Area Forecast Discussion


932 
FXUS61 KLWX 040136 CCA 
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
936 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDES EASTWARD ALONG IT. THIS LOW WILL CLEAR THE AREA FRIDAY
TAKING THE FRONT WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT
AND DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STORMS OVER SCNTRL PA HAVE PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED. OTHER STORMS
OVER WRN PA EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY EAST AND STAY WELL NORTH. IT
DOESN'T LOOK LIKE WE'LL SEE ANYTHING OVERNIGHT BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE AND OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.
CDFNT WILL CROSS THE AREA TOMORROW BUT IT WILL SLOW DOWN. IT
APPEARS STORMS COULD FIRE OVER SRN MD TUE AFTERNOON. SPC HAS THIS
AREA HIGHLIGHTED UNDER SLIGHT RISK OF SVR STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND SHIFT SLOWLY EAST FROM THERE...REACHING THE DC METRO
THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER AND DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN MANY AREAS.
SUNSHINE WILL ALSO PREDOMINATE WEDNESDAY...BUT AN APPROACHING
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL CAUSE CLOUDS TO INCREASE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN
TO ENCROACH FROM WEST TO EAST. CLOUDS WILL TEND TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THURSDAY BUT DEW POINTS WILL RISE
BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 60S IN MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF THE TIMING OF A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH STILL DIFFERS FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO
RUN. FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN A PSEUDO WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON IF THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA PASSES NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE AREA.
THE LOW WILL PASS EAST AND OUT TO SEA...LIKELY BRINGING THE FRONT
WITH IT BY THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN OVER THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR TONIGHT AND TUE. SOME STORMS COULD FIRE SOUTHEAST OF DC TUE
AFTERNOON BUT ODDS SEEM LOW ATTM FOR ANY OF THE TERMINALS TO GET
IMPACTED.
VFR TUE NIGHT-THU MORNING ALL TERMINALS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT.
SUB-VFR LIKELY IN SHRA/ISO TSRA THU AFT-FRI AS LOW PRES MOVES
ACROSS. WIND SPEED/DIRECTION FORECAST UNCERTAIN WITH LOW MOVING
VERY NEAR THE AREA. VFR SHOULD RETURN ALONG W/ NWLY FLOW AROUND 10
KT SAT.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ON THE WATERS BUT MODELS SHOW WINDS
STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT OVER THE LOWER-MID BAY DUE TO SRLY
CHANNELING. MODIFIED SCA TO REMOVE MIDDLE AND UPPER POTOMAC. WINDS
COULD GUST TO SCA UPPER BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND TUE AFTERNOON.
SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THAT AREA.
SUB SCA WINDS WITH DRY CONDITIONS TUE NIGHT-THU MORNING UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE.
WIND FORECAST OVER THE WATERS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THURSDAY AFT
THRU FRIDAY DUE TO LOW PRESSURE PASSING VERY NEAR OR OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...SOME GUSTS IN SOUTHERLY CHANNELING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW TRACK PASSES
FURTHER NORTH. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY
OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...HAS/RCM
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...RCM/LFR/DFH
MARINE...RCM/LFR/DFH