Area Forecast Discussion


137 
FXUS61 KLWX 190840
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
340 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE
REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT...THEN
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONGER LOW
CROSSING THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. 
MULTIPLE VORT LOBES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WESTERLY FLOW 
ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE CO LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND 
MID-WEST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY. 
A TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN REGION WILL SWING THROUGH THE 
MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING AND MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL EXIT TO THE 
EAST. CLEARING IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST 
ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AS A UPSLOPE 
COMPONENT CAUSES ENHANCEMENT. ISOLATED FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THIS 
MORNING. 
SUBTLE RIDGING ALOFT WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE 
PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION. FCST MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL 
TODAY RESULTING IN THE 30S IN THE MTNS AND LOW TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. 
DRY AND CALM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. FCST MIN TEMPS IN THE 20S 
ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY THEN EXIT OFF THE 
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHERN STREAM IS MOISTURE STARVED AND WILL 
NOT PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ONE. IN ADDITION...QPF ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ONE LOOKS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CWA. LIGHT 
PRECIP MAY BRUSH THE SOUTHWEST TIER /HIGHLAND COUNTY TO ALBEMARLE
COUNTY/...OTHERWISE CWA WILL BE DRY WITH SOME CLOUDS. FOLLOWED
BLEND OF SREFS/MAV FOR MAXIMA AND SREFS/MET FOR MINIMA.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SHOULD BE SOME 
SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND CLIMO. 
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOMEWHAT OF A WEDGE DEVELOPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE LEADS TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT
THEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY. MUCH OF THE PRECIP
LOOKS TO BE LIQUID BUT IF IT ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH MONDAY THEN THE
EVENT MAY BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX.
THIS WOULD EXIT MONDAY NIGHT BUT MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH 
AFFECTING THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-WEEK. FOLLOWED LATEST WPC 
GRIDS WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...P-TYPE 
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. 10K FT CIGS WILL MOVE 
EASTWARD THIS MORNING AND CLEARING IS EXPECTED. NW 5-10KT WITH GUSTS 
UP TO 18KT ARE EXPECTED TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD 
TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME NW-N 5KTS OR LESS.
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FLIGHT 
RESTRICTIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WEDGE SETS UP AND WAVE 
OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS PRECIP.
&&
.MARINE...
NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE 
WEST. A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT 
CONDITIONS FOR THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND MD BAY SOUTH OF POOLES 
ISLAND TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS SHOULD 
SUBSIDE BY EVENING.
GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
     ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS/BPP
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...HAS/BPP
MARINE...HAS/BPP