135
FXUS64 KLUB 162021
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
321 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
.SHORT TERM...
SHORT WAVE TROF/UPPER LOW IS IN PROCESS OF LIFTING NE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK LIFT ON TAIL END OF WAVE HAS
BEEN GENERATING ISOLATED VERY LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BUT EVEN THAT ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE WANING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS BEGINNING TO BREAK UP ACROSS THE
WESTERN PANHANDLE AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 00-03Z THIS
EVENING AFTER WHICH CLEAR OR CLEARING SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
LIGHT WINDS.
SOME CONCERN FOR FROST OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE AND
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S WITH RH/S INCREASING AOA 90 PERCENT. NEGATIVE
FACTORS FOR THIS INCLUDE LIGHT WEST WINDS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT
WHICH LIMIT WINDOW FOR HIGHER HUMIDITIES AS SOME SUBTLE DRYING TAKES
PLACE TOWARD SUNRISE. THIS DOES BEAR WATCHING IF WINDS ARE LIGHTER
AND RH/S HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED. OTHERWISE A RATHER COOL
NIGHT IN WEST TEXAS WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM 35 DEG SW PANHANDLE TO
AROUND 43 IN THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. MUCH WARMER ON THURSDAY
THANKS TO NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPING WINDS ENHANCING
LOW LEVEL WARMING. LEANED MORE TOWARD HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE TEMPS
THURSDAY GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS.
&&
.LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BEGIN WITH A BROAD UA TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM SRN CANADA/NRN PLAINS TO ACROSS NRN NM FRI MORNING...THAT IS
SET TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD. CONCURRENTLY AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW WILL
TAKE SHAPE LEADING TO PWATS INCREASING TO 0.50-1.00 INCH THU
NIGHT/FRI MORNING...WITH HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT EXHIBITED ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE BEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS
ANTICIPATED TO IMPINGE ON THE THE NWRN ZONES FRI AFTN AND SHIFT SE
OF STONEWALL COUNTY AOA 19/03Z. A 1025 MB SFC RIDGE DRIVING THE
FRONT WILL PROMOTE PRESSURE RISES OF 5-8 MB/3 HRS WHICH SUGGESTS
SLIGHTLY BREEZY NORTH TO NERLY WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH AS SUGGESTED
BY MEX GUIDANCE. TEMPS COULD BE TRICKY AS IT WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT IF FOLLOWING THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TIMING...HIGHS WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE UPPER
50S ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES TO GENERALLY IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE. A BIT
MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY PROVIDED BY WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT...COMBINED
WITH ADEQUATE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING COLLIDING WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMMENCING FRI
MORNING /MORE SO OFF THE CAPROCK WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AXIS WILL
RESIDE/. THE NAM IS THE OUTLIER WITH A RELATIVELY DRY
FORECAST...THUS CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS MAY BE A BIT
UNDERDONE. BEST POPS WILL SHIFT SEWRD THROUGH FRI NIGHT /WITH BELOW
MENTIONABLE POPS BY SAT MORNING/ AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE FA LATE FRI
NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING...WHERE CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS AND THE ADVECTION OF 850 MB TEMPS OF 6-8 DEGREES
CELSIUS...WILL ENCOURAGE TEMPS TO DROP TO AOA FREEZING ACROSS THE
FAR SWRN TX PANHANDLE TO UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. AS
SUCH...ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS SUCH AS A FROST ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
ENTERTAINED. BY SAT AFTN AND THROUGH SUN...AMPLIFIED UA RIDGING
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WILL VEER FLOW ALOFT TO THE WNW...WHILST A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN HEIGHT FIELDS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LEE
TROUGHING ESTABLISHES THE RETURN OF SFC SRLY FLOW AND THUS A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND /70S BY SUN/. EARLY NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER UA DISTURBANCE
MOVING ESE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS WILL SEND DOWN A WEAK COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...THOUGH MODELS DIFFER WITH
WHETHER ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENTICAL FORCING WILL BE
ENOUGH TO GARNER PRECIP /GFS IS OPTIMISTIC VERSUS THE DRY ECMWF/.
THEREAFTER...UA RIDGING ACROSS THE FAR WRN CONUS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST...CAUSING FLOW ALOFT TO VEER TO A MORE NWRLY COMPONENT. AN UA
DISTURBANCE MOVING SE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS WILL SEND YET
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON WED...BUT THIS TIME BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT PRECIP DEVELOPING OFF THE CAPROCK. DUE TO WILL
LEAN TOWARDS SILENT WX GRIDS BEYOND FRI NIGHT ATTM...AND AWAIT TO
ENSURE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. AS A RESULT HAVE SHOWED LITTLE
VARIATION IN TEMPS EARLY TO MID-WEEK /UPPER 60S TO LOWER TO MID
70S/. KEEP IN MIND...TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED LATE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD IF WET FRONTAL PASSAGES COME INTO FRUITION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 35 71 43 56 32 / 10 0 10 20 10
TULIA 36 70 46 57 36 / 10 0 10 20 10
PLAINVIEW 37 71 47 61 36 / 10 0 10 20 10
LEVELLAND 39 73 47 65 37 / 0 0 10 20 10
LUBBOCK 40 72 50 66 38 / 10 0 10 20 20
DENVER CITY 41 75 49 69 40 / 0 0 10 10 10
BROWNFIELD 40 74 50 68 39 / 0 0 10 20 20
CHILDRESS 38 72 48 63 40 / 10 0 20 30 20
SPUR 42 72 49 67 40 / 10 0 10 20 20
ASPERMONT 43 73 49 70 40 / 10 0 10 30 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
06/29