not
confident about SCA conditions occurring so have held off on SCA
for later today. Should be relatively light winds over the weekend
as high pressure slides past to the north...with winds mostly NE
on Saturday shifting more SE by later Sunday. No significan risk
of t-storms thru Sunday night.
Winds expected to remain below SCA values Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record highs are not out of the question today. Here are the
records for today:
Site                           Record  Date(s)
Washington (Reagan National)     97    1948
Baltimore (BWI/Marshall)        101    1948
Washington (Dulles)              95    1998/1993/1975
Ranking of summer 2016 in terms of average temperature (JUN 1 - AUG 25)
Site         RankAverage Temperature
DC  3 (tie with 2012)80.4
Balt          19 (tie with 2 other years) 77.2
IAD  3 77.2
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ABW
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...RCM/ABW
MARINE...RCM/ABW
CLIMATE...RCM/ABW